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The set-up is dependent on the lower pressure anomaly West of Iberia, far from certain to happen and the Atlantic low being further East and South is the likelier scenario.
Like the previous pseudo-plume, I would also be very cautious on extrapolation of T2s from the 850s when the flow is not SSW/S. The anomaly you mention would correlate to a heat low - which is what scuppered high temps due to excessive cloud cover over the UK.
Not sure if already posted but the CMC 12z is showing 37C in East Anglia next Wed.
MO looking increasingly toasty next week in the south.Let us hope the rain forecast over the weekend is delivered else gardens and crops will get some serious stress by the end of next week.
MO looking increasingly toasty next week in the south.
Let us hope the rain forecast over the weekend is delivered else gardens and crops will get some serious stress by the end of next week.
Friday’s system needs a direct hit here. My lawn is turning to bloody straw. Was out watering it yet again earlier.
Just to keep us on our toes tonight’s GFS 18z looks like it’s bringing a transient heatwavelet with maxes possibly getting to 30C for a day or two before the Atlantic returns. So it remains very unpredictable.
And still unpredictable this morning
ECM and GFS control (from the ensembles) if you want a full on heatwave at the end of next week
GFS 0z ad GFS op if you want the hot air to brush past and finish up in Lapland (the GFS op for Brighton is actually below average for the end of July)
EC 00z op run very hot for next week, with 30s every day and mid-30s already from Tuesday.
This run would produce 35-38C during Tue-Thu (hottest Wed & Thu).
Would be good to see GFS come into line over the next 24hrs.
It should be noted that even though the OP was an outlier, there is support in the ensembles for a heatwave.
Bit of a rain event contend with on 20 July.
I have a feeling this could be the big one. I remember in 2003 the big heatwave was preceded by a rain event.
Logic suggests ECM 00z was for the bin.
https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmwfens.aspx?run=00&lg=850&lglocation=london
Hunch suggests it is something to watch. Ensembles can sometimes lag IMO.
Logic suggests ECM 00z was for the bin.https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/ecmwfens.aspx?run=00&lg=850&lglocation=londonHunch suggests it is something to watch. Ensembles can sometimes lag IMO.
It does feel a bit about hunch at the moment. Too knife edge. Contrast with the June heatwave which (for France at least) was accurately programmed over a week in advance and really didn't change much. But that was high pressure driven and involving a Tc airmass, this is low pressure driven involving a Tm heat-pump.
An interesting comparison is the mini heatwave of mid July 2003 (12-15th). Remarkably similar buildup, and remarkably similar breakdown to that shown on the less settled ensemble members (and the GFS op). Run the reanalysis to see what I mean. I remember the buildup- there were runs a few days before indicating 20C uppers and record beating temperatures. I was heading off to France in the middle of it too. But in the end it was a 3 day wonder and we had meh weather for the rest of the month before the August heatwave.
Not just sometimes, but fairly often. And obviously the EC op run has more skill than the ens mean up to days 6/7 now.
Last time the EC op runs got spectacularly right the setup 7 days in advance (including the low surface temps with the extremely high T850s), but obviously this was a different setup and the model benefited not just from its higher horizontal resolution (global inputs), but also from its higher vertical resolution (local impacts).
This is a different pattern with different uncertainties (the ridge could be further northeast with more troughing near the UK). I don't think we can have high confidence yet, but I would definitely be warmer than the EC ens mean (which keeps trending warmer anyway).
One run breaks the 25C mark on the 00Z GFS! And not long afterwards, another run dips to about 1C...
At 2m, the range on July 25 for central southern England is from a max of 17C to a max of 35C!
ECM raw output has 37C for the Oxford area on Thursday.
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/buckinghamshire/max-temperature-6h/20190725-1800z.html
Looks like GFS 06z is going for the hat trick and denying us thrice, with very similar breakdown to both 18z and 00z. Doesn't want to know. I fear this time it may not be such an outlier, but we'll see.
Denying what exactly??? Certainly not heat on the 00z!
IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page
Denying what exactly??? Certainly not heat on the 00z!IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page
The 06Z op run only gives us a very brief waft of high uppers. Let's wait for the ensemble though.
He's not talking about heat he can't be as you can read in the post questioned he talked of 00z and they are the ensembles for 00z. They show a clear sustained week of heat (high 20's - low 30's).
I’m talking about op runs. 2 in a row that were cool outliers compared with ENS, and then a third unsettled op which I feared might not this time be an outlier (but actually looks like it is, again).
Hence thrice denied. Hot ensembles are nice but it’s better to have a hot op run too.
Something for everyone.