The tracking of Ciara does seem to be slightly further north on the latest Arpege runs. Earlier runs had it just clipping the north Irish coast, now it's staying up more level with Lewis. Has only had a marginal effect on the winds in the south though, albeit in the right direction, and the timing for the peak winds also seems to be fairly consistent too. 3-4pm seems the worst of it down here on Arpege, MetO puts the peak slightly earlier.

The adjustment north has if anything slightly emphasised a second band across the country further north though. Looks like anywhere from the northern half of Wales across to the Wash, and all the way up to the Borders is getting singled out for the worst of it at the moment. I'm presuming (hoping) that the warning further south is primary due to the coastal exposure to the more southerly component of the gale on the Sunday afternoon, and that the ranges of hills between us and the sea will knock the edge of it! The location of the amber warning blob would suggest that.

Given that, I would expect a second amber warning to appear further north soon.

---

I reckon the strongest wind speed/gust will be recorded on Angelsey

or/and The Needles at the Isle of Wight.

---

 

Yes, didn't Patrick Moore's observatory get flattened by one a few years back?

A "few years" indeed - Jan 1998. See the Beeb report on that tornado here. There was another much more serious one in Selsey in 1986.

---

 

That area you mention seems to be prone to more activity, maybe because of the topography in the area. There are quite a few tornadoes that form in the Selsey area.

The solent region is a natural basin 'U' shaped with the hills of the south IOW and the south downs on the mainland.

The area around here is known as ‘Solent Alley’ and I’ve investigated several weak tornadoes over the years. The coastline east of the IOW is particularly vulnarable.

---

I reckon we will see gusts over 100 mph at Battery point on the Isle of Wight.

Possibly or at Thorney... nationally who knows.

We’ll probably have the usual 60-70mph gusts and I’ll probably be using my screen wash well inland to wash the sea spray off the windscreen.
Swell is expected to be around the 20ft mark in the bays. Interesting storm surge expected with the spring tides.

---

 

 

Strange that it's only the SE, when other places (per GFS at any rate) have stronger mean and gust speeds, for longer. I'm thinking N then S  Wales, parts of NW England & SW Scotland.

I say strange...  

 

 

But the strong winds are going to hit the S.E ,the important bit of the country. Strong winds up North merely mean a few flat caps and Black Pudding blowing away

ECM once again 70 to 80 mph over most of England and Wales.  The current Amber zone is just bollox and should be expanded to most of England and Wales tomorrow,.

 

---

 

The English channel has a thing for funneling wind energy, and the solent channel even more so. I suspect the strongest gust in to be just east of the IOW in a SWW gale.

.     The Needles on the western tip also often  records some of the highest gusts 

I see several people on the other side are head wobbling over the ‘limited’ area of the current Amber warning for Sunday.
These warnings will be updated and extended tomorrow as the data is reviewed and analysed. The publication of the current Amber is based on certainty in advance of the event and not on ‘regional bias’ or any of the other silly reasons being spouted.

---

I wonder if this is a January 1990 scenario.

The current amber warning fits the 1987 event more.  I was at Kingston Poly at the time and it was a real challenge getting home.

The Burns Day event  hit a bit further north and clobbered us here - we lost a lot of the roof of our old farm house  and the power was off for nearly a week (unheard of since in this area).

 

 

 

---

But the strong winds are going to hit the S.E ,the important bit of the country. Strong winds up North merely mean a few flat caps and Black Pudding blowing away

 

But will nobody think of the whippets?

---

I am deeply depressed about this as I know my house is old and in disrepair  there will be damage. The plastic panels on the garage are 30 years old and already weak. I would expect some to come off. But I guess that means getting it repaired and insurance will cover it, but it’s just the hassle of it all, and hoping it doesn’t rain too much before its repaired 

---

Looking at the latest GFS there appears to be no let up in forecast wind gusts. This looks like a 6-9hr event. With the worst winds forecast 12:00-18:00.

Gusts widely from 70-90mph. In Stratford there are a lot of tall buildings. Even on a windy day the wind is often strong due to tunnelling. Around the City of London and Canary Whalf there could be a fair bit of damage this weekend. Most of those builds have gone up in the last 10-15 years.

I feel a significant noteworthy event this weekend. Time to batten down the hatches.

I suspect the two premier league matches and other sporting events to be cancelled. Does anyone have the latest ECM data

---

Looking at the latest GFS there appears to be no let up in forecast wind gusts. This looks like a 6-9hr event. With the worst winds forecast 12:00-18:00.

Gusts widely from 70-90mph. In Stratford there are a lot of tall buildings. Even on a windy day the wind is often strong due to tunnelling. Around the City of London and Canary Whalf there could be a fair bit of damage this weekend. Most of those builds have gone up in the last 10-15 years.

I feel a significant noteworthy event this weekend. Time to batten down the hatches.

I suspect the two premier league matches and other sporting events to be cancelled. Does anyone have the latest ECM data

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/united-kingdom/gusts-3h/20200209-1500z.html 

---

 

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/united-kingdom/gusts-3h/20200209-1500z.html 

Cheera Doc. 

125kph gusts forecast for London and the SE. That’s touching 78mph. Crazy

---

Has anyone seen this 18z run for gusts at 192 hours ?

Off the scale stuff with gusts probably in excess of 110 mph in the Channel

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2020020718/192-289UK.GIF?07-18

 

---

Has anyone seen this 18z run for gusts at 192 hours ?

Off the scale stuff with gusts probably in excess of 110 mph in the Channel

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2020020718/192-289UK.GIF?07-18

 

I have. Unfortunately.

And yet ECM (and other "lesser known models") couldn't be any more different with high pressure trying to move in from the continent at about that same time frame. Just hope for our sakes that it'll be GFS who is going to end up being wrong on this occasion, not sure we'll be able to take much more punishment after Sunday's gales.

---

I have. Unfortunately.

And yet ECM (and other "lesser known models") couldn't be any more different with high pressure trying to move in from the continent at about that same time frame. Just hope for our sakes that it'll be GFS who is going to end up being wrong on this occasion, not sure we'll be able to take much more punishment after Sunday's gales.

...These are nervy times.

---