Yep, another rank outlier (even more outlierish than the last). I wonder what is making these consecutive runs all go a different route from the rest - and the opposite in the case of ECM? Maybe just statistical chance.

Not often you see the ENS mean at or around 15C for over a week.

 

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I’m talking about op runs. 2 in a row that were cool outliers compared with ENS, and then a third unsettled op which I feared might not this time be an outlier (but actually looks like it is, again). 

Hence thrice denied. Hot ensembles are nice but it’s better to have a hot op run too.

Look at the ensembles as they give a better idea of the pattern as there are more of them.. Being melodramatic out of one run of 20 odd is pointless.

Last four runs for London. Looks a mess to me. Could be hot next week. Or not.

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Last four runs for London. Looks a mess to me. Could be hot next week. Or not.

Probably will be hot next week. Even today's 06z op has 2 days where we'd easily get 30C in London. But for how long? Is this July 2003 or August 2003?

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Looking increasingly hot next week in the south.
Probably going to be one of those intense muggy spells that creeps up and takes everyone by surprise.
A Very different picture further north however, really dreary there.

 

Look at the ensembles as they give a better idea of the pattern as there are more of them.. Being melodramatic out of one run of 20 odd is pointless.

 

To be fair I don't think he was intending to be melodramatic, more baffled by the GFS Op's insistence that this ain't happening.

As you say, it has no ensemble support so wise men treat with caution. 

We seem to be in a weird pattern with the models where ECM Op is constantly kicking out hot outliers and the GFS Op is constantly kicking out cold ones! 

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We seem to be in a weird pattern with the models where ECM Op is constantly kicking out hot outliers and the GFS Op is constantly kicking out cold ones! 

Yet oddly, both the GFS and EC means pretty much agree on the general trend as this example shows - the EC 00z & GEFS 06z 5 day 850 temp D.f.A for between days 5 and 10:

 

 

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The other notable thing is that the BBC and Met Office long term forecasts still really aren't buying the idea of settled hot weather. See the media thread. There's some grudging acknowledgement in today's BBC update that a bit of heat may accidentally leak from the continent into the South next week, but it's almost moominesque in its take on things. Contrast that with last summer when we had monthly forecasts of rare certainty about settled and warm weather.

I think this is probably a bit of expectations management - trying not to ramp if there's uncertainty - and also a recognition that they speak for the whole UK not just the SE, and this does not look like a whole UK affair next week.

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The other notable thing is that the BBC and Met Office long term forecasts still really aren't buying the idea of settled hot weather. See the media thread. There's some grudging acknowledgement in today's BBC update that a bit of heat may accidentally leak from the continent into the South next week, but it's almost moominesque in its take on things. Contrast that with last summer when we had monthly forecasts of rare certainty about settled and warm weather.

I think this is probably a bit of expectations management - trying not to ramp if there's uncertainty - and also a recognition that they speak for the whole UK not just the SE, and this does not look like a whole UK affair next week.

The metoffice..

 

"..southern and southeastern parts of the UK should see much drier and warmer weather, which could become hot and rather humid at times, especially early to mid next week."

Ties in with the London gfs ensembles i posted earlier 🙂

Gfs 12z should be much warmer, but still not like the EC.

Gfs 12z should be much warmer, but still not like the EC.

Yes, very different from 06z up to next Tuesday, but still more low cyclonic than many runs (so far).

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Yes, very different from 06z up to next Tuesday, but still more low cyclonic than many runs (so far).

The 850hPa 20C isotherm will pay us a visit on this run.

GFS 12z going for 31C next Tuesday.

PS: Small screen users now have a persistent zoom toggle option on the model chart pages, GFS link below: 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=12&charthour=147&chartname=uk2mtmp&chartregion=uk&charttag=2m%20max%20temp%20(C)

 

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Hotter for longer, but not the boiling cauldron of some of the ENS members or the last 2 ECMs.

I wonder if this is the kind of compromise, split the difference evolution that other models may gravitate towards. The Norway-plus of heatwaves: certain not revoke, but not full-on WTO either. A heatwave Nick Boles or Rory Stewart would be happy with.

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but it's almost moominesque in its take on things

 

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I’ve just issued my Facebook alert on heatwave conditions for next week.

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I’ve just issued my Facebook alert on heatwave conditions for next week.

A bit early for that although the SE does look likely to be warm for a time, the GEM run looks most plausible from the 12zs so far.

 

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Not if you look at those Ian some really hot runs in the mixer gfs always good at the latest trend key seems to be the extent and handling off that low finer detailed probably nailed by about Saturday 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=51.5085&lon=-0.12574&run=12&ext=fr&mode=7&sort=0

 

 

 

A bit early for that although the SE does look likely to be warm for a time, the GEM run looks most plausible from the 12zs so far.

 

Automated output on my phone is suggesting a decent warm-up rather than a blink-and-you-miss-it blast, with 28 29 29 30 30 the temps from Mon to Fri next week in London.

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Certainly a few real bazookas in the mix tonight but also a cluster which appears to bring cooler conditions back quite quickly.

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