On the contrary, it has generally been cold this November, more so than most that I can recall up here.

Yeah, I had guessed that your area will have had similar weather and temperatures recently to what my part of the country has experienced, bowser.

Some interesting charts towards the end of the GFS 18z op.

 

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Two models going for a SSW and reversal of zonal winds at 10hpa in December where as others are weakening it and by quite a fair bit, when the zonal winds and PV should be strengthening not weakening!!

ALSO - YET again on the 18z run: - it's a continuing theme of a warming originating over Siberia and into Arctic:

Same rules apply as it's a long way out however i do see the warming at 10hpa occurring each run now!? Will this trend continue?

It's still only November and we never see a SW in November let alone a SSW. Usually we have to wait until February. Last Boxing day towards NYE was an exception though but still to have a SW or SSW so early is so rare: 

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www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPNH00_384_1.png

Way off but best chart I have seen so far

In GFS, the current LP moves off S-wards on Sat, then LP over the Atlantic moving NE to Norway for the following week, deepest and closest on Thu 28th. For the week after that the HP over the south for Mon 2nd/Tue 3rd has been re-instated from a couple of days back though it doesn't last. By contrast, yesterday's deep depression over N Norway with back edge cold air on a N-ly wind has  gone. EDIT; but that was GFS 00z. Some runs from the 06z bring the northerlies back - see Heavy Weather's posts below. Instability rules OK!

The jet stream looks very unstable and strong, mostly to the south of the UK but with loops to the S and branches to the N, so I don't think distant predictions are reliable at the moment.

ECM similar though next week's LP comes in a bit sooner and closer to UK, and there's just a hint of a northerly at the end of the run.

Ens temps a little above normal 23rd - 27th, then the usual scramble which however seems to be edging just a little cooler. Rain generally from 25th, and in some places especially the S  from the 23rd

 

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Two models going for a SSW and reversal of zonal winds at 10hpa in December where as others are weakening it and by quite a fair bit, when the zonal winds and PV should be strengthening not weakening!!

ALSO - YET again on the 18z run: - it's a continuing theme of a warming originating over Siberia and into Arctic:

Same rules apply as it's a long way out however i do see the warming at 10hpa occurring each run now!? Will this trend continue?

It's still only November and we never see a SW in November let alone a SSW. Usually we have to wait until February. Last Boxing day towards NYE was an exception though but still to have a SW or SSW so early is so rare: 

 

ECM and GFS now both showing Strat warming occurring from 29th November. Looking more likely now than when only GFS was in the game.

Very unusual at this time of year and likely to have significant effects down the line. What happens if we get blizzards on 12th December?

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ECM and GFS now both showing Strat warming occurring from 29th November. Looking more likely now than when only GFS was in the game.

Very unusual at this time of year and likely to have significant effects down the line. What happens if we get blizzards on 12th December?

if we get blizzards no change, they will rely on the spirit of the people to vote. Why a winter election is a bad idea.

 

ECM and GFS now both showing Strat warming occurring from 29th November. Looking more likely now than when only GFS was in the game.

Very unusual at this time of year and likely to have significant effects down the line. What happens if we get blizzards on 12th December?

A white polling day!! Would be memorable!!?

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www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPNH00_384_1.png

Way off but best chart I have seen so far

 

Good but that bubble of HP is a little too far north over norther Siberia and a long way off - we just have zonal wet weather!?

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if we get blizzards no change, they will rely on the spirit of the people to vote. Why a winter election is a bad idea.

Without getting into politics too much, perhaps if the weather stopped the, er, older voters from venturing out it might have an effect on the result. 

 

Certainly lots of scatter in the second half of the 00Z, and the 06Z doesn't look very mild so far.

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I was thinking more like November/December 2010.

 

With the 9th anniversary of November 30th 2010 coming up, and with recollection that some were talking about how far ahead the MetO longer range forecasts were picking up a likely cold spell back then, I thought it worthwhile to look at 3 of those MetOffice text forecasts from November 2010 (3 was all I could capture, unfortunately):

 

From 12th October 2010:

UK Outlook for Wednesday 27 Oct 2010 to Wednesday 10 Nov 2010:

Generally changeable at first, especially in the north, with the best of any drier, brighter weather in the south and southwest. As the period evolves, the best brightness is expected to spread across the west of the country, with above average sunshine here. By contrast the east should see nearer normal values. In terms of rainfall, the north of the country is expected to be drier than would be typical for autumn, with perhaps higher rainfall towards the southeast. Both minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to be well below average for the time of year, with overnight frost likely.

Updated: 1215 on Tue 12 Oct 2010

 

From 10th November 2010:

 

UK Outlook for Monday 15 Nov 2010 to Wednesday 24 Nov 2010:

It is likely to stay unsettled and windy with showers or longer spells of rain for most of the UK. The rain most persistent and heavy across northwestern parts at first, then elsewhere during the course of the first week. Occasional snow is likely over the higher ground of Scotland and perhaps Northern England. Drier and brighter interludes can also be expected, these most likely in the south and east. Later in the period there is a chance of drier and more settled weather in the south of the UK, but elsewhere it is likely to remain unsettled and cold with showers, still wintry in the north. Temperatures generally near or below average across the UK, with a risk of overnight frost on most nights under any clear skies.

Updated: 1149 on Wed 10 Nov 2010

UK Outlook for Thursday 25 Nov 2010 to Thursday 9 Dec 2010:

There is a trend for slightly more settled, but colder weather to become established across much of the UK. Precipitation should be mostly below average, especially in the west, with the driest and brightest weather expected here. Northeasterly winds could bring wintry showers into eastern areas at times. Temperatures are likely to be below average across much of the country, with an increased risk of overnight frosts.

Updated: 1154 on Wed 10 Nov 2010

 

(Sadly I couldn't find any between 10th November and the 21st:)

 

UK Outlook for Friday 26 Nov 2010 to Sunday 5 Dec 2010:

The period will begin cold or very cold with overnight frost. Wintry showers will affect northern and eastern areas, particularly close to the coast but these will extend inland at times. These showers are likely to fall as snow even at lower levels and could give significant accumulations in places. Best of any brighter weather is likely in the west. The cold or very cold conditions are likely to continue into the first week of December, with widespread overnight frost and the risk of icy surfaces and further snowfall, particularly in eastern parts. However, there is then also a chance that southern and southwestern areas may turn a little less cold but also more unsettled as rain, sleet and snow tries to push up from the south.

Updated: 1123 on Sun 21 Nov 2010

 

UK Outlook for Monday 6 Dec 2010 to Monday 20 Dec 2010:

The cold or very cold conditions are likely to continue, with precipitation amounts generally close to average, giving the risk of sleet and snow at times in many areas. However, parts of the north and west of the country may be drier than normal. Sunshine amounts are likely to be generally above average, although some southeastern parts may see more in the way of cloud. Temperatures are likely to continue to be below or well below average, with widespread overnight frost, locally severe. There is a small chance of it turning less cold at times, particularly for southern and southwestern parts, but still with the risk of further rain, sleet and snow here.

Updated: 1154 on Sun 21 Nov 2010

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Looking through the 6z suite its very clear now there will be a significant build up of cold to our north. Will the starts align though.

I do think we will see a good number of the runs showing big dippers.

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6z GFS is certainly another interesting run. Something seems afoot, but I doubt we will get any clear signals for at least another week. The possible early SSW is, I daresay, playing havoc with the models, but I personally would take the winter seasonal models with the largest pinch of salt right now. Something *may* be brewing for early to mid December, but as ever in this country, there will be lots of peaks and troughs in the coming week or so.

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6Z finishes on a similar theme with high pressure to the northwest letting some fairly cold air flood over the UK, bringing snow to the northern half of the country. The NH view shows a chunk of the PV seems to have separated off over Canada by the end of the run but no real solid blocking where we want it.

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Some highlights if cold is your thing:

P5

www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSP06EU06_294_1.png

P6

www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSP07EU06_294_1.png

P18

www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSP18EU06_282_1.png

P20

www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSP20EU06_276_1.png

 

I am really quite shocked at the number that want to build heights over Greenland. This will sow nicely on the postage stamps. We not talking at the end of the runs either. There is a battle developing. I would say best suite run of the season so far.

 

 

 

 

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I have seen worse averages at 204hrs

www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSAVGEU06_204_1.png

 

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Looking at the spaghetti plots, November 29/30 seems to be the crucial point of divergence, with roughly equal numbers of significantly cold and significantly mild runs and everything in between.

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Long way forward, but click on the 384 chart and that cold pool is very close, whole of country is in sub 528 dam air, and parts of Scotland sub 516

https://meteolo.com/europa/gfs/gfs-europa#tabs 

the final chart with the precipitation is unlikely to be accurate at that range, but I find it quite amusing that the 0m freezing level line has a kink to include the Exeter area

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Although there is a HUGE scatter, today's 6Z run is the 1st to touch -10C at 850hpa for my local area. A step in the right direction.

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Looking at the spaghetti plots, November 29/30 seems to be the crucial point of divergence, with roughly equal numbers of significantly cold and significantly mild runs and everything in between.

and so it begins,,,,, Shannon entropy,,,, SSW,,,,,trop disconnection,,,,,, it’s all going to get mentioned over the next few weeks. If the SSW appears then expect some wrist slitting if the HP sets up shop anywhere but to affect our shores- which given the law of sod and the miserable UK climate is a likely outcome. 

Looking at the spaghetti plots, November 29/30 seems to be the crucial point of divergence, with roughly equal numbers of significantly cold and significantly mild runs and everything in between.

There's been so little consistency in the output beyond day 5-6 that it's still difficult to have much confidence.  The one thing that does keep recurring is a northerly outbreak of varying degrees of intensity and duration and some form of mid-Atlantic upper ridge - but the routes to get there have been variable.  I think at this point there's still too much mobility in the pattern to have any confidence in more than a passing cold snap.

Yesterday's ECM 12z ensemble was a complete mess from quite early on but with a small cluster of colder runs.  The overnight 00z has built on the 12z with a more more noticeable cold cluster but still a lot of scatter - but the colder options have dragged down the mean to below average for the start of winter.

 

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