Looks like a little bit of a wait, still, for the changed tropical signal to fully feed through to our part of the world. That being what, to look at it simply, is represented by the switch from deep blues and purples to yellows and oranges around the 180* mark (i.e. the Dateline) on 14th Aug.
There's been some adjustment in the mid-range, sure - hence Wed-Fri next week doesn't look as cool as it once did - but it appears that, unless the models are having a major gaff, the main change is still some 8-10 days away. This being in the form of high pressure building across NW Europe and the UK.
The FV3/GFS 06z makes a half-decent attempt at this change in 10 days time, but its progressive habits with N. Atlantic troughs then makes a mess of things and leaves us waiting another 4 days for the next Euro-UK ridge build.
The ECM 00z seemed still some way off the pattern shift as of +10 days, but I'm unconvinced by the way it's handling the tropical cycle at the moment (general consensus among experts in the field is for an amplified tropical wave to propagate east across the Pacific, but ECM has no such thing).
It's not out of the question that we could escape the mobile, changeable / unsettled regime a bit sooner; by next weekend even. The models have been known to be way too slow to translate a change in the tropical Pacific across to the N. Atlantic and European patterns. So if you have plans for a week's time, there's more hope than the model output might have you believe.
I expect that the EPS is being especially slow on this occasion. It takes until a fortnight's time for a settling down of the weather to be represented more than slightly in the clusters!
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