One thing that I noticed on this morning's GEFS is that there is less scatter than usual among the members for the whole forecast period covered (and a great deal less than on some GEFS predictions).

First really wintry GFS run of the season (I think). Disruptive snow in parts of the UK during the middle third of November if it verified. (Looks unlikely at this stage) https://t.co/FNCCzfKawt pic.twitter.com/VtUNgsKu6t

— TheWeatherOutlook (@TWOweather) November 3, 2019

Yes it is interesting to get the blocking in these places so early on!? Hope this can be a continuing trend!?

Both GFS OP and Control has us in a northerly on 14th Nov - but this has to be an outliar!? Many places not getting above freezing all day!? Typical as i shall be heading off to Budapest for birthday - where at the mom it looks balmy with more chance of getting a white birthday here ha!?

All JFF as it's one model and one run but something to keep an eye on?

Control: the Uppers with -10 @ 850hpa knocking on northern Scotland:

GFS OP

A cold outliar as expected looking at the ensembles - but many others are below norm anyway:

GFS 6z op and control both notably cold at times.

ECM looks a shocker with low pressures further south than normal and a lot of rain

An unrelenting procession of depressions for some time to come, with a notably deeper one around the 11th(ECM) or 12th(GFS). After that these two models diverge, GFS continuing the unsettled theme, but ECM developing a large HP cell mid-Atlantic linking with a less well defined HP over Scandi. The latter is supported by the BBC look ahead which suggested its earlier (by a few days) development.

Varous posters have been excited about blocking but I don't buy it. Certainly HP to the north persists, but it seems to me 'faute de mieux'. it's just that all the depressions are directed elsewhere, and there's no well-defined cell until 13th (ECM, mid-Atlantic) or beyond the Urals (GFS).

Ensembles showing fair agreement with each other, generally cold and wet at first, slowly relenting in about 10 days' time, the far NW getting off more lightly than it normally does at the start of the period.

Also, there are early indications that the Strat Vortex is going to be warmed and diminished in the coming weeks, which can only enhance the possibilities of northern blocking. From what I gather, this is not a SSW, but a virtuous feedback from the Trop into the Strat caused by anomalous northern blocking.

The weather is a complex beast - usually we get a zonal reinforcing mechanism which knocks our hopes of a decent winter into a cocked hat, but there must be occasions when the reinforcing is the other way, otherwise how could we ever get our infrequent classic winters?

The Southern Hemisphere has just seen one of its strongest sudden stratospheric warmings on record. It started in Late August and propagated down into the Troposphere over the past few weeks. Not sure what if any impacts there will be in the Northern hemisphere, but it's causing some real extremes of cool and heat here in Perth this Spring. 

Maybe it was the kind of feedback from the trop into the strat as a result of northern blocking that led to the severe cold spells seen in both winter 2009/10 and December 2010, Maunder. I could be wrong, but I don't think either was a direct result of a SSW event.

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Well, I think any chance of colder weather is going to affect first in Scotland and N. Ireland later this Week, and again by Monday to Tuesday after this coming Week's end.

Rain and Low Pressure, looks set to continue for the next two weeks.

GFS, UKMO and ICON models look at 12z today looks like this.

Less chilly in Central and South UK.

So maybe as we get to about November the 20th, there could be a chance of a Scandinavian high that could maybe not sure though as I can see on GFS operational 12z run today.

Hmm.

Regular reviews of the forecast is important.

But it is we should continue to look to the West and Northwest, for our weather for the next 2 weeks..

It’s just the worst synoptics imaginable bringing day after day of unmitgated horror.

Could end up even worse than December 2002 – the most revolting month of my lifetime. Then we had a three day frosty spell just after mid-month that brought nearly all of the month’s pitiful sunshine total. Other than that there were only two dry days and five days that recorded any sunshine. This month is heading in exactly the same direction but without any sign of even a brief high pressure interlude.

I have seriously never seen such dire model output in all the years I’ve been viewing it

After login issues its good to be back on ( Thanks Brian )

I am slightly optimistic looking at the charts , some blocking is certainly on offer , but far too early to 'that' excited 

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There appears to be some potential interesting weather for the 10 days of mid-November, we have Thursday being affected by Low Pressure, that departs on Friday 8th Nov., then on Saturday we have Shortwave spread across UK- bringing a spell of rain then cool with heavy blustery showers.

By Sunday the 10th and Monday the 11th November, the UK looks like being affected by further Deep Low pressure directed SE from the NW Atlantic with Blocking over Iceland and Greenland and maybe also over Norway and North Sea as well.

It looks like bringing heavy rain then heavy blustery showers and mild air, to the UK.

Then at around that timeframe the Models e.g., ICON and ECMWF have two active PV Low's merging over NE USA and Newfoundland that tell me that if we get blocking in Western North Atlantic and blocking in Greenland and North Atlantic to our NW and North there could be a interesting trend and pattern developing possibly from that time point forwards hmm.

Will the GFS learn from ICON, UKMO and ECMWF- the UKMO looks very windy and wet on Thursday this week as well.

The GFS downgrades the Low Pressure over the UK on Saturday and Sunday November 9th and 10th.

But ICON and ECMWF show that Deep Low over the UK on Sunday to Tuesday Nov. 10-13th.

Que sera whatever will be will be but never for us to see eh.

True. Nice to hear from you however.

Gavin's thoughts talks about cooler than average Mid Atlantic, warm Tropical Atlantic. Might help to account for cyclonic activity dipping south a bit, with reluctant HP belts developing, without great tenacity, over the fifties and higher. GFS seems to give sinking lows a helping hand quite a lot over the past few days.

LP continues to dominate the weather over the UK for the foreseeable - nothing particularly deep or active, just one centre after another drifting through, and the centres further south than you would expect for this time of year, so some cool NE-lies off the N Sea. GFS has a brief window of a ridge from Atlantic to Scandi 16th/17th but it doesn't last. ECM doesn't go that far, but does develop strong high pressure cells over both these locations without at that stage (14th) linking them up.

BTW, ECM has a particularly nasty storm off New England at that stage, but GFS doesn't buy it.

GEFS ensembles match the above with temps consistently about 3C below normal out to the 16th, then back to average but a wide scatter developing. Rain randomly everywhere, just a hint that the far N will be drier than average though not exempt from all rain - backed up by http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4

Just gone through the ENS blimey there are some mad looking charts about 

Agreed - it’s almost like the algorithms are straining every sinew to revert to a default zonal but something keeps saying ‘no we’re going full northern blocking so get lost’ 😉

Whether it’s unusual or not I’m not sure but some of the output going towards December would tempt Gary Sarre back from retirement.

Certainly raised an eye brow from me Neil