Gfs ens can’t see Sunday just yet either a major victory for the lady or a dismal fail 65 Tops on those for London

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=12&ext=fr&mode=13&sort=0

I have. Unfortunately.

And yet ECM (and other "lesser known models") couldn't be any more different with high pressure trying to move in from the continent at about that same time frame. Just hope for our sakes that it'll be GFS who is going to end up being wrong on this occasion, not sure we'll be able to take much more punishment after Sunday's gales.

Wales gets hammered on the 18z GFS, but pretty much every county in England gets 70 mph gusts at some point on Sunday.  Remarkable!

 

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Violent storm at around that time n/e Scotland very nasty indeed

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=48

 

 

Gfs ens can’t see Sunday just yet either a major victory for the lady or a dismal fail 65 Tops on those for London

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=12&ext=fr&mode=13&sort=0

Indeed, virtually all the stamps shows that high pressure ridging but the op still shows that vicious Channel low: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=192, so it is an "outlier"? 

Oh well, hopefully it'll be nothing more than a bad dream when I wake up tomorrow morning. The upcoming Sunday storm is unnerving as it is, can't be doing with any more after that, like what has been happening in Feb 2014. 

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Severe charts for n/w as short wave tries to develop some of the worst I’ve ever seen H @ Bailey?

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=84

yup big H at Bailey there.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The thing is Ian I find the weather interesting but to get a trusted roofer or the tiles are going to be like gold dust with excessive cost for us all have plucker insurance but that does not guarantee anything.

Indeed, virtually all the stamps shows that high pressure ridging but the op still shows that vicious Channel low: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=192, so it is an "outlier"? 

Oh well, hopefully it'll be nothing more than a bad dream when I wake up tomorrow morning. The upcoming Sunday storm is unnerving as it is, can't be doing with any more after that, like what has been happening in Feb 2014. 

Has anyone seen this 18z run for gusts at 192 hours ?

Off the scale stuff with gusts probably in excess of 110 mph in the Channel

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2020020718/192-289UK.GIF?07-18

 

150kmph is only 93mph so not sure how you've arrived in excess of 110mph which is 177kmph

No change from GFS and ecm this morning. Both have 70 to 80 mph widely. Ecm has 100 mph for north Wales and nearly 90 in the channel. 

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Met Office forecast for my local area not that severe compared to what the models are showing.....

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gcpu2mjnb#2020-02-09 

Is that data known to be accurate? Mean wind speeds of 25mph & gusts to 50 ish at odds with the GFS, ECM.......

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No change this morning. If anything the ensembles have upped the mean sustained speeds as the rest of the pack catch up with the operational. 23 m/s equates to a steady wind of 52 mph.

Should the rest of the pack continue to play catch up with the operational a violent week can be expected.

A signal appearing for another storm in the early hours of Thursday 13th.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49909&model=gfs&var=9&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1

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Met Office forecast for my local area not that severe compared to what the models are showing.....

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gcpu2mjnb#2020-02-09

Is that data known to be accurate? Mean wind speeds of 25mph & gusts to 50 ish at odds with the GFS, ECM.......

 

I don’t see a notable inconsistency.

Besides “to” generally indicates an upper bound. Most would describe 56, 58, 57 as “...gusts to 60 ish...”. 

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I don’t see a notable inconsistency.

Besides “to” generally indicates an upper bound. Most would describe 56, 58, 57 as “...gusts to 60 ish...”. 

 

Thanks Ian, I was fearing a lot worse in my area, gusts to 50-60mph max not too bad........

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Thanks Ian, I was fearing a lot worse in my area, gusts to 50-60mph max not too bad........

I’ve studied these events for many years. A significant majority of the damage (trees, buildings) with these storms occurs from one or two rogue peak gusts (often associated with trough passage or in rare occasions sting jet impacts).

In a general swathe of 60mph gusts you might get a rogue local 70mph gust and off go your ridge tiles.

Here in The Solent I’m advising against travel tomorrow afternoon but the ‘highlight’ could be the coast. The overtopping still high tide is going to be something else.

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Thanks Ian, I was fearing a lot worse in my area, gusts to 50-60mph max not too bad........

 

Obviously we have to wait and see but most of the models and the Beeb forecasts suggest 60 to 80 mph for your area.  These automated forecasts are notoriously poor for this type of event.

 

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150kmph is only 93mph so not sure how you've arrived in excess of 110mph which is 177kmph

Only 93mph? Phew, panic over 

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The Aperge model shows gusts to 130kph in some parts of the South/SE.

What time are the warnings updated. I wonder if we may get a red warning issued.

Neil, are you hearing anything?

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The gustiness encourages and amplifies oscillation especially larger trees, that's what tears stuff down.
The actual peak gust figure or sustained speed isn't a good guide to how damaging it will be.

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Met Office forecast for my local area not that severe compared to what the models are showing.....

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/gcpu2mjnb#2020-02-09

Is that data known to be accurate? Mean wind speeds of 25mph & gusts to 50 ish at odds with the GFS, ECM.......

We get 50mph+ gusts all the time (one this morning already hardly noticed) Met office is usually very close both timing and highest gust but only if you look shortly before.
They are continually revising it and most times gradually less than suggested 2 or 3 days before - but not always

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The Aperge model shows gusts to 130kph in some parts of the South/SE.

What time are the warnings updated. I wonder if we may get a red warning issued.

Neil, are you hearing anything?

Amber will be expanded in this morning’s revision round. Red unlikely but you never know - if it is it will use the 12Z or 18Z data and real time to assess the very latest.

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Obviously we have to wait and see but most of the models and the Beeb forecasts suggest 60 to 80 mph for your area.  These automated forecasts are notoriously poor for this type of event.

 

The amount of friends I see using the BBC weather app & taking it for gospel......then it's spectacularly wrong! 

I was hoping the MetO website forecasts were different but it seems they're not! 

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