theweatheroutlook

ballamar
03 December 2019 10:15:54
Something very interesting about the GFS run and the prospect of a sliding low let’s see where it ends up but could be a good one for cold prospect
Gandalf The White
03 December 2019 10:23:14

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 


I don't think snow has ever fallen on election day. Not in 1923 


It would depress turnout, and force only those really engaged to come out


Not sure who that benefits



December 6th 1923 looks chilly but dry under a weak ridge, maybe an isolated shower in the south east corner



 

Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Richard K
03 December 2019 10:27:06
6z GFS definitely an interesting one. For MBY I would like to see that low pressure dropping southward...
Saffron Walden, NW Essex, approx 70m above sea level (when the tide is out)
Steve Murr
03 December 2019 10:40:09
06z has 50cm of snow for Surrey & hampshire at ~252 > 264
For the lols ( same system as ECM day 10 )
ballamar
03 December 2019 10:40:51
Amusing 11 day GFS chart with a record snowfall event!
The Beast from the East
03 December 2019 10:41:17

Bitter election day Hopefully the old will stay indoors


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Richard K
03 December 2019 10:45:05
Liking the precipitation plot at 252 hrs. Will definitely happen as shown
Saffron Walden, NW Essex, approx 70m above sea level (when the tide is out)
Brian Gaze
03 December 2019 10:45:10

Here's a static snapshot of the GFS 06z snow depth forecast. 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
03 December 2019 10:48:22

When did Chichester last see depths of 5cm let alone 56cm? Allow me to be sceptical (but hopeful nevertheless)

War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Gavin P
03 December 2019 10:50:27

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


 


December 6th 1923 looks chilly but dry under a weak ridge, maybe an isolated shower in the south east corner



 



 


I did a post about the weather during past December elections on my website a few weeks ago


https://www.gavsweathervids.com/uk-general-election-weather-forecast-december-2019.php


I'll have to do an update when I get a bit of time now that 12th December in coming into the semi-reliable time frame...

Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
The Professional
03 December 2019 10:57:28

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


Here's a static snapshot of the GFS 06z snow depth forecast. 




That is a BANK!!! for the ages here in mid-Hants. A once in a lifetime event if it ever occurred as modelled above.

Arcus
03 December 2019 11:08:24

Yesterday's ECM Monthly picks up on the colder theme mid-month before reverting milder:





Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Broadmayne Blizzard
03 December 2019 11:19:43
Repeat of January 1881 if the GFS 06 came off as proposed.
Formerly Blizzard of 78
The Beast from the East
03 December 2019 11:23:23

the good thing about this potential spell is that you have plenty of moisture around and no solar heating to worry about. uppers don't need to be that cold

"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Heavy Weather 2013
03 December 2019 11:24:24

WOW to 06z GFS.

Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Rob K
03 December 2019 11:24:54

Originally Posted by: The Professional 


 


That is a BANK!!! for the ages here in mid-Hants. A once in a lifetime event if it ever occurred as modelled above.



Back in Jan 2010 some parts of the Hants/Surrey borders got 40cm. 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
Richard K
03 December 2019 11:36:36
Slight outlier for precipitation in the ensembles for London around the 14th, regrettably
Saffron Walden, NW Essex, approx 70m above sea level (when the tide is out)
The Professional
03 December 2019 11:38:09

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


 


Back in Jan 2010 some parts of the Hants/Surrey borders got 40cm. 



 


I remember it well Rob as I was working in Hook at the time. The GFS 06z would, I think, be on a wider and potentially even greater scale, hence my hyperbole. All moot of course as it will not happen as shown today, but it's nice both to dream and also to reminisce about the start of the decade.

idj20
03 December 2019 11:43:24

I do think the 11th to 13th on the latest GFS would turn out to be the most likely set up. How do I know that? Kent completely misses out on the snow but still end up with storm force southerly winds anyway.     

Folkestone Harbour. 
Whiteout
03 December 2019 11:46:44
Wow, epic 06z run, not alone in ens either 👍
Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl

Winter 22/23:

Snow falling days - 3
Snow lying days - 3
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