GEFS 06z follow recent updates. The consistency is notable. 

Trending colder again on the 12z 

 

 

Zzonal winds taking a dive and weakening rapidly so PV would be less strong? 

http://weatheriscool.com/prod/interactiveTserie.html

 

Zonal winds at 100mb (roughly 50.000 ft ) just over 11m/s yet although temps are around or slightly below average we still can not get a cold pattern to develope via the north or east. Therefore not overly optimistic that a weakening strat vortex and 10mb zonal winds will change things although I would rather have a week strat vortex than a strong one. Perhaps with weaker strat winds heights in the trop will be able to strengthen further and hopefully make more of an impact than they have so far. 

Doesn't look like turning Zonal anytime soon.
Could be a big northerly outbreak before too long,if anyone is interested which appears not with hardly any posts,despite the most interesting NH profile at this time of year for a long time.

The 0z is really rather interesting.

It still develops that big low than meanders around around the UK, but northern blocking holds it nerves.

One gets the feeling that we could see a switch in the ensembles to a much colder pattern in the next few days.

It has to be said, that while a few days ago a pattern reset looked on the cards to a certain extend the GFS at least has backed off this.

This remains a fascinating period of model watching

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GFS 0z extends the life of a trough of LP lying N-S across the UK/N Sea to next Tue (19th) after which the Atlantic low previously forecast takes over, first W of Ireland, then decaying and drifting slowly SE to Sun 24th i.e. more to the S than yesterday's forecast. Thereafter a short break before more LP sets up to the SE. Finally the continental block relaxes its grip a fraction and that trough moves E by Fri 29th to get sandwiched between HP over Russia and a ridge of HP over the UK which becomes well established by the 1st, extending up to the Norwegian Sea. Yesterday's zonal stuff has disappeared so I'd call this untypical for this time of year.

Blocking - certainly a powerful block moving around over Russia, keeping LPs at bay. And to the north? Maybe, but more in evidence by the absence of depressions tracking through than anything positive.

ECM looks similar until the end of its run, Mon 25th, when it develops a deep depression off Norway with a strong northerly heading towards us.

Ens runs show temps fairly close to the mean, some +, some - through to the end of the forecast. Some widespread rain around the 21st, otherwise splashes here and there

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Temperatures slowly recovering next week but rain is never far from our shores. Thereafter anyone’s guess, but the patterns look very strange for the time of year.

Temperatures slowly recovering next week but rain is never far from our shores. Thereafter anyone’s guess, but the patterns look very strange for the time of year.

My perception of this Autumn is that it has been a proper Autumn wet or very wet at times windy at times and average to cool with no very high temperatures which we have seen in recent Autumns you could say an Autumn from the 80`s .

So I would agree Jacko feels quite strange at the moment maybe something is brewing we will see.

A few more submariners on the GFS 00z 850 Ens I notice compared with yesterday's 00z. The only consistency at the moment is the inconsistency it would seem.

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Bit of a trend for HP to rise around Iceland in 10/11 days time. Hopefully can build more over Greenland and tap into that cold to the North

www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_237_1.png

We need to get the cold into Scandi and on this run we manage it, but will the high then play ball to allow a proper easterly feed to develop?

 

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Bit of a trend for HP to rise around Iceland in 10/11 days time. Hopefully can build more over Greenland and tap into that cold to the North

 

Aye

HP seems to be appearing either ove the Uk or just slightly to the north.

 

Even if this just brought a period of dry weather - id be happy.  Fed up of all this rain now.

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www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_237_1.png

We need to get the cold into Scandi and on this run we manage it, but will the high then play ball to allow a proper easterly feed to develop?

 

Nothing on this run, the high just deflates and the model goes back to a default pattern 

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Despite high pressure building to the north the lack of cold upper level air over Europe is extraordinary. In fact a plume of upper level warmth develops that wouldn't look out of place in the summer months https://t.co/6V9stBd1iW pic.twitter.com/5A1VROAGk0

— TheWeatherOutlook (@TWOweather) November 15, 2019

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Despite high pressure building to the north the lack of cold upper level air over Europe is extraordinary. In fact a plume of upper level warmth develops that wouldn't look out of place in the summer months https://t.co/6V9stBd1iW pic.twitter.com/5A1VROAGk0

— TheWeatherOutlook (@TWOweather) November 15, 2019

not quite summer at the ground level though and if the air stagnates could easily be some chilly temps

 

not quite summer at the ground level though and if the air stagnates could easily be some chilly temps

Agree but even at the 2m level it still looks pretty "warm" for the time of year in much of Europe.

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Quick heads up.. Arpege 06z and 18z (in addition to 00z and 12z) are now available on TWO.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/arpege.aspx

 

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Quick heads up.. Arpege 06z and 18z (in addition to 00z and 12z) are now available on TWO.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/arpege.aspx

 

thanks Brian, I’ve always rated the Arpege especially for winter precipitation 

Met office seasonal prob model has been updated. This looks like a very warm Hemisphere. With Dec, Jan & Feb going average or milder than average everywhere in the N. Hemisphere with perhaps only Nepal/Himalaya and western China forecast to have below average temps. 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob

 

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Met office seasonal prob model has been updated. This looks like a very warm Hemisphere. With Dec, Jan & Feb going average or milder than average everywhere in the N. Hemisphere with perhaps only Nepal/Himalaya and western China forecast to have below average temps. 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob

 

They could not have been more wrong in their Autumn  temp forecast 60% probability of above average temps. Then during their mid Autumn update they increase the likelyhood of a above normal Autumn temp wise to 60 - 80%. almost unheard of to have such a high quesstimate and then for it to turn out so embarassingly wrong for them. 

Nothing cold on offer in the foreseeable. The ecm doing its usual tease which means zilch at day 10.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

They could not have been more wrong in their Autumn  temp forecast 60% probability of above average temps. Then during their mid Autumn update they increase the likelyhood of a above normal Autumn temp wise to 60 - 80%. almost unheard of to have such a high quesstimate and then for it to turn out so embarassingly wrong for them. 

Nothing cold on offer in the foreseeable. The ecm doing its usual tease which means zilch at day 10.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

September did see some notably warm weather, especially the third week of the month. However, October did not deliver any particularly warm or even especially mild days in my neck of the woods, unlike a number of recent Octobers.

November so far has been anything but mild here.

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