Wednesday 29 Jan - Friday 7 Feb

At the start of the period, there will be rain spreading across the north, with some hill snow at times. Potential for some gales in the northwest. Breezy with showers in the south, with the brightest weather mostly in the east. Continuing through the period, a mobile westerly pattern will lead to some changeable weather. Spells of rain and strong winds, with possible gales, will continue across the UK. There could also be some brighter and colder periods at times, with some lighter showers. Any snow during the period will be confined to the northerly hills. Temperatures will fluctuate from mild to cold. Towards the end of the period, the changeable weather will continue, but a northwest-southeast split will begin to develop.

Friday 7 Feb - Friday 21 Feb

Early February will see the northwest-southeast split continuing, with the northwest seeing the unsettled weather, with the southeast remaining drier. Into the middle of the month, it is likely to trend to more anticyclonic conditions, with drier weather across the south and southeast, eventually spreading northwestwards. The north will continue to be at risk of outbreaks of rain and stronger winds at times. Overnight fog and frosts will be likely, and these could be persistent at times. Temperatures around normal, and sometimes above. There could be large diurnal ranges in the more settled periods, given enough sunshine.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

A changeable pattern. Wet and windy at times.

_________________________________

Saturday 25 January – Sunday 2 February

A return to windier and unsettled weather

Recently, high pressure has brought rather calm and often dry conditions for many. However, the high pressure area is set to move away, opening the door to wetter and windier conditions from the west. We will start to see changes in our weather this weekend. After a mostly dry but rather cloudy day on Saturday, Sunday looks set to become wetter and breezier with rain spreading from the west. On Sunday night, colder air looks like spreading from the west with a mixture of rain and snow spreading eastwards. Snow will be most likely over hills and in the north, perhaps with some significant snowfall over the Southern Uplands of Scotland.

Chillier conditions will then persist through Monday and Tuesday next week. It is likely to stay breezy with showers, these most frequent over the western UK and southern counties of England. Snow showers are likely over hills in Wales, Northern Ireland, northwest England and Scotland, with accumulations at times. A gradual change to milder conditions looks likely for the middle to latter part of next week. However, it is likely to still be wet and windy at times. The most frequent rainfall looks set to be over northwestern parts of the UK. Western Scotland could be particularly wet.

Monday 3 February – Sunday 9 February

Wet and windy at first but drier later

The first full week of February looks like being a week of two halves. Through the first half of the week, we are likely to see a persistence of wet and windy conditions. Again, the rain could be heavy and prolonged over northwestern areas. Rain should be more infrequent further south and east. There are signs that the second half of the week should see a change in weather as high pressure extends from the south. This area of high pressure is expected to bring a drier and calmer end to the week. However, as winds ease, we could see the return of mist and fog in places, especially over England and Wales. Currently, there is some uncertainty around the timing of this change.

Monday 10 February – Sunday 23 February

More rain and wind at times but mild

Any drier and calmer weather is likely to be short-lived. Through the second and third weeks of February, a return of low pressure systems from the Atlantic look set to bring a return to wetter and windier conditions. Once again, the wettest and windiest conditions are likely to be over northwestern parts of the UK. Western Scotland and Northern Ireland could see well above average rainfall. However, all areas are likely to have some wet and windy weather at times as weather systems move from west to east across the country. Overall, the mild theme is likely to persist, with temperatures often either near or above the February average. There should be a lack of any significant or widespread snow. Night frosts are likely to be less frequent than usual too. There is a risk that we could see one or two stormy episodes for a time.

Further ahead

Will the unsettled but mild outlook continue or could there be signs of more wintry weather on the way?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Thursday 30 Jan - Saturday 8 Feb

Rather unsettled to start the period, with rain possibly affecting northern and western areas, as well as some coastal gales in the northwest. The south and east could stay mostly dry and bright. Generally mild. Continuing through the period, a mobile westerly pattern will lead to some changeable weather. Spells of rain and strong winds, with possible gales, will continue across the UK. There could also be some brighter and colder periods at times, with some lighter showers. Any snow during the period will be confined to the northerly hills. Temperatures will fluctuate from mild to cold. Towards the end of the period, the changeable weather will continue, but a northwest-southeast split will begin to develop.

Saturday 8 Feb - Saturday 22 Feb

Early February will see the northwest-southeast split continuing, with the northwest seeing the unsettled weather, with the southeast remaining drier. Into the middle of the month, it is likely to trend to more anticyclonic conditions, with drier weather across the south and southeast, eventually spreading northwestwards. The north will continue to be at risk of outbreaks of rain and stronger winds at times. Overnight fog and frosts will be likely, and these could be persistent at times. Temperatures around normal, and sometimes above. There could be large diurnal ranges in the more settled periods, given enough sunshine.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Friday 31 Jan - Sunday 9 Feb

Often windy with outbreaks of rain and showers for all areas at the start of this period, with temperatures on the mild side of the seasonal average. As we head through the first full week of February it currently looks most likely that we will see a gradual trend towards more settled conditions, particularly in the south, and there is a chance that these will extend across the whole country at times. Overnight fog and frosts are likely to accompany these more settled conditions, with light winds and temperatures probably nearer to the average for the time of year. The far north, and particularly north-west, will probably remain more changeable, or unsettled, with further spells of wind and rain.

Sunday 9 Feb - Sunday 23 Feb

The first part of the period is likely to trend to more anticyclonic conditions, with the associated drier and more settled weather intially in the southeast, spreading northwestwards and beginning to dominate. The north will continue to be at risk from outbreaks of rain and stronger winds at times. Overnight frosts and fog will be likely, which could be persistent at times. Temperatures around normal, and sometimes a little above. There could be large variations between night time and day time temperatures in the more settled spells, especially on the sunnier days.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Quite a deluge to the southwest of London. Looks like a significant weather event & I'm surprised there doesn't appear to be a warning out. (Just had a lightning strike here in Berkhamsted). Latest radar view here https://t.co/ad9o5ZgHqv pic.twitter.com/59E2fDNrt4

— TheWeatherOutlook (@TWOweather) January 27, 2020

Saturday 1 Feb - Monday 10 Feb

Often windy with outbreaks of rain and showers for all areas at the start of this period, with temperatures on the mild side of the seasonal average. As we head through the first full week of February it currently looks most likely that we will see a gradual trend towards more settled conditions, particularly in the south, and there is a chance that these will extend across the whole country at times. Overnight fog and frosts are likely to accompany these more settled conditions, with light winds and temperatures probably nearer to the average for the time of year. The far north, and particularly north-west, will probably remain more changeable, or unsettled, with further spells of wind and rain.

Monday 10 Feb - Monday 24 Feb

The first part of the period is likely to trend to more anticyclonic conditions, with the associated drier and more settled weather intially in the southeast, spreading northwestwards and beginning to dominate. The north will continue to be at risk from outbreaks of rain and stronger winds at times. Overnight frosts and fog will be likely, which could be persistent at times. Temperatures around normal, and sometimes a little above. There could be large variations between night time and day time temperatures in the more settled spells, especially on the sunnier days.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Good to see they've got rid of diurnal. It sounded as though it had been written by someone fresh out of university.

Sunday 2 Feb - Tuesday 11 Feb

After a wet and windy day Sunday, the beginning of next week will remain unsettled with outbreaks of rain or showers. Thereafter, we should see the dominance of high pressure across the UK. This will allow a shift towards more settled conditions with a good deal of sunshine across most parts. Northern and eastern areas are likely to start this period cold with a chance of wintry showers, these likely falling as snow to relatively low levels at times. Towards the end of next week, the settled weather will spread further east with plenty of sunny spells by day and a risk of frost by night. Following this, it looks to stay mostly dry but it may turn increasingly cloudy towards the middle of February with possible overnight fog.

Tuesday 11 Feb - Tuesday 25 Feb

This period seems to trend towards a more typical northwest/southeast divide. The southeast should hold on to the drier and calmer weather for a while longer with a continued risk of overnight frost and fog. Further north, it will turn increasingly unsettled with outbreaks of rain and strong winds at times. Temperatures will gradually return towards normal, but will remain a little below average during the settled spell in the south.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Mainly mild with spells of wet, windy weather

_________________________________

Wednesday 29 January – Sunday 2 February

Staying unsettled but milder by the weekend

So far, the week has been rather chilly and unsettled. We've seen snow in some areas, these mainly across Scotland but with wintry showers as far south as the moors of Devon.
There have been a couple of cold nights too. The main change expected for the second half of the week is that we expect it to become milder. This is due to winds coming mainly from the west and south-west, pushing warmer air across the country. It will be most noticeable this weekend when daytime temperatures could reach 13 or 14 Celsius in the warmest parts of the country. That's much warmer than the highs of 6 to 8 Celsius we saw earlier this week. The nights will become less cold too so there won't be much risk of a frost on Friday, Saturday or Sunday night.

One thing that won't change is the unsettled weather. Low pressure remains in the driving seat for much of the rest of the week. We expect a series of weather systems to move across the UK between now and Sunday. Each system will bring showers and rain, with western parts of the country very wet. However, with temperatures on the rise the risk of snow away from the mountains decreases. There will also be fresh to strong winds at times, and some areas of the UK could see gales, most likely Scotland.

Monday 3 February – Sunday 9 February

Wet and windy at first, drier and colder later

The first full week of February looks like starting mild, wet and windy. Low pressure will remain close by on Monday, so it looks windy with showers and longer spells of rain across the country. It will also be a little milder than normal for the time of year. Tuesday will see low pressure shifting eastwards towards the North Sea, but it will take time to do so and another unsettled and windy day looks likely. It does look less mild on Tuesday. The big changes to the weather are expected around the middle of next week. As our low pressure system finally shifts off into Scandinavia, a spell of northerly winds will develop. There will be quite a dramatic drop in temperatures compared to the preceding weekend, and we can expect a return to overnight frosts.

Snow showers look likely for northern Scotland and wintry showers may push onto North Sea coasts of England too. We'll also start to see a ridge of high pressure building to the south-west of the UK around mid-week. As this ridge extends northwards it will cut off the flow of weather from the Atlantic, giving us drier and calmer weather for the end of the week. The main uncertainty is exactly how quickly and how far the ridge extends northwards. There is a chance that it doesn't cut off the Atlantic weather completely or does so for only a short time. That would mean that next weekend is wetter and windier than we expected, but it would be less cold too.

Monday 10 February – Sunday 23 February

A return to unsettled but mild weather

The drier, calmer but cooler weather we expect at the end of next week is only expected to be short-lived. Through the second and third weeks of February, we will likely see low pressure areas moving in from the Atlantic again. This means a return to wetter, windier but milder weather. Whilst all areas will be affected by the more unsettled weather, the wettest and windiest conditions are likely to be over north-western parts of the UK. Western Scotland and Northern Ireland could see well-above average rainfall and perhaps gales at times. Overall, it is expected to be milder than normal for late winter with temperatures either near or above average. There should be a lack of any significant or widespread snow. Night frosts are likely to be less frequent than usual too.

Since December, we've seen a pattern for the unsettled weather to be punctuated by calmer, drier spells every week to ten days. That looks as though it could happen again later this month. There are indications of a ridge of high pressure starting to build later in the month, so it may be that there is another short break from the unsettled weather before we reach the end of February. It may even become chillier for a time, but we should note that at this stage we don't see any indications of any sustained cold weather setting in.

Further ahead

The next update should take us to the end of Meteorological Winter, but will there be any wintry weather in the forecast?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Monday 3 Feb - Wednesday 12 Feb

The beginning of next week will remain unsettled with outbreaks of rain or showers mixed with bright or sunny spells. Thereafter, we should see the dominance of high pressure across the UK. This will allow a shift towards more settled conditions with a good deal of sunshine across most parts. Northern and eastern areas are likely to start this period cold with a chance of wintry showers, these likely falling as snow to relatively low levels at times. Towards the end of next week, the settled weather will spread further east with plenty of sunny spells by day and a risk of frost by night. Following this, it looks to stay mostly dry but it may turn increasingly cloudy towards the middle of February with possible overnight fog.

Tuesday 11 Feb - Tuesday 25 Feb

This period seems to trend towards a more typical northwest/southeast divide. The southeast should hold on to the drier and calmer weather for a while longer with a continued risk of overnight frost and fog. Further north, it will turn increasingly unsettled with outbreaks of rain and strong winds at times. Temperatures will gradually return towards normal, but will remain a little below average during the settled spell in the south.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

​

 Met office 10 Day trend

Next 10 Days

Changeable
Mild
Breezy

Next week

High pressure
Cold plunge possible
Uncertainty

​

The latest Met Office decadal forecast is out...

🌡️ Hottest year on record 'likely' to be broken in next 5yrs.
📈 Average global temp over next 5yrs expected to be 1.15 to 1.46°C above pre-industrial level
🥵 Chance of any individual year exceeding 1.5°C is <10%

— Simon King (@SimonOKing) January 30, 2020

Tuesday 4 Feb - Thursday 13 Feb

The beginning of next week will remain unsettled with outbreaks of rain or showers mixed with bright or sunny spells. Thereafter, we should see the dominance of high pressure across the UK. This will allow a shift towards more settled conditions with a good deal of sunshine across most parts. Northern and eastern areas are likely to start this period cold with a chance of wintry showers, these likely falling as snow to relatively low levels at times. Towards the end of next week, the settled weather will spread further east with plenty of sunny spells by day and a risk of frost by night. Following this, it looks to stay mostly dry but it may turn increasingly cloudy towards the middle of February with possible overnight fog.

Thursday 13 Feb - Thursday 27 Feb

This period seems to trend towards a more typical northwest/southeast divide. The southeast should hold on to the drier and calmer weather for a while longer with a continued risk of overnight frost and fog. Further north, it will turn increasingly unsettled with outbreaks of rain and strong winds at times. Temperatures will gradually return towards normal, but will remain a little below average during the settled spell in the south.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Met office CPF update

January update

February to April

Temperature summary

For February and February-March-April as a whole, above-average temperatures are more likely than below-average temperatures. Impacts from cold weather remain possible, but they are less likely than normal. Overall, the probability that the UK-average temperature for February-March-April will fall into the coldest of our five categories is around 5% and the probability that it will fall into the warmest of our five categories is 50% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-temp-fma-v1.pdf

Precipitation summary

For February, the likelihoods of above- and below-average precipitation are similar. For February-March-April as a whole, below-average precipitation is slightly more likely than above-average precipitation. The probability that UK-average precipitation for February-March-April will fall into the driest of our five categories is around 25% and the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is between 15% and 20% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

Full forecast: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/forecast-precip-fma-v1.pdf

​Australian bushfires: State of emergency declared in Canberra as blazes worsen

Quote

A state of emergency has been declared in Australia's capital Canberra and surrounding areas, as strong winds and soaring heat threatens to send a huge nearby bushfire out of control. Yet another heatwave is spreading across the country, which is expected to spark more dangerous bushfires in a region already devastated by the blazes.

http://news.sky.com/story/australian-bushfires-state-of-emergency-declared-in-canberra-as-blazes-worsen-11922279

​

Wednesday 5 Feb - Friday 14 Feb

The beginning of this period may bring sunny spells for many but also periods of wind and rain, with a risk of gales in the north. Cold at first with frost likely, however becoming milder again by Friday. Further ahead, a continuation of unsettled spells is expected throughout this period. Although there will be spells of rain and strong winds at times, these will be interspersed with brighter but showery interludes. The heaviest rain or stronger winds are expected in the west and northwest with the best of drier and brighter conditions in the south and southeast. Any colder interludes carry the risk of frost or wintry showers on high ground in the north, however these are expected to be short-lived.

Friday 14 Feb - Friday 28 Feb

Although confidence remains low for this period, continued unsettled weather is expected, with spells of rain and strong winds broken by brighter but showery conditions. The heavier rain and stronger winds are expected in northwest with the drier conditions expected towards to south. Perhaps becoming more generally settled toward the end of February. Temperatures are expected to stay unseasonably mild, with any dry and cold interludes fairly brief.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

At least it was dry last February. Well it really is lights out for any cold snap this winter then - sorry it's time for a winter is over thread or shall I say winter? What winter?? We have had colder snaps in November than at anytime over past two winter months- I am keen to see what the January's CET will be like.

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

• Briefly chilly next week


• Mild Atlantic winds return


• Time running out for ‘coldies’?

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2020/01/31/john-hammonds-month-ahead-winter-over-before-began/

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Mainly mild with spells of wet, windy weather

_________________________________

Saturday 1 February – Sunday 9 February

Unsettled and mild, but with a short cold spell

After a cold start to the week when we had snow in some parts of the country, temperatures have been on the up. It has been rather unsettled with showers and rain affecting the country most days of the week. This weekend won't see much change to this pattern. Both Saturday and Sunday will see showers and rain moving across the country. It will be windy in some areas too, so despite the mild air we're currently in it might feel a bit chilly. Monday and Tuesday will see a deep low pressure system moving close to or across the north of the country. This system will bring very strong winds to some areas - gales, severe gales are likely, and it could become stormy over Scotland. There will be showers and rain too.

As the low pressure system shifts eastwards, we will see a spell of northerly or north-westerly winds developing. It will become colder in all areas, and with the strength of the wind on Tuesday it will feel chilly. At the same time as the low shifts eastwards, we'll see high pressure building to the south-west then west of the country. This will drift overhead on Wednesday, which looks dry and calm, especially compared to Tuesday, but still rather cool. Later in the week, the ridge of high pressure will decline, and we'll see a return to westerly winds. Then end of the week looks milder but windier and wetter. There's even a chance of another spell of very windy weather next weekend.

Monday 10 February – Sunday 16 February

Very wet and very windy ... but still mild

The trend towards wetter and windier weather at the end of next week is expected to continue. We expect a powerful jet stream over the North Atlantic Ocean to drive deep low pressure systems into the UK. The upshot of this is that the week looks like a wet and very windy week. There will be the risk of one or more spells of stormy weather, and disruptive winds are perhaps more likely than we've seen so far this winter. Showers and heavy rain are expected too, especially but not exclusively in the west. Given that as the ground has not had a chance to dry out from the very wet autumn and early winter, there is likely to be a threat of flooding.

The other notable feature is that our winds will be coming in from a relatively warm Atlantic Ocean. This means that it will remain milder than normal for the time of year.
We haven't seen a lot of cold weather this winter, and it looks rather unlikely that we'll see anything in this part of the month, except for very brief spells of something cooler between weather systems. Sleet or snow is possible on high ground in the north, but we don't expect any significant snow to lower levels.

Monday 17 February – Sunday 1 March

Unsettled at first but calming down later

At first, there won't be too much change to the weather after mid-month. Atlantic weather systems will continue to move in, bringing more very unsettled, perhaps stormy weather.
With the weather expected to remain wet with only short drier spells for any recovery, there will still be an increased risk of flooding. Strong winds are expected to continue across the country, probably causing some disruption too. It will remain mild. After such an unsettled month, it will be some relief to see that the weather should start to quieten down towards the end of the month. This is likely to be the result of high pressure building from the south as the jet stream drifts northwards.

It does mean that the south of the UK will see an improvement in the weather first, whilst the north remains unsettled for longer. Western parts of Scotland may stay a little wetter than average until quite close to the end of the month. It is too early to say whether we'll see another spell of "anticyclonic gloom", with a lot of cloud, mist and murk but it is a possibility. However, high pressure could also bring settled, clear, crisp conditions which might allow a few cold nights - similar to what we'll get at the start of February. We still don't see any signs of any prolonged cold and widespread snowy weather developing. In fact, one theme that does continue right through until the end of February and start of March is the mildness. Temperatures are most likely to remain above normal for the time of year through the last couple of weeks of the month.

Further ahead

We'll update the details of the stormy weather we expect around the middle of February.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Thursday 6 Feb - Saturday 15 Feb

The beginning of this period may bring sunny spells for many but also periods of wind and rain, with a risk of gales in the north. Cold at first on Thursday with frost likely, however becoming milder again by Friday. Further ahead, a continuation of unsettled spells is expected throughout this period. Although there will be spells of rain and strong winds at times, these will be interspersed with brighter but showery interludes. The heaviest rain or stronger winds are expected in the west and northwest with the best of drier and brighter conditions in the south and southeast. Any colder interludes carry the risk of frost or wintry showers on high ground in the north, however these are expected to be short-lived.

Saturday 15 Feb - Saturday 29 Feb

Although confidence remains low for this period, continued unsettled weather is expected, with spells of rain and strong winds broken by brighter but showery conditions. The heavier rain and stronger winds are expected in northwest with the drier conditions expected towards to south. Perhaps becoming more generally settled toward the end of February. Temperatures are expected to stay unseasonably mild, with any dry and cold interludes fairly brief.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Friday 7 Feb - Sunday 16 Feb

Friday will probably remain settled, dry and mainly overcast throughout much of the UK, with a few early fog patches in the south. Later in the day, conditions may turn more unsettled, with rain approaching and stronger winds from the northwest. However, confidence is low on the timing of this breakdown. Further ahead, unsettled conditions are expected to dominate. Although there will be spells of rain and strong winds at times, these will be interspersed with brighter but showery interludes. The heaviest rain or stronger winds are expected in the west and northwest with the best of drier and brighter conditions in the south and southeast. Any colder interludes carry the risk of frost or wintry showers on high ground in the north, however these are expected to be short-lived.

Sunday 16 Feb - Sunday 1 Mar

Although confidence remains low for this period, continued unsettled weather is expected, with spells of rain and strong winds broken by brighter but showery conditions. The heavier rain and stronger winds are expected in the northwest with the drier conditions expected towards the south. Perhaps becoming more generally settled toward the end of February. Temperatures are expected to stay unseasonably mild, with any dry and cold interludes fairly brief.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

​ Dry, hot summers could become 'norm' in Scotland

Quote

 

Dry, hot summers with temperatures of about 30C are set to become the norm in Scotland, a new study suggests. Researchers say the country should prepare for more like the record-breaking summer of 2018. It was unusually hot that summer, with a near record high of 31.9C recorded at Bishopton in Renfrewshire. Unless greenhouse gas emissions are cut substantially, researchers say every summer could be like 2018 towards the end of the century.

The report by researchers from Edinburgh and Oxford universities and Met Office staff analyses UK climate projections. They suggest there is a substantial increase in the likelihood of temperatures reaching 2018's levels between now and 2050. And they say the country should start planning now to deal with more frequent higher temperatures brought about as a result of climate change.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-51347881?ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central&ns_campaign=bbc_weather&ns_mchannel=social

​

Saturday 8 Feb - Monday 17 Feb

Becoming more unsettled on Saturday, with rain spreading eastwards and reaching most areas through the day. The driest and brightest weather will be seen in the east and southeast before rain arrives later. Brief bright spells in the west and northwest should follow the band of rain, before heavier rain and strong, possibly showery winds develop later. Further ahead, unsettled conditions are expected to dominate; generally windy with spells of rain at times, interspersed with brighter but showery interludes. The heaviest rain and strongest winds are expected in the west and northwest with the best of any drier and brighter conditions in the south and southeast. Any colder interludes carry the risk of frost or wintry showers on high ground in the north, however these are expected to be short-lived.

Monday 17 Feb - Monday 2 Mar

A continuation of the unsettled weather is expected at first, with spells of rain and strong winds broken by brighter but showery conditions. The heavier rain and stronger winds are expected in the northwest with the drier conditions expected towards the south. Perhaps becoming more generally settled through late February, but confidence by this point is very low. Temperatures are expected to stay unseasonably mild, with any dry and cold interludes fairly brief.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

So we were being told 20-odd years ago as well.

If you want my opinion, summers in my neck of the woods in the past 20 or so years have become worse, not better. Those of the 1990s, from what I recall of them, were generally drier than many have been since the turn of the millenium. Yes, there have been notably good ones such as 2003, 2006 and 2018, but there have been some shockingly bad summers too; anyone remember the likes of 2007 and 2012?