Back to the models, I wouldn't push the 12z GFS out of bed with a longer lasting and cold unstable NE airflow over the SE by mid-month and the Atlantic incursion taking longer to make its move. However, at 260 hrs and beyond, it's all in FI land anyway. 

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Full of promise at 300hrs potential Scandi build and sliding low

Full of promise at 300hrs potential Scandi build and sliding low

 

by 312 the low elongates to the SW and we get colder (-8C at 850hpa) air drawn in from the SE

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One of the most crazy runs ever with the jet diving over Africa at 300

Just got to get over that amplification hurdle @114 & its good.

we will see different outcomes for the next few days, but the pattern is clear. The Jet is set to dive south over europe next week. The impact of this isnt clear, but given an unsettled Atlantic could offer up snow anywhere in the UK.

Given the extent of heavy precipitation recently, its only reasonable to assume theres potential for a decent snowfall for some.

We just need to maintain the Jet dive signal over the next few runs.

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The GFS 12Z Op ends with a Scandi High and cold Easterlies

 

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That's some chilly air

 

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Ice days record snowfalls diving jet Scandi highs - welcome to GFS FI which starts at day 5

Ice days record snowfalls diving jet Scandi highs - welcome to GFS FI which starts at day 5

 

Although not a outlier, the Op is at the bottom of the pack in the Ensemble in terms of 850hpa temps, but I'd say it IS an outlier in terms of 2m temps at the end

 

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Not an outlier, Kieron. A trendsetter 😉

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Nicee to see some eye candy FI charts coinciding with the days with lowest insolation. It will be interesting to see if the output moderates in the next few days or if the recent trend continues, it will also be interesting to keep an eye on the 12th of December for obvious reasons. Realistically that is still in FI but the last few runs have been quite consistent in the general pattern.

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Not an outlier, Kieron. A trendsetter 😉

 

If only there was a 'like' button on here.  The ECM will make interesting viewing

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If only there was a 'like' button on here.  The ECM will make interesting viewing

ECM 12z looks decent so far, IMO.

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Could be Election Day nightmare rain in the south though

Impressive consistency given the range.

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Unusual synoptics being shown with the jet plunging South but with nothing in the way of Northern blocking - treat with extreme caution.

 

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Unusual synoptics being shown with the jet plunging South but with nothing in the way of Northern blocking - treat with extreme caution.

 

stop ramping

Unusual synoptics being shown with the jet plunging South but with nothing in the way of Northern blocking - treat with extreme caution.

 

I think many on here have been let down enough over the years to treat the current cold output with caution. I think this forum is pretty good for not going OTT with ramping up a cold spell that hasn't materialised yet.

We have two of the 'big three' singing from the same hymn sheet with the jet diving south allowing sliding lows to delver increasingly wintry outbreaks from the north. UKMO flatter but not a million miles away.

I'm sure you can see why some are getting excited about the prospects of cold and snow, though. These aren't outliers after all - the trend whichever way you look at it is increasingly cold as next week progresses. Perhaps the phrase 'cautious optimism' is about right? 

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Unusual synoptics being shown with the jet plunging South but with nothing in the way of Northern blocking - treat with extreme caution.

 

 

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I admire your commitment to giving upbeat views but you’re being a tad premature as the charts only get to mid-month at the moment.

I wonder how many LRF are going to change pretty soon,if the current output continues.