The tracking of Ciara does seem to be slightly further north on the latest Arpege runs. Earlier runs had it just clipping the north Irish coast, now it's staying up more level with Lewis. Has only had a marginal effect on the winds in the south though, albeit in the right direction, and the timing for the peak winds also seems to be fairly consistent too. 3-4pm seems the worst of it down here on Arpege, MetO puts the peak slightly earlier.
The adjustment north has if anything slightly emphasised a second band across the country further north though. Looks like anywhere from the northern half of Wales across to the Wash, and all the way up to the Borders is getting singled out for the worst of it at the moment. I'm presuming (hoping) that the warning further south is primary due to the coastal exposure to the more southerly component of the gale on the Sunday afternoon, and that the ranges of hills between us and the sea will knock the edge of it! The location of the amber warning blob would suggest that.
Given that, I would expect a second amber warning to appear further north soon.
Edited by user
07 February 2020 17:12:14
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Reason: Not specified
Location: Reigate, Surrey 105m ASL
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