Wouldn’t take that much to see a bitter Arctic Northerly develop as we head to December.



Folk in Nothern Scotland need to keep a watchful eye,as conditions can become very severe up there.febuary 1955 springs to mind.

Some interesting model watching coming up.

Maybe, maybe just maybe a hint of significant cold appearing in the start of December. Probably only a 20% chance at this stage but worth keeping an eye on . Some hope for Coldies.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Maybe not so much 'significant' - but nonetheless it does look as though something may be trying to brew..

I suppose it depends on what peoples definition of 'significant' are but we'd all take a little Northerly at the back end of next week even if it toppled over after a few days. 

 

The significant cold has my patience.. for now. :P 

 Our good friend -5 850's flirt with the country around Friday/Saturday next week. 

12z certainly keeping the interest up 

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Wouldn’t take that much to see a bitter Arctic Northerly develop as we head to December.



Folk in Nothern Scotland need to keep a watchful eye,as conditions can become very severe up there.febuary 1955 springs to mind.

Some interesting model watching coming up.

I was thinking more like November/December 2010.

 

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12z certainly keeping the interest up 

Struggling to see any real interest with more wind and rain for us southern contingency - as if we haven't had enough of all that so far this Autumn. Unless if that does float your boat. 

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Struggling to see any real interest with more wind and rain for us southern contingency - as if we haven't had enough of all that so far this Autumn. Unless if that does float your boat. 

 

All JFF but something of interest:

 

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I was thinking more like November/December 2010.

 

I was certainly thinking November 2010 when I saw the minus 3.5c temp this morning!  This is what we need to cool the ground in readiness for some winter weather!  We’ve had more early frosts here than usual this year already. 

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This week's LP is a flabby affair and slowly drifts off SE, gone by Sun 24th. Then GFS has an increasingly intense series of depressions running across  N of Scotland  up to Norway, with westerlies penetrating well into Siberia by Thu 28th. That LP gives us a back edge northerly on the Fri but the westerlies resume. The precipitation pattern in week 2 says it all http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4

ECM rather different - the westerlies are not so strong and the Atlantic low sticks around NW Britain and doesn't link up with the LP over N Norway, so there's a ridge of HP around the Baltic on the 28th and southerlies not northerlies.

No trace of the HP over the S which was there at the end of yesterday's GFS run

Ens show rain generally from the 23rd, more and a bit earlier in the S, while temps have a brief bit of warmth around 25th (as yesterday), then a big scrmable either side of the seasonal average.

Keep watching as change is in the air, but I'd hold off on the expectation of any long deep cold

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All JFF but something of interest:

 

 

A Stratospheric warming and displacement has already commenced and will gather strength in the coming days. Whilst increasing our chances of some decent weather, the usual caveats apply - weakening and displacing the PV provides conditions under which we can get decent winter weather, but it all depends on how the displacement plays out in the Trop - we can always end up on the wrong side of any meridional flow which results as a consequence. Also, there is a time lag of a few weeks usually, before the disruption in the strat propagates down to the Trop, something itself which is never guaranteed to occur.

 

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On the contrary, 15-17c in December would feel lovely. If we can't go cold, then early spring will do just fine. 

 

Here here!  Bring it on. I only just put my bikini away too.

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Some stark changes already on the 12z at 120hrs

6z 

www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_120_1.png

12z

www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_120_1.png

 

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Quite a different 12z with weaker lows further south, still getting milder but subtle differences

This chart looks a mess at 201hrs. Pattern looks disorganised.

www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_201_1.png

Inter run changes suggest this all remains volatile and could go either way. People have often said when you start seeing charts like that the models don't have a clue

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If the nose of high can be cut off from getting into Europe then it will change the whole dynamic
www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_108_1.png

If the nose of high can be cut off from getting into Europe then it will change the whole dynamic
www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_108_1.png

the sliding low theme- wouldn't bet against it to be honest. 

Struggling to see any real interest with more wind and rain for us southern contingency - as if we haven't had enough of all that so far this Autumn. Unless if that does float your boat. 

Struggling to see anything of interest up here either, at least in the reliable timeframe. It looks horrific, in fact, with the possibility of a week with little or no sun and yet more rain which will be focussed on yet another vile washout weekend. Models suggest another 40mm or so possible before the end of the month which would get it close to November 2010, the wettest in my records. Of course a significant proportion of the total in 2010 fell as snow whereas in this repulsive month it has all been rain.

Odds on for a milder than average month too courtesy of the SE’ly horror show that awaits. With the lack of cold nights so far, to match the unpleasant cold days, and the temperature unlikely to drop below 5C after today, the mean minimum temperature could well end up the fourth highest in my 15 years of records behind the atrocities of 2011, 2014 and 2018 

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Struggling to see anything of interest up here either, at least in the reliable timeframe. It looks horrific, in fact, with the possibility of a week with little or no sun and yet more rain which will be focussed on yet another vile washout weekend. Models suggest another 40mm or so possible before the end of the month which would get it close to November 2010, the wettest in my records. Of course a significant proportion of the total in 2010 fell as snow whereas in this repulsive month it has all been rain.

Odds on for a milder than average month too courtesy of the SE’ly horror show that awaits. With the lack of cold nights so far, to match the unpleasant cold days, and the temperature unlikely to drop below 5C after today, the mean minimum temperature could well end up the fourth highest in my 15 years of records behind the atrocities of 2011, 2014 and 2018 

Sounds as though you've had a milder November overall than has been the case in my neck of the woods. I think it will take a notable and sustained warm-up now to get this month into even close to average territory for my location, let alone milder than average.

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If the nose of high can be cut off from getting into Europe then it will change the whole dynamic
www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_108_1.png

That looks potentially very cold.

 

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Sounds as though you've had a milder November overall than has been the case in my neck of the woods. I think it will take a notable and sustained warm-up now to get this month into even close to average territory for my location, let alone milder than average.

On the contrary, it has generally been cold this November, more so than most that I can recall up here.

Interesting chart towards end of GFS - could get cold