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 Met office 10 Day trend

Next 10 Days

Wet & windy this week
Gradually turning calmer

Christmas week

Higher pressure
Drier and calmer for a time

 

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Weather warning for much of the south and southwest in force for almost 48 hours for heavy and persistent rain. Lovely.

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Weather warning for much of the south and southwest in force for almost 48 hours for heavy and persistent rain. Lovely.

 

Dire here Rob!

Never seen so much rain - it's the sheer continuation and persistence of the rain - it really is relentless.

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Tuesday 24 Dec - Thursday 2 Jan

It looks likely to start rather unsettled and possibly windy, with further showers or perhaps some longer spells of rain in places, but also drier brighter interludes. However, after a mostly mild start to next week, there are signs that the weather may become drier and quieter, at least for a time, around Christmas, with an increased risk of frost and patchy fog. How long any such quieter, somewhat colder spell lasts is very uncertain, but there is a possibility that it could last to the end of next week. However it seems more likely that the weather will become more changeable again with near normal temperatures, particularly in the north and west, with more spells of rain and strong winds. Southeastern areas may well have longer dry spells.

Thursday 2 Jan - Thursday 16 Jan

Confidence is low throughout this period. By New Year and into the first week of January, we may be seeing some longer spells of more widely dry, quiet and bright weather, especially for southern and central areas, with the northwest more likely to remain unsettled. Thereafter it may become more unsettled again with the bulk of the rain and strongest winds in the west and northwest of the UK and the best of any drier and brighter conditions in the east and southeast. Temperatures should be near average overall, but with the usual day to day variations. However in quieter spells, it is likely to be colder generally, with an increased risk of frost and fog.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

​Met Office says warming trend will continue in 2020

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-50839974

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My daughter is at 1,300m in Madarao the central alps of Japan. She is working there for the ski season and as of yet any fallen snow has melted or it has rained.
The local talk is that this is extremely unusual for the location. At 8pm their time today the temperature was still 7c.
Colder air is expected at the weekend but they are concerned it will not last. It appears it’s not just Europe that is suffering above average temperatures.

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John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

• Turning chilly through festive period


• Freezing fog patches


• Uncertain return of milder air later

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2019/12/20/john-hammonds-something-more-seasonal/

Christmas weather: Festive cold snap on cards with temperatures forecast to drop 

  Quote

A festive cold snap could be on the cards for Christmas, offering a break from the heavy rain which is currently lashing parts of the UK and causing severe disruption. While there is no sign of any immediate let up in the torrential downpours that have led to flash flooding in places, forecasters say it looks like the weather may turn drier and colder going into Christmas Day. Although uncertain how long any "quieter, somewhat colder spell" will last, there is a possibility that it could last to the end of next week, says the Met Office.

https://news.sky.com/story/christmas-weather-festive-cold-snap-on-cards-with-temperatures-forecast-to-drop-11891059

Flooding brings travel disruption across South East of England

  Quote

Flooding is causing disruption to travel across the south east of England after heavy rain overnight. The M23 has been closed between junctions 10 and 11 in both directions in West Sussex, Highways England said. On the railways, Southern, Thameslink and Gatwick Express passengers have been advised not to travel, with disruption to services on the Brighton mainline.

Southeastern says there are no trains between Strood and Maidstone West. "A tree blocking the railway between Strood and Maidstone West means all lines are blocked. Train services running between these stations will be suspended. "Disruption is expected until the end of the day." Trains between Brighton and Haywards Heath are being disrupted and there are no services between Haywards Heath and Three Bridges.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-50863956

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

• Turning chilly through festive period


• Freezing fog patches


• Uncertain return of milder air later

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2019/12/20/john-hammonds-something-more-seasonal/

thanks, however he said chillier. I really don't expect the full 3 months to be weather system after weather system...wet and windy etc/. 

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UK travel: M23 shut by flooding as millions begin Christmas getaway 

https://news.sky.com/story/uk-travel-m23-shut-by-flooding-as-millions-begin-christmas-getaway-11890992

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My daughter is at 1,300m in Madarao the central alps of Japan. She is working there for the ski season and as of yet any fallen snow has melted or it has rained.
The local talk is that this is extremely unusual for the location. At 8pm their time today the temperature was still 7c.
Colder air is expected at the weekend but they are concerned it will not last. It appears it’s not just Europe that is suffering above average temperatures.

That's surprising as looking at the Climate Reanalyzer page most of Japan has generally been on the cold side lately

 

https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#t2anom

 

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Wednesday 25 Dec - Friday 3 Jan

Drier and brighter conditions are likely over the festive period which will bring an increased risk of frost and patchy fog overnight. This more settled spell of weather could last till the end of next week, however it is more likely that there is a return to more unsettled and windier conditions, especially across northern and western parts. Southeastern areas may well have a longer drier spells. Towards the end of the period there may be a return to more settled conditions nationwide but confidence is low at this stage. Temperatures should be around normal for the time of year but with some colder spells at times in any settled periods bringing a risk of frost and fog.

Friday 3 Jan - Friday 17 Jan

Confidence is low throughout this period. Drier and brighter conditions should become prevalent through the first week of January. Thereafter it may turn more unsettled again with the worst of the rain and strong winds focused across the west and north west. The east and the southeast should see the best of any drier and brighter weather. Temperatures should be near average for the time of year. However, in any more settled spells, it is likely to be colder generally, with an increased risk of frost and fog.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Wet and windy at times with variable temperatures

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Saturday 21 December – Sunday 29 December

Showers but briefly drier around Christmas

This weekend, much of the UK will have bright spells but with showers in places, too. The showers will be most frequent in the west, some heavy on Sunday. However, southern counties of England are likely to see a more prolonged spell of rain on Saturday night, clearing on Sunday. Given the already saturated ground, this rain could cause some local flooding issues in the south. Temperatures will be near or a little above the late December average for most this weekend but with patchy night frost and fog for Scotland and Northern Ireland. Monday and Tuesday will be rather breezy at times with bright spells and showers in places, perhaps giving way to more prolonged rain from the west later on Tuesday.

A drier and calmer spell of weather is then favoured around Christmas Day and Boxing Day as a high pressure ridge extends from the south. Temperatures should be close to average and there are currently no prospects for a white Christmas, apart from over upland parts of Scotland where we could see a few wintry showers. Later next week, the high pressure area should relax southwards again, allowing milder, wetter and breezier weather to move in from the south-west. However, the south-eastern quarter of the UK could still have a few drier and calmer days and a risk of fog.

Monday 30 December – Sunday 5 January

Wet and windy at times but rather mild

The first week of the New Year is likely to see changeable weather conditions with some wet and windy weather at times. Initially, the chance of rain and brisk winds will be greatest for the north. In the south, high pressure could still be near enough to bring some lengthy drier and calmer periods of weather albeit with a risk of fog in places. There are signs that as the week progresses, the jet stream will strengthen over the Atlantic, driving low pressure areas towards the UK. Therefore, wet and windy conditions are favoured to become more widespread as we go through the week. However, west or south-westerly winds should lead to a fairly mild week with temperatures generally a little above the seasonal average.

Monday 6 January – Sunday 19 January

Unsettled but possibly chillier later

We expect low pressure areas moving in from the Atlantic to influence the weather through much of January. However, the track of these low pressure areas is likely to shift from week to week, bringing changes to where the wettest and windiest weather is focused. The second week of January should see these low pressure areas bringing further wet and windy weather at times across the UK. Rainfall amounts are expected to be above average, which means we could well see some further local flood issues given the saturated river catchments.

Temperatures are likely to be variable with some mild interludes and no sustained cold periods of weather. By the third week of January we may see the low pressure track shifting further south. This means that the wettest and windiest weather could well become focused over the southern half of the UK by then. Further north, it is favoured to become somewhat chillier with an increased prospect for rain to give way to wintry precipitation at times. However, confidence in the forecast by this stage is low - there are chances that much milder, wetter and windier conditions prevail more widely, similar to the previous week.

Further ahead

Can we still expect a soggy start to the New Year?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Thursday 26 Dec - Saturday 4 Jan

Drier and brighter conditions are likely for a time over the festive period which will bring an increased risk of overnight frost and patchy fog. However, there is a possibility of a wetter, windier interlude in places on Boxing Day. Although the more settled spell could last until next weekend, it is more likely that there will be a return to milder, unsettled, windier conditions, especially across northern and western parts, with heavy rain possible in the northwest. Southeastern areas will probably have longer dry spells. These conditions may well persist beyond New Year with temperatures varying around or above average. However, there is always a chance that colder, more settled conditions could become re-established, bringing night frosts and a risk of fog, especially for central and southern areas.

Saturday 4 Jan - Saturday 18 Jan

Confidence is low throughout this period. Drier and brighter conditions should become prevalent through the first week of January. Thereafter it may turn more unsettled again with the worst of the rain and strong winds focused across the west and north west. The east and the southeast should see the best of any drier and brighter weather. Temperatures should be near average for the time of year. However, in any more settled spells, it is likely to be colder generally, with an increased risk of frost and fog.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Tornado reported in Chertsey, Surrey this morning

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-50877501

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Friday 27 Dec - Sunday 5 Jan

There is considerable uncertainty by the latter part of this week. However, wet and windy weather looks increasingly likely to spread across much of the UK on Boxing Day, with a drier interlude possibly following for Friday. However, over next weekend, northwestern areas will probably have a change to milder, unsettled, windier conditions, with some heavy rain possible at times. By contrast, central and especially southeastern areas will probably have a good deal of dry, relatively quiet weather, perhaps with patchy fog and occasional night frosts. It may become more widely unsettled across the UK in early January with gales at times and temperatures still varying around or above average. However, some colder interludes with north or northwest winds and wintry showers are also possible.

Sunday 5 Jan - Sunday 19 Jan

Confidence is low throughout this period. Drier and brighter conditions should become prevalent through the first week of January. Thereafter it may turn more unsettled again with the worst of the rain and strong winds focused across the west and north west. The east and the southeast should see the best of any drier and brighter weather. Temperatures should be near average for the time of year. However, in any more settled spells, it is likely to be colder generally, with an increased risk of frost and fog.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Christmas outlook

Quite mild and drier
Colder Christmas day
Wetter Boxing Day

After Christmas

Possibly becoming drier
Decent temperatures with double figures for most

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/50887242

The met office have issued a yellow warning for Thunderstorms tomorrow (Christmas Eve) in parts of South West England & Wales

05:00 Tomorrow 13:00 Tomorrow

• Rain, hail, lightning and squally winds in association with thunderstorms are likely to cause some impacts to travel during Tuesday morning.

What to expect

• Probably some damage to a few buildings and structures from lightning strikes


• There is a good chance driving conditions will be affected by spray, standing water and/or hail, leading to longer journey times by car and bus


• Delays to train services are possible


• Some short term loss of power and other services is likely

Heavy showers and some thunderstorms are expected to move east during Tuesday morning. These will contain hail, which could briefly cover roads, a risk of lightning and also squally winds with gusts of 60 mph possible.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2019-12-24&id=cb2d3d4a-6ca5-46bc-adca-1a96372cf7b1&details

Saturday 28 Dec - Monday 6 Jan

There is considerable uncertainty by the latter part of this week. Over the weekend, northwestern areas are likely to see mild, unsettled and windy conditions, with some heavy rain possible at times. By contrast, central and especially southeastern areas may have a good deal of dry, relatively quiet weather, with a risk of patchy fog and occasional overnight frosts. Looking further ahead, it may become more widely unsettled across the UK through early January, especially in the north and west, with gales at times and temperatures still varying around or above average. Longer spells of drier weather, however are likely for the southeast. Some colder interludes with north or northwest winds and wintry showers are also possible through this period.

Sunday 5 Jan - Sunday 19 Jan

Confidence is low throughout this period. Drier and brighter conditions should become prevalent through the first week of January. Thereafter it may turn more unsettled again with the worst of the rain and strong winds focused across the west and north west. The east and the southeast should see the best of any drier and brighter weather. Temperatures should be near average for the time of year. However, in any more settled spells, it is likely to be colder generally, with an increased risk of frost and fog.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/