Monday 3 Feb - Wednesday 12 Feb

The beginning of next week will remain unsettled with outbreaks of rain or showers mixed with bright or sunny spells. Thereafter, we should see the dominance of high pressure across the UK. This will allow a shift towards more settled conditions with a good deal of sunshine across most parts. Northern and eastern areas are likely to start this period cold with a chance of wintry showers, these likely falling as snow to relatively low levels at times. Towards the end of next week, the settled weather will spread further east with plenty of sunny spells by day and a risk of frost by night. Following this, it looks to stay mostly dry but it may turn increasingly cloudy towards the middle of February with possible overnight fog.

Tuesday 11 Feb - Tuesday 25 Feb

This period seems to trend towards a more typical northwest/southeast divide. The southeast should hold on to the drier and calmer weather for a while longer with a continued risk of overnight frost and fog. Further north, it will turn increasingly unsettled with outbreaks of rain and strong winds at times. Temperatures will gradually return towards normal, but will remain a little below average during the settled spell in the south.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

​

 Met office 10 Day trend

Next 10 Days

Changeable
Mild
Breezy

Next week

High pressure
Cold plunge possible
Uncertainty

​

The latest Met Office decadal forecast is out...

🌡️ Hottest year on record 'likely' to be broken in next 5yrs.
📈 Average global temp over next 5yrs expected to be 1.15 to 1.46°C above pre-industrial level
🥵 Chance of any individual year exceeding 1.5°C is <10%

— Simon King (@SimonOKing) January 30, 2020

Tuesday 4 Feb - Thursday 13 Feb

The beginning of next week will remain unsettled with outbreaks of rain or showers mixed with bright or sunny spells. Thereafter, we should see the dominance of high pressure across the UK. This will allow a shift towards more settled conditions with a good deal of sunshine across most parts. Northern and eastern areas are likely to start this period cold with a chance of wintry showers, these likely falling as snow to relatively low levels at times. Towards the end of next week, the settled weather will spread further east with plenty of sunny spells by day and a risk of frost by night. Following this, it looks to stay mostly dry but it may turn increasingly cloudy towards the middle of February with possible overnight fog.

Thursday 13 Feb - Thursday 27 Feb

This period seems to trend towards a more typical northwest/southeast divide. The southeast should hold on to the drier and calmer weather for a while longer with a continued risk of overnight frost and fog. Further north, it will turn increasingly unsettled with outbreaks of rain and strong winds at times. Temperatures will gradually return towards normal, but will remain a little below average during the settled spell in the south.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Met office CPF update

January update

February to April

Temperature summary

For February and February-March-April as a whole, above-average temperatures are more likely than below-average temperatures. Impacts from cold weather remain possible, but they are less likely than normal. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for February-March-April will fall into the coldest of our five categories is around 5% and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is 50% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-temp-fma-v1.pdf

Precipitation summary

For February, the likelihoods of above- and below-average precipitation are similar. For February-March-April as a whole, below-average precipitation is slightly more likely than above-average precipitation. The probability that UK-average precipitation for February-March-April will fall into the driest of our five categories is around 25% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is between 15% and 20% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-precip-fma-v1.pdf

​Australian bushfires: State of emergency declared in Canberra as blazes worsen

http://news.sky.com/story/australian-bushfires-state-of-emergency-declared-in-canberra-as-blazes-worsen-11922279

​

Wednesday 5 Feb - Friday 14 Feb

The beginning of this period may bring sunny spells for many but also periods of wind and rain, with a risk of gales in the north. Cold at first with frost likely, however becoming milder again by Friday. Further ahead, a continuation of unsettled spells is expected throughout this period. Although there will be spells of rain and strong winds at times, these will be interspersed with brighter but showery interludes. The heaviest rain or stronger winds are expected in the west and northwest with the best of drier and brighter conditions in the south and southeast. Any colder interludes carry the risk of frost or wintry showers on high ground in the north, however these are expected to be short-lived.

Friday 14 Feb - Friday 28 Feb

Although confidence remains low for this period, continued unsettled weather is expected, with spells of rain and strong winds broken by brighter but showery conditions. The heavier rain and stronger winds are expected in northwest with the drier conditions expected towards to south. Perhaps becoming more generally settled toward the end of February. Temperatures are expected to stay unseasonably mild, with any dry and cold interludes fairly brief.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Wednesday 5 Feb - Friday 14 Feb

The beginning of this period may bring sunny spells for many but also periods of wind and rain, with a risk of gales in the north. Cold at first with frost likely, however becoming milder again by Friday. Further ahead, a continuation of unsettled spells is expected throughout this period. Although there will be spells of rain and strong winds at times, these will be interspersed with brighter but showery interludes. The heaviest rain or stronger winds are expected in the west and northwest with the best of drier and brighter conditions in the south and southeast. Any colder interludes carry the risk of frost or wintry showers on high ground in the north, however these are expected to be short-lived.

Friday 14 Feb - Friday 28 Feb

Although confidence remains low for this period, continued unsettled weather is expected, with spells of rain and strong winds broken by brighter but showery conditions. The heavier rain and stronger winds are expected in northwest with the drier conditions expected towards to south. Perhaps becoming more generally settled toward the end of February. Temperatures are expected to stay unseasonably mild, with any dry and cold interludes fairly brief.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

At least it was dry last February. Well it really is lights out for any cold snap this winter then - sorry it's time for a winter is over thread or shall I say winter? What winter?? We have had colder snaps in November than at anytime over past two winter months- I am keen to see what the January's CET will be like.

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

• Briefly chilly next week


• Mild Atlantic winds return


• Time running out for ‘coldies’?

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2020/01/31/john-hammonds-month-ahead-winter-over-before-began/

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Mainly mild with spells of wet, windy weather

_________________________________

Saturday 1 February – Sunday 9 February

Unsettled and mild, but with a short cold spell

After a cold start to the week when we had snow in some parts of the country, temperatures have been on the up. It has been rather unsettled with showers and rain affecting the country most days of the week. This weekend won't see much change to this pattern. Both Saturday and Sunday will see showers and rain moving across the country. It will be windy in some areas too, so despite the mild air we're currently in it might feel a bit chilly. Monday and Tuesday will see a deep low pressure system moving close to or across the north of the country. This system will bring very strong winds to some areas - gales, severe gales are likely, and it could become stormy over Scotland. There will be showers and rain too.

As the low pressure system shifts eastwards, we will see a spell of northerly or north-westerly winds developing. It will become colder in all areas, and with the strength of the wind on Tuesday it will feel chilly. At the same time as the low shifts eastwards, we'll see high pressure building to the south-west then west of the country. This will drift overhead on Wednesday, which looks dry and calm, especially compared to Tuesday, but still rather cool. Later in the week, the ridge of high pressure will decline, and we'll see a return to westerly winds. Then end of the week looks milder but windier and wetter. There's even a chance of another spell of very windy weather next weekend.

Monday 10 February – Sunday 16 February

Very wet and very windy ... but still mild

The trend towards wetter and windier weather at the end of next week is expected to continue. We expect a powerful jet stream over the North Atlantic Ocean to drive deep low pressure systems into the UK. The upshot of this is that the week looks like a wet and very windy week. There will be the risk of one or more spells of stormy weather, and disruptive winds are perhaps more likely than we've seen so far this winter. Showers and heavy rain are expected too, especially but not exclusively in the west. Given that as the ground has not had a chance to dry out from the very wet autumn and early winter, there is likely to be a threat of flooding.

The other notable feature is that our winds will be coming in from a relatively warm Atlantic Ocean. This means that it will remain milder than normal for the time of year.
We haven't seen a lot of cold weather this winter, and it looks rather unlikely that we'll see anything in this part of the month, except for very brief spells of something cooler between weather systems. Sleet or snow is possible on high ground in the north, but we don't expect any significant snow to lower levels.

Monday 17 February – Sunday 1 March

Unsettled at first but calming down later

At first, there won't be too much change to the weather after mid-month. Atlantic weather systems will continue to move in, bringing more very unsettled, perhaps stormy weather.
With the weather expected to remain wet with only short drier spells for any recovery, there will still be an increased risk of flooding. Strong winds are expected to continue across the country, probably causing some disruption too. It will remain mild. After such an unsettled month, it will be some relief to see that the weather should start to quieten down towards the end of the month. This is likely to be the result of high pressure building from the south as the jet stream drifts northwards.

It does mean that the south of the UK will see an improvement in the weather first, whilst the north remains unsettled for longer. Western parts of Scotland may stay a little wetter than average until quite close to the end of the month. It is too early to say whether we'll see another spell of "anticyclonic gloom", with a lot of cloud, mist and murk but it is a possibility. However, high pressure could also bring settled, clear, crisp conditions which might allow a few cold nights - similar to what we'll get at the start of February. We still don't see any signs of any prolonged cold and widespread snowy weather developing. In fact, one theme that does continue right through until the end of February and start of March is the mildness. Temperatures are most likely to remain above normal for the time of year through the last couple of weeks of the month.

Further ahead

We'll update the details of the stormy weather we expect around the middle of February.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Thursday 6 Feb - Saturday 15 Feb

The beginning of this period may bring sunny spells for many but also periods of wind and rain, with a risk of gales in the north. Cold at first on Thursday with frost likely, however becoming milder again by Friday. Further ahead, a continuation of unsettled spells is expected throughout this period. Although there will be spells of rain and strong winds at times, these will be interspersed with brighter but showery interludes. The heaviest rain or stronger winds are expected in the west and northwest with the best of drier and brighter conditions in the south and southeast. Any colder interludes carry the risk of frost or wintry showers on high ground in the north, however these are expected to be short-lived.

Saturday 15 Feb - Saturday 29 Feb

Although confidence remains low for this period, continued unsettled weather is expected, with spells of rain and strong winds broken by brighter but showery conditions. The heavier rain and stronger winds are expected in northwest with the drier conditions expected towards to south. Perhaps becoming more generally settled toward the end of February. Temperatures are expected to stay unseasonably mild, with any dry and cold interludes fairly brief.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Friday 7 Feb - Sunday 16 Feb

Friday will probably remain settled, dry and mainly overcast throughout much of the UK, with a few early fog patches in the south. Later in the day, conditions may turn more unsettled, with rain approaching and stronger winds from the northwest. However, confidence is low on the timing of this breakdown. Further ahead, unsettled conditions are expected to dominate. Although there will be spells of rain and strong winds at times, these will be interspersed with brighter but showery interludes. The heaviest rain or stronger winds are expected in the west and northwest with the best of drier and brighter conditions in the south and southeast. Any colder interludes carry the risk of frost or wintry showers on high ground in the north, however these are expected to be short-lived.

Sunday 16 Feb - Sunday 1 Mar

Although confidence remains low for this period, continued unsettled weather is expected, with spells of rain and strong winds broken by brighter but showery conditions. The heavier rain and stronger winds are expected in the northwest with the drier conditions expected towards the south. Perhaps becoming more generally settled toward the end of February. Temperatures are expected to stay unseasonably mild, with any dry and cold interludes fairly brief.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

​ Dry, hot summers could become 'norm' in Scotland

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-51347881?ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central&ns_campaign=bbc_weather&ns_mchannel=social

​

Saturday 8 Feb - Monday 17 Feb

Becoming more unsettled on Saturday, with rain spreading eastwards and reaching most areas through the day. The driest and brightest weather will be seen in the east and southeast before rain arrives later. Brief bright spells in the west and northwest should follow the band of rain, before heavier rain and strong, possibly showery winds develop later. Further ahead, unsettled conditions are expected to dominate; generally windy with spells of rain at times, interspersed with brighter but showery interludes. The heaviest rain and strongest winds are expected in the west and northwest with the best of any drier and brighter conditions in the south and southeast. Any colder interludes carry the risk of frost or wintry showers on high ground in the north, however these are expected to be short-lived.

Monday 17 Feb - Monday 2 Mar

A continuation of the unsettled weather is expected at first, with spells of rain and strong winds broken by brighter but showery conditions. The heavier rain and stronger winds are expected in the northwest with the drier conditions expected towards the south. Perhaps becoming more generally settled through late February, but confidence by this point is very low. Temperatures are expected to stay unseasonably mild, with any dry and cold interludes fairly brief.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

​ Dry, hot summers could become 'norm' in Scotland

Quote

 

Dry, hot summers with temperatures of about 30C are set to become the norm in Scotland, a new study suggests. Researchers say the country should prepare for more like the record-breaking summer of 2018. It was unusually hot that summer, with a near record high of 31.9C recorded at Bishopton in Renfrewshire. Unless greenhouse gas emissions are cut substantially, researchers say every summer could be like 2018 towards the end of the century.

The report by researchers from Edinburgh and Oxford universities and Met Office staff analyses UK climate projections. They suggest there is a substantial increase in the likelihood of temperatures reaching 2018's levels between now and 2050. And they say the country should start planning now to deal with more frequent higher temperatures brought about as a result of climate change.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-51347881?ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central&ns_campaign=bbc_weather&ns_mchannel=social

​

So we were being told 20-odd years ago as well.

If you want my opinion, summers in my neck of the woods in the past 20 or so years have become worse, not better. Those of the 1990s, from what I recall of them, were generally drier than many have been since the turn of the millenium. Yes, there have been notably good ones such as 2003, 2006 and 2018, but there have been some shockingly bad summers too; anyone remember the likes of 2007 and 2012?

​ Dry, hot summers could become 'norm' in Scotland

Quote

 

Dry, hot summers with temperatures of about 30C are set to become the norm in Scotland, a new study suggests. Researchers say the country should prepare for more like the record-breaking summer of 2018. It was unusually hot that summer, with a near record high of 31.9C recorded at Bishopton in Renfrewshire. Unless greenhouse gas emissions are cut substantially, researchers say every summer could be like 2018 towards the end of the century.

The report by researchers from Edinburgh and Oxford universities and Met Office staff analyses UK climate projections. They suggest there is a substantial increase in the likelihood of temperatures reaching 2018's levels between now and 2050. And they say the country should start planning now to deal with more frequent higher temperatures brought about as a result of climate change.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-51347881?ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central&ns_campaign=bbc_weather&ns_mchannel=social

​

Sunday 9 Feb - Tuesday 18 Feb

Rain to start in the southeast on Sunday, followed by showers, which will be frequent and heavy, with the possibility of some hail and thunderstorms. Wintry showers are likely over hills. Gales in many areas, potentially stormy in the north and northwest. Further ahead, unsettled conditions are expected to dominate; generally windy with spells of rain at times, interspersed with brighter but showery interludes. The heaviest rain and strongest winds are expected in the west and northwest with the best of any drier and brighter conditions in the south and southeast. Snow is likely in the north at times, especially over high ground. Temperatures will mostly stay above normal, with any colder interludes remaining brief.

Tuesday 18 Feb - Tuesday 3 Mar

A continuation of the unsettled weather is expected at first, with spells of rain and strong winds broken by brighter but showery conditions. The heavier rain and stronger winds are expected in the northwest with the drier conditions expected towards the south. Perhaps becoming more generally settled through late February and into early March, particularly for southern and eastern areas. Any wetter weather is more likely to be confined to the northwest. Temperatures are expected to stay unseasonably mild, with any dry and cold interludes fairly brief.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

At long last, we finally have a storm which has actually just been officially named by the UK Met Office, rather than by Met Eireann (or by anyone else for that matter). That of course, is Storm Ciara Which is expected to affect the UK over the course of the weekend, according to this post on the Met Office's own official website.

I had initially thought that in order for a storm to be actually named, there had to be an amber warning in place (or an orange warning in Ireland if that storm was named by Met Eireann). However, that clearly doesn't appear to be the case as there are no amber warnings in place which I know, although the one yellow warning for wind which is in place for that does cover the whole of the UK.

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

A spell of stormy weather to come

_________________________________

Wednesday 5 February – Sunday 9 February

Calm until the weekend, then very unsettled

High pressure is currently sat across the UK with most parts of the country having a spell of dry and calm weather. This is expected to continue until the end of this week with a big change arriving this weekend. The weekend sees westerly winds reasserting themselves, with weather systems coming in from the Atlantic, driven by a very strong jet stream. Saturday will be a windy day with rain crossing the country.

There should be a brief spell of drier weather later, but it won't last. The rest of the weekend will be very windy with gales and severe gales quite widely, and the risk of stormy weather on Sunday. There will also be widespread showers and rain, some of which will be heavy. Some surprisingly mild air will cross the country on Sunday but, given the strength of the wind, it won't feel that mild.

Monday 10 February – Sunday 16 February

Very wet and very windy ... but still mild

There's increasing confidence that the wetter and windier weather expected this weekend will persist into next week. The powerful jet stream over the North Atlantic Ocean will continue to drive deep depressions towards and across the UK throughout much of the week. There will be a risk of gales for many areas, and we could see some stormy weather. There will be a lot of rain too as fronts sweep across the country, with blustery showers likely in between. Northern and western parts of the UK are likely to see the heaviest rain, but it looks very wet in all areas. Given how wet the ground is from rain in the autumn and earlier this winter, there may be a risk of flooding.

Whilst much of next week looks milder than normal, a brief colder spell on Monday and Tuesday is looking increasingly likely. It looks cold enough for there to be snow showers in some parts of the country. Scotland and Northern Ireland look most likely to see snow, this mainly on hills but possibly to lower levels at times. This may cause some travel disruption. Northern England and Wales could also see snow showers on high ground. The rest of the UK is unlikely to see any significant wintry weather but could be rather chilly. It looks milder from midweek onwards, so the risk of snow greatly decreases, but the heavy rain and strong winds are expected to continue through to the end of the week.

Monday 17 February – Sunday 1 March

Unsettled at first but calming down later

There won't be too much change to the weather immediately after mid-month, with further wet and windy weather looking likely. However, we do expect it to become calmer and drier the closer we get to the end of February and start of March. At first, Atlantic low pressure systems will continue to push in from the west, these bringing spells of wet and windy weather. It will remain milder than normal for the time of year, although with some cooler intervals possible between weather systems. High pressure is expected to build from the south as we head later into the month. This will bring calmer and drier weather to more and more of the UK. By the end of February it is looking a lot drier and calmer than it does for the middle of the month. In fact, only the north of Scotland looks likely to see rainfall above normal, with all other areas having rainfall near or below normal.

There is some uncertainty over how quickly high pressure will shift northwards. A little slower than we expect and it will remain wetter and windier for longer. Conversely there is a chance that the ridge of high pressure will move a lot further north than we expect. If this happens then whilst it will be drier and calmer than average across all areas, there may be the chance of some cooler easterly winds across some areas. This is a fairly low risk. Otherwise, temperatures will remain near normal although there will be more of a chance of some cooler nights later in the month.

Further ahead

Will calmer conditions prevail or can we expect more wet and windy weather to start March?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Monday 10 Feb - Wednesday 19 Feb

Through the beginning of next week conditions will remain very unsettled with blustery showers, these heavy in places. The showers will be wintry with snow in the north and over the higher ground in the south. Winds will stay on the strong side with gales to severe gales continuing. Further ahead, unsettled conditions are expected to dominate; generally windy with spells of rain at times, interspersed with brighter but showery interludes. The heaviest rain and strongest winds are expected in the west and northwest with the best of any drier and brighter conditions in the south and southeast. Snow is likely in the north at times, especially over high ground. Temperatures will mostly stay above normal, with any colder interludes remaining brief.

Wednesday 19 Feb - Wednesday 4 Mar

A continuation of the unsettled weather is expected at first, with spells of rain and strong winds broken by brighter but showery conditions. The heavier rain and stronger winds are expected in the northwest with the drier conditions expected towards the south. Perhaps becoming more generally settled through late February and into early March with more prolonged dry spells, particularly in the south and east with wetter conditions in the northwest. Any wetter weather is more likely to be confined to the northwest. Temperatures are expected to stay unseasonably mild, with any dry and cold interludes fairly brief.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/