BBC monthly outlook
Summary
Milder than average with some cold, stormy spells
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Wednesday 22 January – Sunday 26 January
Fairly dull but mild week. Changes this weekend.
The rest of this working week will be dominated by high pressure extending over the UK from the west. Westerly winds to the north of this high will feed plenty of Atlantic moisture into the UK. This will result in a pretty dull, grey outlook with largely overcast skies and drizzly, misty conditions. Any sunshine will likely be at a premium, and most frequently in the east.
After a chilly start this week, temperatures will tend to be above average as the blanket of low clouds and mist keeps things from getting too cold. Overnight frost is unlikely, but some areas may turn quite foggy, the fog sluggish to clear in the mornings.
Any area that sees some clearer skies overnight will likely see quite dense fog develop, but this will be very patchy. Heading into the weekend, high pressure is expected to decline and shift away to the south, but this will be a very gradual transition taking the entire weekend. A weak front will try and move in from the northwest, but it will take all day Saturday and most of Sunday for it to reach clear into Southeast England. Rain will turn increasingly light and patchy the further south and east the front gets. However, it is a cold front and is likely to clear out the gloom from the week, so Sunday night is looking a bit colder.
Monday 27 January – Sunday 2 February
Stormy start with a midweek cold snap. Mild later
As the trend for high pressure to become ever less influential continues into next week, a strong low pressure system is likely to move in from the Atlantic early on. The first few days of the week are expected to become quite stormy across the whole UK, with some very strong winds and bands of heavy rain sweeping across the country. While the warm front will bring in some sub-tropical, mild air for a time, the strong cold front will herald a return of polar air and bring a cold snap that is likely to last for two or three days around midweek. During this cold snap, low pressure will linger to the north of the UK and keep things unsettled.
Scattered blustery showers are likely to drift in to western and northern areas, and these coupled with the colder air will bring a risk of lowland snow, mainly for Northwest England, Northern Ireland, and Scotland. Overall confidence is high, but there is still a bit of uncertainty on how long the cold air will be with us, and there is a slight chance it may linger clear to the weekend. However, as low pressure centres shift more over Scandinavia later in the week and into February, milder sub-tropical air from the Atlantic will be able to feed in once more. So temperatures will likely return to being above average for the time of year. Atlantic weather fronts will still traverse the UK though, so it will likely continue to be wet and windy, but not as stormy as the start of the week.
Monday 3 February – Sunday 16 February
Mild and changeable with some long dry spells
For the first full week of February, low pressure is expected to continue to linger around Scandinavia to the northeast of the UK with a ridge of high pressure over western Europe and into the North Atlantic. This UK will be on a knife edge between influences from the low pressure system and the high pressure system, so weather will likely be changeable. However, it will be more consistently wet and windy in northern and eastern areas, while staying a bit drier and calmer in the west and south. Temperatures will also tend to be milder than normal, and likely a bit milder than the end of January. Temporary ridges of high pressure that are expected at times may lead to some further cold snaps, but these will tend to be fleeting, lasting only one or two days.
Heading into mid-February, the broad weather pattern is likely to stay mostly the same, but low pressure tracks will move from Greenland, north of the UK, and into Scandinavia.
High pressure to the southwest and south will be able to make its presence felt a bit more often between low pressure systems, but also occasional fronts will bring some rain and winds to all. Southern areas may stay fairly dry though, with lengthy dry spells between weaker fronts that may only manage to bring light, patchy rain. Confidence is reasonably high into mid-February, but the main uncertainty is over how influential and for how long high pressure will determine the weather. There is a robust signal in the models for a distinct lack of prolonged, widespread cold and wintry weather. However, some brief cold snaps are expected, so a few spots may see some lowland snow at times.
Further ahead
We will have a better idea how long cold air will stick around next week, and take a closer look at how mild February may be.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook