JACKO4EVER
21 November 2019 08:24:46
More long term confusion this morning, in the meantime turning wet in places over the weekend. I wouldn’t trust anything beyond 4 days at the moment- and the LP this weekend is still causing a headache in its positioning.
tallyho_83
21 November 2019 09:03:51

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 

The 0z doesn’t make me laugh. It somehow managed to build intense cold directly to our north and then finds a way to make sure it misses us and heads all the way to Eastern Europe and you guessed it...Greece.

Still, it’s one run and the trend of building heights towards Greenland remains.


Yes - you have to laugh how it's bitterly cold to our west over eastern Seaboard/ Canada and N. Atlantic and (just)to our east on other side of North sea over Scandinavia and continental and the UK is going pizza express slice! Hate to use this term but it's true:


Only one run - but does show cold air arriving end of November. - just doesn't know where. I wonder what the 06z run shiows.



 


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Heavy Weather 2013
21 November 2019 09:15:38

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


 


Yes - you have to laugh how it's bitterly cold to our west over eastern Seaboard/ Canada and N. Atlantic and (just)to our east on other side of North sea over Scandinavia and continental and the UK is going pizza express slice! Hate to use this term but it's true:


Only one run - but does show cold air arriving end of November. - just doesn't know where. I wonder what the 06z run shiows.



 



The Pizza Slice is back and its a very valid description I must admit


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Heavy Weather 2013
21 November 2019 11:41:03

This low 'zipper low' is appearing regularly and can be seen in many of the ensembles.


www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSP12EU06_0_2.png


Its one to watch - I suspect its track and development could be pivitol on the outcome in the next week or so.


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Heavy Weather 2013
21 November 2019 11:47:20

I have to say looking through the 06z a number of things stand out:


- We are heading into a very volatile period, with rapid low pressure development. Temperature contrasts look big.


- Signal for progressively colder N/NW outbreaks and some slider lows.


- Key time point remains around the 29 November


Summary


Some places are going to be very wet or very white. An exciting few weeks ahead.


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Shropshire
21 November 2019 11:59:32

For me we are heading for a set-up of High pressure close to the South for early December, especially if the synoptics of heights over Greenland failing to block the Atlantic plays out before that.


 


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nsrobins
21 November 2019 12:23:02

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


For me we are heading for a set-up of High pressure close to the South for early December, especially if the synoptics of heights over Greenland failing to block the Atlantic plays out before that.


 



Cut and paste.


A more neutral view would be one of typical uncertainty and the ENS spread alone suggests your forecast is one of many options.


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
Shropshire
21 November 2019 12:27:36

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


 


Cut and paste.


A more neutral view would be one of typical uncertainty and the ENS spread alone suggests your forecast is one of many options.



The one thng I'm seeing in response to the upstream pattern is height rises to the South, and possibly by then we have the Strat becoming more unfavourable - potentially a very mild mid to late December such as 1988.


 


 


From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
fairweather
21 November 2019 13:01:17

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


 


Yes - you have to laugh how it's bitterly cold to our west over eastern Seaboard/ Canada and N. Atlantic and (just)to our east on other side of North sea over Scandinavia and continental and the UK is going pizza express slice! Hate to use this term but it's true:


Only one run - but does show cold air arriving end of November. - just doesn't know where. I wonder what the 06z run shiows.



 



Well today's pizza slice is bringing temps of 4C and a strong ESE to the corner of the S.E at the time of day of the max temp !


S.Essex, 42m ASL
Brian Gaze
21 November 2019 13:14:34
Still too close to call IMO. An 89 on steroids isn't out of the question. Neither is a colder outcome.
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Gandalf The White
21 November 2019 13:19:50

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 


 


The one thng I'm seeing in response to the upstream pattern is height rises to the South, and possibly by then we have the Strat becoming more unfavourable - potentially a very mild mid to late December such as 1988.


 


 



What I'm seeing is more than the usual uncertainty and no obvious long wave pattern for either mild or cold.


The height rises to the south on recent runs have been a function of the behaviour of the deep low pressure taking a southerly track and then losing its way, driving WAA ahead of it and pulling surface high pressure with it.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


doctormog
21 November 2019 13:21:59

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


 


Cut and paste.


A more neutral view would be one of typical uncertainty and the ENS spread alone suggests your forecast is one of many options.




Agreed. Despite assertions, given the uncertainty, it is far too early to have any confidence re. December's weather at this stage.


LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
21 November 2019 14:15:38

.


There does not look like much in the way of any notable cold conditions but day 7-8 are cold for Scotland and N England.


Changeable with both some dry and fine weather, and some wet rainy windy or breezy but showery conditions.


The SSW is not able to get rid of the UK side of the Polar Vortex. We are more directly influenced by winds from the SW.


I am fine with this setup.


Quite a lot of Amplification of the Jetstream, and NE Europe is looking wet and windy but in 7-9 days time it could be cold and wintry sometimes for NE Europe.


.


Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
picturesareme
21 November 2019 14:26:55

Originally Posted by: fairweather 


 


Well today's pizza slice is bringing temps of 4C and a strong ESE to the corner of the S.E at the time of day of the max temp !



10C down here in the south and nothing lower then 7C in past 24 hours... very much average kind of late November gloom.

LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
21 November 2019 14:28:35

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


 


What I'm seeing is more than the usual uncertainty and no obvious long wave pattern for either mild or cold.


The height rises to the south on recent runs have been a function of the behaviour of the deep low pressure taking a southerly track and then losing its way, driving WAA ahead of it and pulling surface high pressure with it.



 


Yeah, it is this situation that will by Tomorrow bring about milder - a few degrees above normal temperatures- mild sectors with SW winds, the high pressure ridging, but some days we will get wet and windy weather followed by another day of wet and windy.


.


4.3 degrees C in Wanstead Park


Dewpoint 2.3 degrees C.


Wind 1.1 mph from the West.


Pressure 1010.2 hPa


Dewpoint 2.3 degrees C.


It is 2 degrees colder that forecasted yesterday evening. Cold air won today.


 


Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
picturesareme
21 November 2019 14:39:23

Originally Posted by: LA2B MeridFlowEuro09 


 


 


Yeah, it is this situation that will by Tomorrow bring about milder - a few degrees above normal temperatures- mild sectors with SW winds, the high pressure ridging, but some days we will get wet and windy weather followed by another day of wet and windy.


.


 



There will also potentially be an injection of tropical warmth from the remnants of a hurricane over our way early next week. Would this not have an effect on the models?

Brian Gaze
21 November 2019 15:10:07

Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 


 


The Pizza Slice is back and its a very valid description I must admit



The Guardian credited me with "continental blowtorch" a few years ago, but I think pioneering the use of "pizza slice" could be my real legacy. cool


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
doctormog
21 November 2019 15:35:56

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


The Guardian credited me with "continental blowtorch" a few years ago, but I think pioneering the use of "pizza slice" could be my real legacy. cool



Yes, that would take some topping.


snow_dann
21 November 2019 15:40:52

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


 


Yes, that would take some topping.



I understood this reference! 

Gandalf The White
21 November 2019 16:14:31

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


 


Yes, that would take some topping.



That’s definitely one to take away...


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


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