BBC monthly outlook
Summary
Generally mild but wet and windy in January
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Saturday 28 December – Sunday 5 January
Mild and drier with a cold snap around New Years
This weekend a mild but dreary weather pattern is expected, with temperatures widely into double figures and reaching the mid-teens in some places. However, it will be a grey affair with largely overcast skies across the country, particularly on Saturday. Things will be mostly dry except for northwestern areas of Scotland and parts of eastern Northern Ireland, where weak fronts will linger and bring some patches of rain. From Monday, the clouds should finally break across much of England and Wales, but northern parts of the country will stay damp and dreary.
On New Years Eve high pressure will begin to build over the UK and the clear skies and calm winds overnight will allow temperatures to fall away. Frost is expected for northern areas with overnight lows into the low single figures in the south. The rest of the week and into the following weekend will see the New Years Eve high pressure gradually slide away and allow frontal systems to reach into the UK from the west. It will be more frequently wet and windy in the northwest, whilst southern and eastern parts of Britain see some lengthy dry and clear spells. It will be mild for the time of year.
Monday 6 January – Sunday 12 January
Staying mild but wet and windy at times
We expect to see a slight shift in the weather pattern heading into the first full week of the new year, but high pressure will often lurk nearby to the south. This will create a distinct north and south split in the weather across the country. Southern areas will see greater influence from high pressure and will tend to be drier and brighter with occasional wet and windy days as cold fronts dive south. Meanwhile, northern parts of the UK will see more frequent fronts and therefore more in the way of wet weather.
Scotland and Northern Ireland will see the bulk of this rain, but parts of northern England will be fairly wet at times too. However, despite this north-south split, mild conditions are expected for all and overall temperatures will run several degrees above where they should be in early January. Behind the passage of cold fronts, there will be a few cold nights with a chance for some frost. It is still January after all, and mild weather at this time of year can still feel pretty chilly!
Monday 13 January – Sunday 26 January
Temperatures nearer normal, perhaps stormy
For mid and late January, a gradual shift in the weather pattern is expected across Europe, with low pressure tracks able to dip further south into France or Spain. This will expose the UK to more wet and windy weather, as opposed to mainly just northern areas of the country. Some of these low pressure systems may be quite strong and bring in some very stormy weather. This will also bring an end to the mild spell, with temperatures returning to nearer the norm for January. As a result, snow showers will become increasingly likely for Scotland and parts of northern England.
Towards the end of the month the southern plunge of the low pressure tracks will likely wave back north. Fronts would then return to mainly impact northern areas with some high pressure creeping into the south of the country at times. Likely turning mild again, with no strong signals at this time for any widespread or prolonged cold outbreaks. Confidence is low towards late January, mainly due to how influential high pressure may be.
Further ahead
Will we be able to cling on to a mild winter, or will storms in mid-January herald a return of the cold?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook