A wintry and wild polling day if this comes about:

Early evening when most people are likely to vote when they get back from work!?? - This of course will change but this unsettled and wild or stormy and snowy theme continues for 12th Dec.

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GFS much like yesterday until Tue 12th i.e HP declining to westerly flow, even NW around 9th; then a deep and cold LP with northerlies 12th - 14th (wasn't shown until 14th at this time yesterday but models steadily moving it earlier since - a worry for election organisers) going back to W/SW flow by 18th

After propping up a HP cell, UK Jetstream resuming generally strong W - E from Thu, first to the N of UK but sinking southwards. Notable loop S-wards 12th/13th allowing cold LP to follow in its wake, then back to W - E the following week.

ECM matches GFS to end of TWO charts at T+240 (Tue 11th) and the last chart has an LP positioned to come south much as GFS

Ens temps oscillate between seasonal average and above to about 8th Dec, the a long period where most but not all runs a degree or two below. Variable amount of pptn 7th onward; snow row totals only significant for N England and Scotland

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GFS much like yesterday until Tue 12th i.e HP declining to westerly flow, even NW around 9th; then a deep and cold LP with northerlies 12th - 14th (wasn't shown until 14th at this time yesterday but models steadily moving it earlier since - a worry for election organisers) going back to W/SW flow by 18th

After propping up a HP cell, UK Jetstream resuming generally strong W - E from Thu, first to the N of UK but sinking southwards. Notable loop S-wards 12th/13th allowing cold LP to follow in its wake, then back to W - E the following week.

ECM matches GFS to end of TWO charts at T+240 (Tue 11th) and the last chart has an LP positioned to come south much as GFS

Ens temps oscillate between seasonal average and above to about 8th Dec, the a long period where most but not all runs a degree or two below. Variable amount of pptn 7th onward; snow row totals only significant for N England and Scotland

Thanks David. I find your objective summaries useful. 

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ECM is encouraging in later stages, where is goes after is possibly zonal but enough in it to think there could be a build of heights to the north. Better to have slightly different Synoptics rather than looking at a mild long fetch SW on the wrong side of the jet.

both ECM and GFS 00z run again gives us a cold and stormy as well as wintry election polling day:

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I'm happy with what's on offer , certainly no blow torch SWlies .

 

Looks ok to me 

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I'm happy with what's on offer , certainly no blow torch SWlies .

 

Looks ok to me 

 

Lot's of cold zonality!! We had that in 2014/15 and 2017/18 winter.

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Lot's of cold zonality!! We had that in 2014/15 and 2017/18 winter.

The Apostrophe Society has now given up, so you can now stop using apostrophes completely, with improved results

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Lot's of cold zonality!! We had that in 2014/15 and 2017/18 winter.

More so in the latter than the former, at least as far as my own area was concerned.

In mid-January 2018 we had about 5-6 consecutive days here of heavy snow showers from a NW airflow which left quite a few inches on the ground, the most snow we had that winter prior to the Beast from the East at the end of Febuary 2018.

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Morning -

Continued enjoyment to be found in the models today as the move to a pattern that can deliver copious amount of snow given the right balance of atlantic moisture V polar air - however of course a nudge in from the azores high could scupper things..

Its a pattern that doesn't usually stay attenuated for to long - but it can be very good - 1996 being the holy grail.

S

 

The Apostrophe Society has now given up, so you can now stop using apostrophes completely, with improved results

...and the double exclamation mark. Where will punctuation inflation take us???

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...and the double exclamation mark. Where will punctuation inflation take us???

I'm a firm believer in the adage that everyone should be born with a strict allocation of exclamation marks.

Anyway, GFS 6z once again showing PM potential next week - looks messy, but Scotland could do very well from set-ups like this.

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I see the Met office outlook Sunday 15th-29th (updated this morning) mentions wintry showers, then ends with  a transition to some longer, more settled and colder periods.

 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

 

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I'll be arriving in Scotland from Australia on 14th Dec for 3 weeks. If you could hold that Northerly off by 2 or 3 days , so i can build a snowman with my little fella please.  

Steady as she goes, cool zonality looks a form horse as we progress into the month. Whilst the majority of England and Wales will wonder what all the fuss is about, at least it’s no blowtorch as Marcus has pointed out above.

I'm a firm believer in the adage that everyone should be born with a strict allocation of exclamation marks.

 

Noted!!!!!

 

 

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12z GFS seems to be taking an interesting (N NE -erly) turn during next week

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Indeed probably the best run of the winter-
Look at the 10HPA Strat wind its now fully across the pole forcing SSW - Impacting the bend of the jet !
Lovely!!

12z GFS seems to be taking an interesting (N NE -erly) turn during next week

 

Yes stunning GFS 12z so far " The Famous Election Day Blizzard " we can but dream.

 

 

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Indeed probably the best run of the winter-
Look at the 10HPA Strat wind its now fully across the pole forcing SSW - Impacting the bend of the jet !
Lovely!!

Seems to be trending the right way Steve. And you can tell that it is because Shropshire is conspicuous by his absence. 😂😂😂

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