Seems to be trending the right way Steve. And you can tell that it is because Shropshire is conspicuous by his absence. 😂😂😂

Woah, you know the old saying, Kieren: Speak of the devil and they are sure to appear!

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Seems to be trending the right way Steve. And you can tell that it is because Shropshire is conspicuous by his absence. 😂😂😂

Everything crossed lol!!.. Must be a good omen as just touching Freezing point here already :)

Ah, but it goes mild at the end

edit: (briefly by the look of it!)

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I have limited slow internet access - can anyone post a tasty chart or two? Thanks

I have limited slow internet access - can anyone post a tasty chart or two? Thanks

Depends on whether cold and wet are tasty I guess

It's a variation on a zonal theme as far as I can see with some chilly enough air to give some wintriness for some, biased towards the north and/or higher ground. I imagine there could though be some low level transient snow falling just about anywhere if it came off as shown. For balance should also say before we get to the chilly stuff we have to see off the collapsing HP which brings milder air for all for a time, with increasingly unsettled weather to boot.

So not stellar in the sense of HLB and screaming easterlies/northerlies but not terrible either.

 

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Depends on whether cold and wet are tasty I guess

It's a variation on a zonal theme as far as I can see with some chilly enough air to give some wintriness for some, biased towards the north and/or higher ground. I imagine there could though be some low level transient snow falling just about anywhere if it came off as shown. For balance should also say before we get to the chilly stuff we have to see off the collapsing HP which brings milder air for all for a time, with increasingly unsettled weather to boot.

So not stellar in the sense of HLB and screaming easterlies/northerlies but not terrible either.

 

cheers dave, sounds like a typical cool zonal pattern 

 

cheers dave, sounds like a typical cool zonal pattern 

Yes not sure what the excitement is about, a zonal pattern that as we know from past experience, trends further North closer to the time.

 

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ECM throws up an interesting Election Day with potential for heavy rain sleet or snow

ECM throws up an interesting Election Day with potential for heavy rain sleet or snow

How would any of the PPN to the SW be anything other than rain ? 

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Yes not sure what the excitement is about, a zonal pattern that as we know from past experience, trends further North closer to the time.

 

The reasons for the interest is that cold zonality offers possibilities than  south-westerly or Bartlett don't - and because there's no basis in fact for you assertion that everything trends north.

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How would any of the PPN to the SW be anything other than rain ? 

 

To be fair, the GFS precipitation charts do show a spell of wintry precipitation for example in the south east. Not very reliable of course, but none of it is at this range

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I’m not sure about excitement but there is plenty of interest in the medium term model output. Some milder weather during this week and then potentially more unsettled with colder shots. Whether these are as potent as the GFS 12z op outlier suggests is very questionable but it is worth watching.

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I’m not sure about excitement but there is plenty of interest in the medium term model output. Some milder weather during this week and then potentially more unsettled with colder shots. Whether these are as potent as the GFS 12z op outlier suggests is very questionable but it is worth watching.

In a nutshell, spot on.

All the variations of early winter weather are on offer over the next ten days, from fog and frost through mild and wet and cold and wet, wintry in favoured places and just maybe more widely.

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Its understandable for everyone to be cautious with this type of attenuated pattern as historically they don't stay amplified for long - However to take the approach of - Its the same old same old is always a mistake especially when it means you overlook the detail.

Normally the UK 'cool' zonality scenario allows for one type slider low to pass by allowing for a transient ridge to hold the atlantic back before eventually it drives through with the risk of a bit of snow on the front edge - again some back edge PM air usually presents itself hence the oscillation between a range of say for arguements sake -4c then a lift over 0c before back down to -2c in a NW flow.
>>> Cool Zonality.

What we have here ( modelled ) is wave 1 of cool zonality IE the slider scenario before further amplification of the jet sees this transition to potential Proper cold air because of the quasi stationary low to the ENE ( The anchor point is crucial )

Whats noted in both the models is the secondary phase sees the jet stream diving further south not the traditional pulse East.
This ( I think I mentioned yesterday ) is due to the alignment of the Stratospheric PV over the pole being in a fairly unique position ( displaced over Northern Russia ) the 10HPA wind over the pole is SSW which is supporting the deflection of the jet along the same axis > Due south.

With that in mind there is a 'higher' than average chance that cold can be sustained as the trough axis appears to go from NW > SE to more N> S instead of backing back W>E

based on that & looking at the bigger picture theres genuine reason for excitement which doesnt have to be at the expense of caution > but should be given more credit over the 'same old same old style of forecasting ....

No real surprise to see 12z op run from the gfs due I think to  strat forcing. The 12z ecm run much less inspiring considering its bias for over amplifing the pattern normally. The morning runs will tell us if we are heading for our first potent cold snap/spell of the winter.

The 18z is all but a mirror image of the 12z

NB the jet at 210 is bent south like a boomerang.
No mild SW flow appearing for a good while after that then.....

No real surprise to see 12z op run from the gfs due I think to  strat forcing. The 12z ecm run much less inspiring considering its bias for over amplifing the pattern normally. The morning runs will tell us if we are heading for our first potent cold snap/spell of the winter.

second, you mean?

Pretty icey out there again right now.

Lots of deep cold flooding into Scandinavia again next week on the pub run

 

edit: Rudimentary signs of a Scandy high development later on. A recurring theme.

Think the forecasters going for December to be above average CET ,along with the whole winter too,will wished they had waited longer before making their winter forecasts.
I'd be very surprised if Dec finished above average looking at current output,trending colder after the weekend the cet not higher.

Think the forecasters going for December to be above average CET ,along with the whole winter too,will wished they had waited longer before making their winter forecasts.
I'd be very surprised if Dec finished above average looking at current output,trending colder after the weekend the cet not higher.

I admire your commitment to giving upbeat views but you’re being a tad premature as the charts only get to mid-month at the moment.

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