This week's LP is a flabby affair and slowly drifts off SE, gone by Sun 24th. Then GFS has an increasingly intense series of depressions running across N of Scotland up to Norway, with westerlies penetrating well into Siberia by Thu 28th. That LP gives us a back edge northerly on the Fri but the westerlies resume. The precipitation pattern in week 2 says it all http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4
ECM rather different - the westerlies are not so strong and the Atlantic low sticks around NW Britain and doesn't link up with the LP over N Norway, so there's a ridge of HP around the Baltic on the 28th and southerlies not northerlies.
No trace of the HP over the S which was there at the end of yesterday's GFS run
Ens show rain generally from the 23rd, more and a bit earlier in the S, while temps have a brief bit of warmth around 25th (as yesterday), then a big scrmable either side of the seasonal average.
Keep watching as change is in the air, but I'd hold off on the expectation of any long deep cold
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl