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TomC
  • TomC
  • Advanced Member
01 November 2019 09:05:12
I doubt this put enough sulphate aerosol in the stratosphere to cause significant cooling and hence a stronger stratospheric vortex. This usually needs strong tropical eruptions
idj20
01 November 2019 11:35:25


 


I must have missed the news of those.  Which were the volcanoes that blew off this year?


 


 


And as mentioned by DEW, the strength of the wind in the south on Saturday has popped up without much warning. In my daily scan through the Fax charts just now I spotted that the isobars on the T+36 chart for Saturday 12noon were close together in the south (but almost obscured by two fronts nearly coincident with the isobar lines).


Originally Posted by: AJ* 



Indeed, noticed how the EURO4 is being quite bullish about wind strength for tomorrow while GFS is being more reserved, usually it's the other way around with the models when it comes to predicting mean winds in the close range forecast. A true test for the models with Oct '87 still fresh to mind but hopefully it won't be a repeat of that.

And the recent volcanic eruptions are just mere bottom burps compared to Mount St Helens in 1981.


Folkestone Harbour. 
Brian Gaze
01 November 2019 11:43:46

ICON 6z going for 90mph gusts in the Channel tomorrow.



 


GFS 6z closer to 60mph:


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=06&charthour=18&chartname=windvector_gust&chartregion=uk&charttag=Wind%20gust


 


HIRLAM 6z mean wind speeds around 50mph, so I'd expect gusts to be significantly higher:


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/hirlam/06_27_ukwind.png?cb=0111201906


 


 


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
Northern Sky
01 November 2019 12:22:00

Week two looks chilly on the GFS06z. Maybe signs towards the end that we start to see a coupling between the strat and trop vortex?


Wouldn't be a surprise of course at this time of year so I'll take any cold/cool weather on offer before then.

DPower
01 November 2019 13:02:01

https://stratobserve.com/plots/20191031/tseries/anoms/gfs_nh-u60_20191031.png


You can clearly see the disconnect between troposphere and stratosphere by looking at the mean zonal wind anomaly chart above. How long this will go on for who knows. The two volcanic eruptions this year reached the strat. Spaceweather.com for several months have been reporting on this with purple sunsets caused  by volcanic aerosols in the atmosphere across the globe. 


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_HGT_ANOM_ALL_NH_2019.png


GPH anomaly chart from cpc stratosphere monitoring site shows the elevated heights throughout the year in the northern hemisphere. This looks set to continue for a while yet.

Maunder Minimum
01 November 2019 13:39:31


https://stratobserve.com/plots/20191031/tseries/anoms/gfs_nh-u60_20191031.png


You can clearly see the disconnect between troposphere and stratosphere by looking at the mean zonal wind anomaly chart above. How long this will go on for who knows. The two volcanic eruptions this year reached the strat. Spaceweather.com for several months have been reporting on this with purple sunsets caused  by volcanic aerosols in the atmosphere across the globe. 


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_HGT_ANOM_ALL_NH_2019.png


GPH anomaly chart from cpc stratosphere monitoring site shows the elevated heights throughout the year in the northern hemisphere. This looks set to continue for a while yet.


Originally Posted by: DPower 


Unfortunately, GFS is showing the Strat/Trop disconnect disappearing by mid-month with a strong PV getting organised (in line with the LRFs).


It would be nice to go back to some of the classic winters and see what was happening to the curse of the cursed PV back then - 1981-82 would be a good case study.


 


New world order coming.
Brian Gaze
01 November 2019 13:52:49

On the other hand a cold and cyclonic November is often considered as a tick next to the cold winter box. Of course we don't know how November will play out and Mr PSW could come back in the blink of an eyelid.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Gusty
01 November 2019 16:05:36

November arrives marking the start (for the south at least) of a seemingly tiresome 4 month period of extended autumn.


A cool and wet signature from the GEFS again today to set the ball rolling.


No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.


I'm sure many of us here would welcome a mild and dry winter now after the past few weeks.


A nice and easy winter akin to 1992/93 would be nice IMO. 


 


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
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Windy Willow
01 November 2019 16:46:40


November arrives marking the start (for the south at least) of a seemingly tiresome 4 month period of extended autumn.


A cool and wet signature from the GEFS again today to set the ball rolling.


No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.


I'm sure many of us here would welcome a mild and dry winter now after the past few weeks.


A nice and easy winter akin to 1992/93 would be nice IMO. 


 


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


 


 


2 x 1 on the snow row, for Londond in November! Not that I think for one second that's obviously going to happen but still. don't believe I have seen that before, this early. But then I've been told my memory isn't what it used to be 


South Holland, Lincs 5m/16ft ASL

Don't feed the Trolls!! When starved of attention they return to their dark caves or the dark recesses of bridges and will turn back to stone, silent again!
Heavy Weather 2013
01 November 2019 16:50:44


November arrives marking the start (for the south at least) of a seemingly tiresome 4 month period of extended autumn.


A cool and wet signature from the GEFS again today to set the ball rolling.


No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.


I'm sure many of us here would welcome a mild and dry winter now after the past few weeks.


A nice and easy winter akin to 1992/93 would be nice IMO. 


 


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


Do I sense a small amount of reverse psychology in this post.


In all seriousness though, I remember how fed up you were with the 2018/19 offerings.


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
LeedsLad123
01 November 2019 18:18:01


November arrives marking the start (for the south at least) of a seemingly tiresome 4 month period of extended autumn.


A cool and wet signature from the GEFS again today to set the ball rolling.


No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.


I'm sure many of us here would welcome a mild and dry winter now after the past few weeks.


A nice and easy winter akin to 1992/93 would be nice IMO. 


 


Originally Posted by: Gusty 


Something like February 1998, 2008 or 2019 would be nice.


Whitkirk, Leeds - 85m ASL.
idj20
01 November 2019 18:57:12

I remember the winter of '08-09 as I was halfway through a 365 photography mission and there were a lot of lovely hazy light in the Winter/early Spring season. On the other hand, Nov 2010 was very wet and unsettled and we can all remember what happened next. But of course, no two years are ever exactly alike with our mid-latitude climate.

Back on topic, the 12z GFS as well as the ECM are too painful to look at for too long, even if most of it are in the form of "cold" cyclonic activity. Much rather have a cold high being close to us.  


Folkestone Harbour. 
doctormog
01 November 2019 19:18:02
Yes, cool and unsettled (very unsettled at times) seems to sum up the current outlook.
Nick Gilly
01 November 2019 21:39:30


ICON 6z going for 90mph gusts in the Channel tomorrow.



 


GFS 6z closer to 60mph:


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=06&charthour=18&chartname=windvector_gust&chartregion=uk&charttag=Wind%20gust


 


HIRLAM 6z mean wind speeds around 50mph, so I'd expect gusts to be significantly higher:


https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/charts/hirlam/06_27_ukwind.png?cb=0111201906


 


 


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


 


If this system is as bad as that map and the BBC's forecast is suggesting, then why hasn't it been named? Seems to meet the criteria with winds like that!

ballamar
01 November 2019 22:52:23
Impressive Scandi high on GFS, lots of variety on high pressure influence but interesting to see
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
02 November 2019 07:16:55

Impressive Scandi high on GFS, lots of variety on high pressure influence but interesting to see

Originally Posted by: ballamar 


Another day, another take on the pressure pattern.


GFS which yesterday was keen on a Scandi high with ridge to UK has now put establishment of HP in Scandi back a few days (to ca 13th) and even then little sign of a ridge in this direction. Instead we continue through this coming week and into the next with LP centres, nothing very deep, moving across Britain, though later on (again, ca 13th) they tend to stall and decay in situ. This allows more of a S flow and GEFS reflects this with most runs going from slightly below to slightly above average temps. Rainfall predictions on GFS show some rain everywhere and continuing for the forecast period.


ECM (yesterday's 12z) is stiil with the Scandi high and ridging at the end of its run, around the 11th.


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
idj20
02 November 2019 10:32:03

Both GFS and ECM are coming up with a similar idea of HP ridging in from both SW and NE thus putting the UK under a slack no-man's land set up by around the 11th Nov. Until then we still have to put up with LP rattling in from the Atlantic one after the other, although the saving grace is they appear to be as decaying features so the outlook for next week may be classed as "changeable" rather than "unsettled". 


Folkestone Harbour. 
picturesareme
02 November 2019 18:50:11


 


 


If this system is as bad as that map and the BBC's forecast is suggesting, then why hasn't it been named? Seems to meet the criteria with winds like that!


Originally Posted by: Nick Gilly 


Top wind speed was 109.4mph!! At the needles on the IOW. 


Probably not named as the winds were largely coastal and not in the important areas like London, Birmingham, or Manchester.

tallyho_83
03 November 2019 02:02:04

Just wanted to share this from weather is cool - the forecast for strength of zonal winds @ 10hpa:


Seems interesting!? Could all change of course but for now at least - all models showing a weakened zonal flow into December and some even going into reverse!?


If only....?



Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Magical Moon
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Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
03 November 2019 04:46:29


 


Top wind speed was 109.4mph!! At the needles on the IOW. 


Probably not named as the winds were largely coastal and not in the important areas like London, Birmingham, or Manchester.


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 

Yet here in the East Midlands, it’s been flat calm with not a bit of breeze!


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
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DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
03 November 2019 07:35:58

GFS has a different take on a blocking high this morning, sbecoming prminent over Scandi from the 7th but only for a week, and then retreating into Russia where it eventually reaches 1050mb. Both temp and precip below normal over Scandi for the coming week http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4 though the Baltic could get a lot of snow later on.


Meanwhile, back in the UK, the blocking directs a series of not very deep depressions across the UK from NW to SE (though with the caveat that yesterday's storm was forecast not very deep at one stage) and eventually (from 13th) a bit deeper but stalling them off the W of Ireland.


ECM has a similar procession of depressions but without the benefit of a Scandi high until ca 12th when it emerges with a stong ridge to a mid-Atlantic high. ECM and GFS - both today's 0z - are dramatically different for the 13th


GEFS continues generally unsettled and on the cold side, though several runs are back to average temps or above later on.


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Bertwhistle
03 November 2019 08:16:19

Thursday evening snow depths around Ross on Wye (26cm) a bit hard to believe in the GFS:


No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.


Bertie, Itchen Valley.
Retire while you can still press the 'retire now' button.
scillydave
03 November 2019 09:22:55


Thursday evening snow depths around Ross on Wye (26cm) a bit hard to believe in the GFS:


No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.


Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 


I'll take that!


It wouldn't be the first time that I've seen snow here in  November, in fact it's snowed here in each of the last 5 Novembers however I'd be very surprised to get anything like that amount if any snow at all.


The tops of the Malverns might well see a flake or two.


 


Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.
ballamar
03 November 2019 09:50:04
Would be great if this pattern kept repeating would definitely be a case of it could snow anywhere especially Dec and jan.

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