BBC monthly outlook
Summary
Mainly mild with spells of wet and windy weather
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Saturday 11 January – Sunday 19 January
Mixed this weekend and stormy at times next week
The weather this week has been wet and windy at times, but there have been some drier and calmer periods too. Temperatures have, on the whole, been above normal for the time of year. There will be little change to this pattern this weekend.
Saturday will be a very windy day across all areas of the UK, with gales and severe gales for some and with rain moving south-eastwards to affect all but the south east of England during the day. This rain will be heavy in some areas. The rain will continue south-eastwards overnight and by Sunday morning, will only be affecting the South East, with most of the rest of the UK set to enjoy and dry, bright start to the day. The rest of Sunday will see sunny spells in most areas, but there will be the chance of showers. It will be less windy than Saturday.
Next week will be unsettled with weather systems moving in from the Atlantic at times to give us further spells of wet and windy weather. After a chilly but bright morning in most areas on Monday, the first of the Atlantic systems will start to move in during the second half of the day, with all areas cloudy and windy with a spell of rain. Tuesday looks likely it could be even windier with gales or severe gales possible and widespread, locally heavy rain moving in from the west.
Wednesday should bring a respite, but another Atlantic weather system is likely to affect us on Thursday and Friday before conditions turn a little less wet and windy next weekend as high pressure to the south starts to exert an influence.
Monday 20 January – Sunday 26 January
Mild, wet and windy
The first half of the week should be relatively dry and calm compared to this week as high pressure centred to our south become more of an influence on our weather for a time. Temperatures look milder than average too.
The relatively settled weather isn't set to last though, as the ridge of high pressure will decline around mid-week, and the end of the week will see more of an Atlantic influence on our weather. The UK as a whole looks wetter and windier than average, with the north and west generally wettest, albeit with spells of rain pushing into southern and eastern areas at times. There will be a similar pattern to the winds - the south and east will see spells of windy weather but the north and west will be the windiest part of the country.
Temperatures are set to remain above normal for the time of year in all areas, so there will be a reduced risk of overnight frosts compared to the average winter. That said, there will still be a chance of the odd cooler night.
Monday 27 January – Sunday 9 February
Becoming less unsettled in February?
There will be little change in the pattern as we move through the last few days of January. The weather across the UK looks wetter and windier than average, with the north and west generally wettest and windiest, whilst the south and east are drier and calmer. Temperatures will still be above normal for the time of year.
As we move into the start of February, we see a slight change in the pattern merging. Low pressure systems which have been tracking across northern and Europe are likely to track a bit further southwards into Europe. This would mean that although still unsettled, we would see less sustained wet and windy weather and should see some drier and calmer periods.
However, after quite a long run of temperatures either at or above normal, it looks as though February will see temperatures generally near normal, or perhaps a little below normal at times. It is worth noting that we still don't see any signs of any sustained spells of cold weather developing.
The main uncertainty to the forecast is how active low pressure will be across northern Europe at the end of January and to what extent activity declines at the start of February. There is a chance that the very unsettled weather persists into the start of February, which would limit the cooler conditions, but this less likely than our expected pattern.
Further ahead
We will take another look at the forecast for the start of February, to see if the cooler weather still looks likely.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook