Looking at the ensembles this morning for the GFS, it appears that there is a risk and reward element. Low pressure to introduce moisture but will it be too warm?

If circumstances are correct and in a certain locations favour we could expect to see sleet or snow in a number of locations next week. Some people will be happy, others will be knashing teeth.

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Upgrade on the GEFS overnight,  Election Day snow looking more likely.  Snow rows upto 33!

 

 

 

 

 

 

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ECM also looks like it could be getting pretty snowy by days 9/10.

 

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No massive blocks to the east of north but a sinking jet could bring some great weather where looking out the window could be the best forecast. Better the further North you are, expecting some great pictures this month.

Morning - The ECM day 8 > especially 9 & 10 ( as is the GFS ) are extremely rare in the flushing of the vortex directly south over the UK & the total lack of movement eastward across the atlantic of the jet.

At day 10 the weak jet is running SE over the Azores, along towards Lisbon & then up through Spain - Uk Wise very cold especially Northern areas.

Its one of the most unusual charts i've ever seen!

Some interest for next week though it is so far off in model terms that some caution is needed.

Some interest for next week though it is so far off in model terms that some caution is needed.

Agreed last season we were lead up the garden path with tantalising charts until 120 hrs out in some cases. Saying that I love the hope factor..

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Have the cold rampers been hacking the GFS run this morning?

High pressure declining to zonality ths week as before, but starting on Mon 9th with a burst of N-ly from LP over N Sea we have a week with Arctic sourced air and with LP centres over or close to UK on Wed 11th through to Sat 14th. Briefly milder, then setting in again the week after. 

Ens temps up and down but above normal to 9th, then consistently cold, more consistent than yesterday, say 3C below seasonal i.e below zero out to 15th after which still inclined to be cold but less certain. PPtn is there but not enormous amounts, and snow rows even in the south are well represented (total for Brighton 19) so it now looks as if there will be snow for at least some of us, probably a covering rather than deep drifts.

ECM on board with all this, and adds a bit more spice with a small but deep low over Brittany on the 13th at the end of its run

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Have the cold rampers been hacking the GFS run this morning?

High pressure declining to zonality ths week as before, but starting on Mon 9th with a burst of N-ly from LP over N Sea we have a week with Arctic sourced air and with LP centres over or close to UK on Wed 11th through to Sat 14th. Briefly milder, then setting in again the week after. 

Ens temps up and down but above normal to 9th, then consistently cold, more consistent than yesterday, say 3C below seasonal i.e below zero out to 15th after which still inclined to be cold but less certain. PPtn is there but not enormous amounts, and snow rows even in the south are well represented (total for Brighton 19) so it now looks as if there will be snow for at least some of us, probably a covering rather than deep drifts.

ECM on board with all this, and adds a bit more spice with a small but deep low over Brittany on the 13th at the end of its run

Another good summary.

I’ve had a look at the Weather.us site and ECM produces snow for mostly higher ground from North Wales and northern England northwards; nothing for the lowland in the Midlands and south. Definitely cold but as it stands not quite there.  But certainly different to what we might normally expect.

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Have the cold rampers been hacking the GFS run this morning?

High pressure declining to zonality ths week as before, but starting on Mon 9th with a burst of N-ly from LP over N Sea we have a week with Arctic sourced air and with LP centres over or close to UK on Wed 11th through to Sat 14th. Briefly milder, then setting in again the week after. 

Ens temps up and down but above normal to 9th, then consistently cold, more consistent than yesterday, say 3C below seasonal i.e below zero out to 15th after which still inclined to be cold but less certain. PPtn is there but not enormous amounts, and snow rows even in the south are well represented (total for Brighton 19) so it now looks as if there will be snow for at least some of us, probably a covering rather than deep drifts.

ECM on board with all this, and adds a bit more spice with a small but deep low over Brittany on the 13th at the end of its run

Good summary. The possibility of some early wintry potential circa 9-14th.

Slack flow, cold uppers with a jet to the south all could conspire the make things interesting for the coldies here thanks to evaporative cooling and other factors 

The outlook is not without interest.

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Have the cold rampers been hacking the GFS run this morning?

High pressure declining to zonality ths week as before, but starting on Mon 9th with a burst of N-ly from LP over N Sea we have a week with Arctic sourced air and with LP centres over or close to UK on Wed 11th through to Sat 14th. Briefly milder, then setting in again the week after. 

Ens temps up and down but above normal to 9th, then consistently cold, more consistent than yesterday, say 3C below seasonal i.e below zero out to 15th after which still inclined to be cold but less certain. PPtn is there but not enormous amounts, and snow rows even in the south are well represented (total for Brighton 19) so it now looks as if there will be snow for at least some of us, probably a covering rather than deep drifts.

ECM on board with all this, and adds a bit more spice with a small but deep low over Brittany on the 13th at the end of its run

Shocking charts this morning - if your name is Ian Brown or Brian Gaze (joke, joke!). Mild rampers should look away now. 

 

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Looking at the model runs this morning, I reckon that some of us may need sledges or skis to get to the polling station on Dec 12th!

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GEFS 00z remains consistent with recent updates and suggests cooler or colder conditions returning next week. 

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Looking at the model runs this morning, I reckon that some of us may need sledges or skis to get to the polling station on Dec 12th!

yes quite a shock for some could be in store, however getting this output into the reliable timeframe is the key. Hopefully it won’t be another  time when winter is purely lived in model la la land  beyond 120 

Indeed, that’s a fairly strong signal for cold next week. Interesting indeed. When was the last time snow fell on Election Day? Has that ever happened (usually, elections are held in springtime)?

GEFS 00z remains consistent with recent updates and suggests cooler or colder conditions returning next week. 

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yes quite a shock for some could be in store, however getting this output into the reliable timeframe is the key. Hopefully it won’t be another  time when winter is purely lived in model la la land  beyond 120 

Point taken Jacko, although there does seem to be some reasonable run-to-run consistently for this outcome at the moment. As you rightly say though, if the models are still showing this by the time next week gets into the reliable timeframe, then it could well be game on.

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Indeed, that’s a fairly strong signal for cold next week. Interesting indeed. When was the last time snow fell on Election Day? Has that ever happened (usually, elections are held in springtime)?

 

I think the BBC said a few weeks back that the last time a General Election was held in December was way back in 1923. I have no idea what that December was like for weather though!

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I don't think snow has ever fallen on election day. Not in 1923 

It would depress turnout, and force only those really engaged to come out

Not sure who that benefits

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Shocking charts this morning - if your name is Ian Brown or Brian Gaze (joke, joke!). Mild rampers should look away now. 

 

 I can assure you there is nothing I want more than the prospect of snow in the approach to Xmas. Mild and stormy conditions are very good too. What I don't want is 1030mB pushing up from the south. 

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 I can assure you there is nothing I want more than the prospect of snow in the approach to Xmas. Mild and stormy conditions are very good too. What I don't want is 1030mB pushing up from the south. 

That would be OK if it was on its way north to join up with its bigger brother...

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