Just to keep us all on our toes the ECM 00z brings the traditional school holiday switch, just in time for break up day next week.

The schools break up tomorrow.

Looks like the heat will break next week but it's interesting see a few GEFS runs showing mid 30C even in early August.

 

The schools break up tomorrow.

Your children are lucky. Mine break up next Wednesday.

 Your children are lucky. Mine break up next Wednesday.

I blame them 

The breakdown in the 2nd half of next week looks the most likely outcome, but it's not over yet.

 The ECM mean is hotter and less unsettled than the Op longer-term,  as you might expect.

Looks like the heat will break next week but it's interesting see a few GEFS runs showing mid 30C even in early August.

Why are there two green (operational) lines on that graph, Brian? Is it a display problem or am I reading it wrong?

 

 

Why are there two green (operational) lines on that graph, Brian? Is it a display problem or am I reading it wrong?

Max and min?

 

Max and min?

It's wrong then the 0z had 30+ maxes for London next week.

GFS 06z replicates the pattern of 00z but is a tiny bit later to breakdown. This means maxes of 34C on Tuesday and 36 on Wed, which if it's sunny I reckon could easily actually be 35-36C then 37-38C. 41-42C in France. Then breakdown but still hot on Thursday and Friday.

ICON similar but less meridional up to 120hrs.

GFS 6z maxes for London next week Monday 28c, Tuesday 34c, Wednesday 36c, Thursday 32c , Friday 29c 

You can normally add a couple of degrees for the actual UK max. Could be a record breaker next week. 

GFS 6z maxes for London next week Monday 28c, Tuesday 34c, Wednesday 36c, Thursday 32c 

Phew so thats nudging a record.

GFS 6z maxes for London next week Monday 28c, Tuesday 34c, Wednesday 36c, Thursday 32c , Friday 29c 

 

You can normally add a couple of degrees for the actual UK max. Could be a record breaker next week. 

It does seem like we get "potential record breakers" remarkably often in summer these days. 35C+ used to be quite a rarity but now it seems like a regular occurrence, at least on the models!

 

Phew so thats nudging a record.

 

July record is definitely under threat 36.7c 

 

 

It does seem like we get "potential record breakers" remarkably often in summer these days. 35C+ used to be quite a rarity but now it seems like a regular occurrence, at least on the models!

 

20C 850hPa does seem to be losing its shock and awe value in the UK it has to be said. Heat also now seems to build astonishingly quickly. 

Yes please GFS 6z rebuilds high pressure in FI. Probably the best possible outcome.

 

20C 850hPa does seem to be losing its shock and awe value in the UK it has to be said. Heat also now seems to build astonishingly quickly. 

I've noticed this myself. When I see 20C on a chart I don't immediately gasp. Only a few years ago I did. Would be the equivalent of -15C in winter becoming something that comes along every 2 or 3 years.

Likewise 25C over the continent. Happening again next week.

Agree with Ally Pally that the GFS 06z is a very nice evolution. Scorching heat, then a bit of thunder (though maybe rather less rain would be better), then calming down to pleasantly warm sunny weather is ideal.

 

I've noticed this myself. When I see 20C on a chart I don't immediately gasp. Only a few years ago I did. Would be the equivalent of -15C in winter becoming something that comes along every 2 or 3 years.

Likewise 25C over the continent. Happening again next week.

Agree with Ally Pally that the GFS 06z is a very nice evolution. Scorching heat, then a bit of thunder (though maybe rather less rain would be better), then calming down to pleasantly warm sunny weather is ideal.

I was thinking the same thing. until 2003. The 32C seemed to always be the upper limit to alot of heatwaves. 34C now seems like a run of the mill figure. Maybe its just perception. But when I was younger I used to get so excited if 33C or above was shown as very rarely seemed to be the case.

 

I've noticed this myself. When I see 20C on a chart I don't immediately gasp. Only a few years ago I did. Would be the equivalent of -15C in winter becoming something that comes along every 2 or 3 years.

Likewise 25C over the continent. Happening again next week.

Agree with Ally Pally that the GFS 06z is a very nice evolution. Scorching heat, then a bit of thunder (though maybe rather less rain would be better), then calming down to pleasantly warm sunny weather is ideal.

Yes, a very decent 6z. Actually keeps the SE quadrant dry beyond next weekend. A fab evolution. Hopefully the trendsetter. 

 Yes, a very decent 6z. Actually keeps the SE quadrant dry beyond next weekend. A fab evolution. Hopefully the trendsetter. 

But some of us who are gardeners do need the rain!

I wasn't  really agreeing with you earlier, but putting a different emphasis, hot early rather than warm, and a thundery breakdown followed by the foreseeable future pleasant rather than warm, i.e. close to or a little above average. I think that's still on according to the 06z

For warmth, I see that GFS06z has another (short-lived) plume around the 29th once the thundery stuff is out of the way