BBC monthly outlook
Summary
A spell of stormy weather to come
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Wednesday 5 February – Sunday 9 February
Calm until the weekend, then very unsettled
High pressure is currently sat across the UK with most parts of the country having a spell of dry and calm weather. This is expected to continue until the end of this week with a big change arriving this weekend. The weekend sees westerly winds reasserting themselves, with weather systems coming in from the Atlantic, driven by a very strong jet stream. Saturday will be a windy day with rain crossing the country.
There should be a brief spell of drier weather later, but it won't last. The rest of the weekend will be very windy with gales and severe gales quite widely, and the risk of stormy weather on Sunday. There will also be widespread showers and rain, some of which will be heavy. Some surprisingly mild air will cross the country on Sunday but, given the strength of the wind, it won't feel that mild.
Monday 10 February – Sunday 16 February
Very wet and very windy ... but still mild
There's increasing confidence that the wetter and windier weather expected this weekend will persist into next week. The powerful jet stream over the North Atlantic Ocean will continue to drive deep depressions towards and across the UK throughout much of the week. There will be a risk of gales for many areas, and we could see some stormy weather. There will be a lot of rain too as fronts sweep across the country, with blustery showers likely in between. Northern and western parts of the UK are likely to see the heaviest rain, but it looks very wet in all areas. Given how wet the ground is from rain in the autumn and earlier this winter, there may be a risk of flooding.
Whilst much of next week looks milder than normal, a brief colder spell on Monday and Tuesday is looking increasingly likely. It looks cold enough for there to be snow showers in some parts of the country. Scotland and Northern Ireland look most likely to see snow, this mainly on hills but possibly to lower levels at times. This may cause some travel disruption. Northern England and Wales could also see snow showers on high ground. The rest of the UK is unlikely to see any significant wintry weather but could be rather chilly. It looks milder from midweek onwards, so the risk of snow greatly decreases, but the heavy rain and strong winds are expected to continue through to the end of the week.
Monday 17 February – Sunday 1 March
Unsettled at first but calming down later
There won't be too much change to the weather immediately after mid-month, with further wet and windy weather looking likely. However, we do expect it to become calmer and drier the closer we get to the end of February and start of March. At first, Atlantic low pressure systems will continue to push in from the west, these bringing spells of wet and windy weather. It will remain milder than normal for the time of year, although with some cooler intervals possible between weather systems. High pressure is expected to build from the south as we head later into the month. This will bring calmer and drier weather to more and more of the UK. By the end of February it is looking a lot drier and calmer than it does for the middle of the month. In fact, only the north of Scotland looks likely to see rainfall above normal, with all other areas having rainfall near or below normal.
There is some uncertainty over how quickly high pressure will shift northwards. A little slower than we expect and it will remain wetter and windier for longer. Conversely there is a chance that the ridge of high pressure will move a lot further north than we expect. If this happens then whilst it will be drier and calmer than average across all areas, there may be the chance of some cooler easterly winds across some areas. This is a fairly low risk. Otherwise, temperatures will remain near normal although there will be more of a chance of some cooler nights later in the month.
Further ahead
Will calmer conditions prevail or can we expect more wet and windy weather to start March?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook