I doubt this put enough sulphate aerosol in the stratosphere to cause significant cooling and hence a stronger stratospheric vortex. This usually needs strong tropical eruptions

Indeed, noticed how the EURO4 is being quite bullish about wind strength for tomorrow while GFS is being more reserved, usually it's the other way around with the models when it comes to predicting mean winds in the close range forecast. A true test for the models with Oct '87 still fresh to mind but hopefully it won't be a repeat of that.

And the recent volcanic eruptions are just mere bottom burps compared to Mount St Helens in 1981.

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ICON 6z going for 90mph gusts in the Channel tomorrow.

 

GFS 6z closer to 60mph:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=06&charthour=18&chartname=windvector_gust&chartregion=uk&charttag=Wind%20gust

 

HIRLAM 6z mean wind speeds around 50mph, so I'd expect gusts to be significantly higher:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/hirlam/06_27_ukwind.png?cb=0111201906

 

 

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Week two looks chilly on the GFS06z. Maybe signs towards the end that we start to see a coupling between the strat and trop vortex?

Wouldn't be a surprise of course at this time of year so I'll take any cold/cool weather on offer before then.

https://stratobserve.com/plots/20191031/tseries/anoms/gfs_nh-u60_20191031.png

You can clearly see the disconnect between troposphere and stratosphere by looking at the mean zonal wind anomaly chart above. How long this will go on for who knows. The two volcanic eruptions this year reached the strat. Spaceweather.com for several months have been reporting on this with purple sunsets caused  by volcanic aerosols in the atmosphere across the globe. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_HGT_ANOM_ALL_NH_2019.png

GPH anomaly chart from cpc stratosphere monitoring site shows the elevated heights throughout the year in the northern hemisphere. This looks set to continue for a while yet.

Unfortunately, GFS is showing the Strat/Trop disconnect disappearing by mid-month with a strong PV getting organised (in line with the LRFs).

It would be nice to go back to some of the classic winters and see what was happening to the curse of the cursed PV back then - 1981-82 would be a good case study.

 

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On the other hand a cold and cyclonic November is often considered as a tick next to the cold winter box. Of course we don't know how November will play out and Mr PSW could come back in the blink of an eyelid.

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November arrives marking the start (for the south at least) of a seemingly tiresome 4 month period of extended autumn.

A cool and wet signature from the GEFS again today to set the ball rolling.

I'm sure many of us here would welcome a mild and dry winter now after the past few weeks.

A nice and easy winter akin to 1992/93 would be nice IMO. 

 

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2 x 1 on the snow row, for Londond in November! Not that I think for one second that's obviously going to happen but still. don't believe I have seen that before, this early. But then I've been told my memory isn't what it used to be 

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Do I sense a small amount of reverse psychology in this post.

In all seriousness though, I remember how fed up you were with the 2018/19 offerings.

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Something like February 1998, 2008 or 2019 would be nice.

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I remember the winter of '08-09 as I was halfway through a 365 photography mission and there were a lot of lovely hazy light in the Winter/early Spring season. On the other hand, Nov 2010 was very wet and unsettled and we can all remember what happened next. But of course, no two years are ever exactly alike with our mid-latitude climate.

Back on topic, the 12z GFS as well as the ECM are too painful to look at for too long, even if most of it are in the form of "cold" cyclonic activity. Much rather have a cold high being close to us.  

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Yes, cool and unsettled (very unsettled at times) seems to sum up the current outlook.

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If this system is as bad as that map and the BBC's forecast is suggesting, then why hasn't it been named? Seems to meet the criteria with winds like that!

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK18_15_19.png 

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Impressive Scandi high on GFS, lots of variety on high pressure influence but interesting to see

Another day, another take on the pressure pattern.

GFS which yesterday was keen on a Scandi high with ridge to UK has now put establishment of HP in Scandi back a few days (to ca 13th) and even then little sign of a ridge in this direction. Instead we continue through this coming week and into the next with LP centres, nothing very deep, moving across Britain, though later on (again, ca 13th) they tend to stall and decay in situ. This allows more of a S flow and GEFS reflects this with most runs going from slightly below to slightly above average temps. Rainfall predictions on GFS show some rain everywhere and continuing for the forecast period.

ECM (yesterday's 12z) is stiil with the Scandi high and ridging at the end of its run, around the 11th.

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Both GFS and ECM are coming up with a similar idea of HP ridging in from both SW and NE thus putting the UK under a slack no-man's land set up by around the 11th Nov. Until then we still have to put up with LP rattling in from the Atlantic one after the other, although the saving grace is they appear to be as decaying features so the outlook for next week may be classed as "changeable" rather than "unsettled". 

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Top wind speed was 109.4mph!! At the needles on the IOW. 

Probably not named as the winds were largely coastal and not in the important areas like London, Birmingham, or Manchester.

Just wanted to share this from weather is cool - the forecast for strength of zonal winds @ 10hpa:

Seems interesting!? Could all change of course but for now at least - all models showing a weakened zonal flow into December and some even going into reverse!?

If only....?

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Yet here in the East Midlands, it’s been flat calm with not a bit of breeze!

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GFS has a different take on a blocking high this morning, sbecoming prminent over Scandi from the 7th but only for a week, and then retreating into Russia where it eventually reaches 1050mb. Both temp and precip below normal over Scandi for the coming week http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4 though the Baltic could get a lot of snow later on.

Meanwhile, back in the UK, the blocking directs a series of not very deep depressions across the UK from NW to SE (though with the caveat that yesterday's storm was forecast not very deep at one stage) and eventually (from 13th) a bit deeper but stalling them off the W of Ireland.

ECM has a similar procession of depressions but without the benefit of a Scandi high until ca 12th when it emerges with a stong ridge to a mid-Atlantic high. ECM and GFS - both today's 0z - are dramatically different for the 13th

GEFS continues generally unsettled and on the cold side, though several runs are back to average temps or above later on.

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Thursday evening snow depths around Ross on Wye (26cm) a bit hard to believe in the GFS:

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I'll take that!

It wouldn't be the first time that I've seen snow here in  November, in fact it's snowed here in each of the last 5 Novembers however I'd be very surprised to get anything like that amount if any snow at all.

The tops of the Malverns might well see a flake or two.

 

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Would be great if this pattern kept repeating would definitely be a case of it could snow anywhere especially Dec and jan.