BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Wet and very windy at times but not too cold

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Saturday 7 December – Sunday 15 December

Very windy at times with some milder days

A strong frontal system moving through by Sunday 8th will bring some widespread heavy rain across the country, coupled with some very strong winds. The strongest of these winds will be in southwest England and Wales, especially Cornwall, with some gales or severe gales likely later on Sunday and into Monday. Although things will calm down a bit heading into the working week, this will be a sign of things to come for a while.

Low pressure is expected to sit often near or just north of the UK while a large area of high pressure lurks to the south over the sub-tropical Atlantic. This will mean winds will often be moderate to strong with fronts likely to be frequent. A strong frontal system is likely to sweep across the country on Tuesday and into Wednesday, with further strong wind gusts and bands of heavy rain, although these will mainly be for the southern half of the country.

Election Day will see yet another front move in making for a cloudy, wet, and breezy day, although central and eastern areas may see some brighter and drier weather for a time early on. Later in the week and into the following weekend things will likely stay unsettled across the country, but winds will tend to ease, and temperatures may dip to slightly below average, especially into the weekend. This will mean hill and mountain snow in the northern half of the country may occasionally reach into lowland areas as fronts move in.

Monday 16 December – Sunday 22 December

Staying unsettled, slight risk of lowland snow

For the week before the Christmas holidays, our weather in the UK will become highly dependent on the exact position of the jet stream, which is a ribbon of fast-moving air in the upper atmosphere that drives weather systems. While the jet stream is expected to be nearer to the UK earlier in December, but the third full week we are expecting to see it dip further south into Spain and France for a time. However, at the same time the jet stream is expected to remain strong, so weather systems will tend to be progressive and move through quickly.

What this means for our weather is that things will likely stay quite unsettled with only a few, brief dry spells, but the winds will tend to ease as the stronger winds and fronts are sent to the south. This will also make it harder for the milder sub-tropical air to reach into the UK, so temperatures will likely end up slightly below average, especially in the northern half of the country. This will bring with it a risk of some occasional lowland snow when fronts do move through.

There aren't currently any strong signals for prolonged and intense cold, so any lowland snow events will likely just result in a dusting here and there, mainly for the Central Belt in Scotland and possibly further south into northern England at times. There is a chance that the jet stream will fail to make its southern sojourn and instead remain near the UK throughout the week. This is still an unsettled trend, so we have high confidence it will be often quite wet, but a more northern jet stream will mean it is windier and milder. In this case, lowland snow is unlikely.

Monday 23 December – Sunday 5 January

Turning milder, less windy and eventually drier

For the end of December and into the start of the new year, low pressure is expected to become increasingly less influential on the weather with an area of higher pressure moving in. This will be quite a gradual shift, and high pressure (with its associated drier and milder weather) will likely be quite sluggish to arrive. As a result, 2019 will most likely end on a rather wet note. As the jet stream wiggles its way back north and across the UK, the colder Arctic air will remain locked nearer to Iceland. This means that rather than looking for a white Christmas, one should probably expect a wet Christmas.

Towards the end of the year high pressure will become more influential in Central Europe and begin to make its presence known in the UK. This will start with some longer dry spells in the southeast coupled with some milder air feeding in from the southwest. This will gradually spread northwest as low pressure systems retreat towards Iceland. For New Years and into the first week of 2020, some milder air is likely to reach clear into Scotland with some drier weather and sunnier days. A few weak fronts may creep into Northwest Britain and Northern Ireland, so things will tend to be drearier here.

The main uncertainty in the forecast is how quickly the high pressure may arrive. Weather models are sometimes a bit too keen to bring high pressure in during winter, as Atlantic weather systems are at their strongest for the whole year and are hard to shift. There is a chance that high pressure will build in earlier near the end of December, bringing a break of the wet and windy weather faster.

Further ahead

We will hopefully be able to pin down the notoriously tricky winter jet stream so get a better idea of the cold and snow potential before Christmas.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

• Turbulent times ahead


• No clarity on Christmas weather


• Hints of change towards New Year

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2019/12/06/john-hammonds-christmas-keeps-us-guessing/

Towards the end of the year high pressure will become more influential in Central Europe and begin to make its presence known in the UK. This will start with some longer dry spells in the southeast coupled with some milder air feeding in from the southwest. This will gradually spread northwest as low pressure systems retreat towards Iceland. For New Years and into the first week of 2020, some milder air is likely to reach clear into Scotland with some drier weather and sunnier days. A few weak fronts may creep into Northwest Britain and Northern Ireland, so things will tend to be drearier here.

 

The main uncertainty in the forecast is how quickly the high pressure may arrive. Weather models are sometimes a bit too keen to bring high pressure in during winter, as Atlantic weather systems are at their strongest for the whole year and are hard to shift. There is a chance that high pressure will build in earlier near the end of December, bringing a break of the wet and windy weather faster.

 

Bartlett on the cards 

 

 

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and one for the so-called weather 'bomb' lovers...

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10503149/uk-weather-forecast-brendan-weather-bomb-storm-aatiyah-gusts-election-week/

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We'll see. Wise to treat any long-term outlook with a huge pinch of salt. What's the source for that one, btw?

The winter isn't going in the direction coldies want, but it's December 7th, so no need to panic.

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We'll see. Wise to treat any long-term outlook with a huge pinch of salt. What's the source for that one, btw?

The winter isn't going in the direction coldies want, but it's December 7th, so no need to panic.

 

It was an attempted quote of the BBC update further up this page

Thursday 12 Dec - Saturday 21 Dec

Thursday should see locally heavy showers across the north which may turn wintry over higher ground. Longer spells of rain are possible over central and southern regions. Winds should ease through the day. The changeable theme looks to continue over the next few weeks with showers or longer spells of rain throughout. Any drier interludes are likely to be short-lived in any one place. Temperatures are likely to fall below average, which will increase the risk of wintry showers further north and allow for a low risk of snow along northern edges of rain bands. Some frost and freezing fog is possible at times, mainly across northern regions. Strong winds and a risk of coastal gales throughout the period.

Saturday 21 Dec - Saturday 4 Jan

A more changeable spell is expected towards the end of December, with the greatest potential for heavy rain in the south and east at first, with any snow becoming confined to northern hills. A more typical northwest/southeast split looks likely to develop into the New Year bringing rain to the northwest interspersed with showers, and drier periods further south. This could be accompanied by a general upturn in temperatures, as well as the risk of strong winds at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk

Thursday 12 Dec - Saturday 21 Dec

Temperatures are likely to fall below average, which will increase the risk of wintry showers further north and allow for a low risk of snow along northern edges of rain bands. Some frost and freezing fog is possible at times, mainly across northern regions. 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk

No sign of this in the more reliable time frame in GFS models?? - only for northern Scotland and of course the highlands. etc. 

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No sign of this in the more reliable time frame in GFS models?? - only for northern Scotland and of course the highlands. etc. 

Just a random thought but perhaps the Met Office don’t rely solely on the GFS operational runs?

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Just a random thought but perhaps the Met Office don’t rely solely on the GFS operational runs?

ROFL. You mean the professionals in Exeter don't just fixate on the US model?

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Denver is looking very springlike for December?
+16.0c

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/denver-co/80203/weather-forecast/347810 

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Friday 13 Dec - Sunday 22 Dec

Staying unsettled throughout Friday with blustery showers and spells of rain. Some drier or brighter interludes may develop in the afternoon before further rain arrives later. Staying windy, particularly in the south, with a risk of coastal gales. Temperatures near average in the south, but turning colder further north. The changeable theme looks to continue over the next few weeks with showers or spells of rain throughout. Any drier interludes are likely to be short-lived in any one place. Temperatures look likely to fall below average with the risk of wintry showers in the north alongside a low risk of snow along northern edges of rain bands. Some possible frost and freezing fog at times, mainly across northern regions. Strong winds and a risk of coastal gales throughout the period.

Sunday 22 Dec - Sunday 5 Jan

A more changeable spell is expected towards the end of December, with the greatest potential for heavy rain in the south and east at first, with any snow becoming confined to northern hills. A more typical northwest/southeast split looks likely to develop into the New Year bringing rain to the northwest interspersed with showers, and drier periods further south. This could be accompanied by a general upturn in temperatures, as well as the risk of strong winds at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Friday 13 Dec - Sunday 22 Dec

Staying unsettled throughout Friday with blustery showers and spells of rain. Some drier or brighter interludes may develop in the afternoon before further rain arrives later. Staying windy, particularly in the south, with a risk of coastal gales. Temperatures near average in the south, but turning colder further north. The changeable theme looks to continue over the next few weeks with showers or spells of rain throughout. Any drier interludes are likely to be short-lived in any one place. Temperatures look likely to fall below average with the risk of wintry showers in the north alongside a low risk of snow along northern edges of rain bands. Some possible frost and freezing fog at times, mainly across northern regions. Strong winds and a risk of coastal gales throughout the period.

Sunday 22 Dec - Sunday 5 Jan

A more changeable spell is expected towards the end of December, with the greatest potential for heavy rain in the south and east at first, with any snow becoming confined to northern hills. A more typical northwest/southeast split looks likely to develop into the New Year bringing rain to the northwest interspersed with showers, and drier periods further south. This could be accompanied by a general upturn in temperatures, as well as the risk of strong winds at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Jeez how many weeks make up a "few" ?

I don't have that much confidence in the modeling even from the Met Office

 

 

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Jeez how many weeks make up a "few" ?

I don't have that much confidence in the modeling even from the Met Office

 

 

That was included in yesterday's update too. The time period it refers to is 10 days so how does the "few weeks" apply?

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Saturday 14 Dec - Monday 23 Dec

Staying unsettled throughout Saturday with blustery showers and spells of rain. Some drier or brighter interludes may develop in the southeast. Staying windy, particularly in the south, where there is a risk of coastal gales. Temperatures near average, but turning colder further north. The changeable theme looks to continue over the next few weeks with showers or spells of rain throughout. Any drier interludes are likely to be short-lived in any one place. Temperatures look likely to fall below average, with the risk of wintry showers in the north alongside a low risk of snow along northern edges of rain bands. Some possible frost and freezing fog at times, mainly across northern regions. Strong winds and a risk of coastal gales throughout the period.

Monday 23 Dec - Monday 6 Jan

A more changeable spell is expected towards the end of December, with the greatest potential for heavy rain in the south and east at first, with any snow becoming confined to northern hills. A more typical northwest/southeast split looks likely to develop into the New Year, bringing rain to the northwest interspersed with showers, and drier periods further south. This could be accompanied by a general upturn in temperatures, as well as the risk of strong winds at times.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Sunday 15 Dec - Tuesday 24 Dec

Sunday looks likely to be unsettled with sunshine and blustery showers, wintry over northern hills, perhaps with more persistent rain in places. Early next week it may become less windy generally with some longer drier, brighter spells and local night frost. However it will probably turn generally more unsettled and milder again by mid week as further bands of rain and strong winds sweep northeast across all areas. Most of the rain is likely in the west with drier spells more likely in the east and southeast. Although it looks as if these unsettled conditions will dominate for the rest of the period there is a small chance that things could become drier and colder generally, particularly away from the northwest, with an increased risk of both frost and fog.

Tuesday 24 Dec - Tuesday 7 Jan

Confidence is low throughout this period. Changeable and sometimes windy conditions seem more likely through late December, with the wetter weather in the west and longer drier spells in the east. By the time we go into January, longer spells of more widely dry, quiet and bright weather are possible, especially for southern and central areas, with the northwest more likely to remain unsettled. Temperatures should be near to or somewhat above average overall, but with the usual day to day variations. However in quieter spells, it is likely to be colder generally, with an increased risk of frost and fog.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Just noticed the Raintoday.com radar has been mended with the watermark on the map no longer there. Looks like they've come to an agreement with Google Maps.

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Monday 16 Dec - Wednesday 25 Dec

Following the current very unsettled spell, early next week will probably become less windy generally with some longer drier and brighter spells with local frost and fog. However, it will probably turn generally more unsettled and milder again from around mid-week as further bands of rain and strong winds edge in from the west. Thereafter it looks as if unsettled and sometimes windy conditions will dominate for the rest of the period. Most of the rain will probably be in the west with drier spells more likely in the east and southeast. Snow is likely at times in the north, mainly on high ground. There remains a small chance of some longer colder, dry spells at times, with an increased risk of both frost and fog.

Wednesday 25 Dec - Wednesday 8 Jan

Confidence is low throughout this period. Changeable and sometimes windy conditions seem more likely through late December, with the wetter weather in the west and longer drier spells in the east. By the time we go into January, longer spells of more widely dry, quiet and bright weather are possible, especially for southern and central areas, with the northwest more likely to remain unsettled. Temperatures should be near to or somewhat above average overall, but with the usual day to day variations. However in quieter spells, it is likely to be colder generally, with an increased risk of frost and fog.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Wet and windy at times but not too cold

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Wednesday 11 December – Sunday 15 December

Wet and windy at times. Temperatures near average.

Through the remainder of this week, a strong jet stream moving over the Atlantic Ocean will help to drive further bouts of wet and windy weather across the UK. Wednesday will be bright at times but breezy and quite chilly with showers. The showers will be most frequent in the west and south, with a risk of hail-mixed in and some snow for upland parts of Scotland and northern England. On Thursday, more prolonged outbreaks of rain look set to spread north-eastwards across the UK with a risk of snow for a time over Scottish hills and the northern Pennines.

Further unsettled weather then looks likely for Friday and the weekend with showers and occasional longer spells of rain spreading from the west. It is likely to be windy at times, too, with strongest winds for the southern half of the UK on Friday and then a risk of more widespread strong winds on Saturday. Temperatures will be mostly near to the seasonal average. It will feel chilly at times in the wind and there is a risk of patchy frost under any lengthier clear spells at night.

Monday 16 December – Sunday 22 December

Calmer initially, then wet and windy again

The early part of next week is likely to be less windy than this week. There should be some bright or sunny spells, too, but with further showers in places, these perhaps most heavy and widespread over western areas. Temperatures will start the week near to the average for this time of year with a risk of night frost in places. Through the middle to latter part of next week, low pressure areas are likely to approach the UK again from the west, bringing a return to windier conditions with rain at times.

Currently the rain looks like being most frequent over western parts of the UK, with the potential for some high rainfall totals over western Scotland, Cumbria, Northern Ireland and west Wales. However, most areas are likely to have some rain and there is a risk that the heaviest of the rain could shift a little further east across the country. However, with winds expected to be mostly from the south or south-west from mid-week onwards, we should also experience a recovery in temperatures. It should become milder with temperatures rising above average. This means there should be a lack of night frosts for the second half of next week.

Monday 23 December – Sunday 5 January

Wet and breezy at times. Variable temperatures.

Through the latter part of December, further wet and breezy episodes of weather appear likely as low pressure systems continue to move in from the Atlantic. A subtle change in wind direction means that it is likely to become chillier at times with west or north-westerly winds causing temperatures to fall nearer to the average. However, there should also be some drier and brighter periods of weather, perhaps with the best of those over central and eastern England. Occasional night frosts are likely, too, within any drier, clearer periods of weather.

For Christmas, it is still too early to give any details of the forecast. However, it currently looks like the best chance of any snow would be over Scotland, with temperatures somewhere near to the seasonal average for most. Indications for the first week of the New Year are for a variable pattern of weather. Most likely, we will see wet and windy spells of weather alternating with some drier, calmer but chillier days. There are chances that high pressure could become more dominant, though, which would bring a change to more prolonged drier and calmer weather.

Further ahead

The outlook is currently mixed with wet and windy weather for many at times. We will take another look at the latest indications for the Christmas period.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Met office 10 day trend

Next 10 days

Cold and unsettled
Drier interlude
Mild and unsettled

Next week

Dry for a time
Turning milder
Wet and windy end