and so it begins,,,,, Shannon entropy,,,, SSW,,,,,trop disconnection,,,,,, it’s all going to get mentioned over the next few weeks. If the SSW appears then expect some wrist slitting if the HP sets up shop anywhere but to affect our shores- which given the law of sod and the miserable UK climate is a likely outcome. 

Don't forget 'teleconnections'....

Weak solar, reduced Arctic sea ice, ENSO......

 

Don't forget 'teleconnections'....

Weak solar, reduced Arctic sea ice, ENSO......

you know it Gandalf- all the old gems will come out. However at least we have some interest in this late Autumn/ early winter period, more so in my humble opinion than the last couple of years. 

 

you know it Gandalf- all the old gems will come out. However at least we have some interest in this late Autumn/ early winter period, more so in my humble opinion than the last couple of years. 

And I assume someone will 'call' Winter Over at some stage before New Year.

 

 

And I assume someone will 'call' Winter Over at some stage before New Year.

think that’s already been done

 

 

think that’s already been done

Really??!  Winter's ended before I migrated back to the Forum.  Typical.

waits patiently with her TWO forum Winter Bingo Card...

Won't be long before I can call BINGO!

In view of the posts above re SW/SSW, a question I would ask here is was there any SW or SSW event in the lead-up to the freezes which commenced just after mid-December 2009 and late November 2010?

 

ECM and GFS now both showing Strat warming occurring from 29th November. Looking more likely now than when only GFS was in the game.

Very unusual at this time of year and likely to have significant effects down the line. What happens if we get blizzards on 12th December?

It might be an idea for people to spend some cash on some sledges or a pair of skis, Maunder.

Eyes down for the 12z this is the most crucial run of the season so far.

Nice eye candy but little more at that range. Worth watching though, for three or four hours anyway!

LOL, yes.  By the time you've worked through every perturbation and compared with other model output it's probably pushing six hours and then the next set of runs are appearing....

 

LOL, yes.  By the time you've worked through every perturbation and compared with other model output it's probably pushing six hours and then the next set of runs are appearing....

haha, this is so true 

 

It might be an idea for people to spend some cash on some sledges or a pair of skis, Maunder.

That would be a jinx David. I am going to wait until we have lying snow before getting the sledge runners oiled.

Problem with owning a sledge in this country, is that it gets so little use.

In view of the posts above re SW/SSW, a question I would ask here is was there any SW or SSW event in the lead-up to the freezes which commenced just after mid-December 2009 and late November 2010?

Not sure about any SSW then, but one linking factor with today is: deep solar minimum!

In view of the posts above re SW/SSW, a question I would ask here is was there any SW or SSW event in the lead-up to the freezes which commenced just after mid-December 2009 and late November 2010?

2009/10 - Yes, a SSW was involved.

2010 was a split PV - can't seem to find much evidence on a SSW apart from Paul Hudson's blog:

"A week before the onset of severe cold that begun at the end of November 2010, stratospheric warming was observed, which led to a forecast which successfully included a risk of cold conditions developing across the UK."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/2012/10/a-step-forward-in-forecasting.shtml

Which sounds a bit odd - "A week before..."?

 

2009/10 - Yes, a SSW was involved.

2010 was a split PV - can't seem to find much evidence on a SSW apart from Paul Hudson's blog:

"A week before the onset of severe cold that begun at the end of November 2010, stratospheric warming was observed, which led to a forecast which successfully included a risk of cold conditions developing across the UK."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/2012/10/a-step-forward-in-forecasting.shtml

Which sounds a bit odd - "A week before..."?

 

Can / does a SSW have an affect on our weather that quickly? I thought it took weeks to 'transfer'

 

 

Can / does a SSW have an affect on our weather that quickly? I thought it took weeks to 'transfer'

Yes, I thought it sounded suspect for the same reason.

However looking at the MetO long range forecasts I posted earlier, it was clear that something was afoot going back to October 2010, with talk of "well below average temperatures" in mid-November (although the timing was a bit out), so they could clearly identify some mechanism at work - whether that was a SSW or not, I don't know. 

This chart screams:

www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_225_1.png

I don't have a clue

One for the bin. 

GFS goes from 

www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_231_1.png

to this

www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_276_1.png

Its far to progressive for my liking. But could still be a trend. All to play for still

 

 

Can / does a SSW have an affect on our weather that quickly? I thought it took weeks to 'transfer'

When a SSW occurs you can have a QTR (quick trop response). This usually occurs a few days to a week after the SSW.