I've been on the south coast for the last few days. The weather has been glorious, in fact quite a lot better than I expected. The outlook generally looks pretty decent to me. Whether or not we'll get an extended hot spell later this month or in August is debatable.

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This weeks ECM weekly has updated overnight

For the week ahead it's generally around or a bit above average for temperature with a mix on rain above average in parts of the north but below average in the south and west

15th to 21st

Remaining above average temp wise with rainfall not really showing a strong signal for the majority 

22nd to 28th

Temps continue a bit above average but a stronger signal for above average rainfall for all but the far north of Scotland

29th to 4th

Temps continue to be around or a bit above average with above average rain continuing in the north and west but a bit drier the further south and east you are

I've been on the south coast for the last few days. The weather has been glorious, in fact quite a lot better than I expected. The outlook generally looks pretty decent to me. Whether or not we'll get an extended hot spell later this month or in August is debatable.

Its always glorious on the south coast

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This weeks ECM weekly has updated overnight

For the week ahead it's generally around or a bit above average for temperature with a mix on rain above average in parts of the north but below average in the south and west

 

15th to 21st

Remaining above average temp wise with rainfall not really showing a strong signal for the majority 

 

Temps continue a bit above average but a stronger signal for above average rainfall for all but the far north of Scotland

 

29th to 4th

Temps continue to be around or a bit above average with above average rain continuing in the north and west but a bit drier the further south and east you are

 

Backed up by the GEFS ensembles - nothing too exciting anywhere, though I think we may see a return of the drought thread. Rain around, but it looks a bit hit and miss.

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Its always glorious on the south coast

But the inlanders never believe it 🤣 

Until you want snow in winter!

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Until you want snow in winter!

This so true.. this part of the south coast is one of the worst places for snow. It wouldn't surprise me if Rome saw more snow then here. 

Any way back on topic its looking fairly settled and pleasant down here low to mid 20's. 

I've been on the south coast for the last few days. The weather has been glorious, in fact quite a lot better than I expected. The outlook generally looks pretty decent to me. Whether or not we'll get an extended hot spell later this month or in August is debatable.

Indeed Brian, classic English Goldilocks summer conditions for the foreseeable, albeit with the cream of the crop reserved for our friends on the sunny south coast. Ice creams and pretty girls in candy stripes, t-shirts for goalposts. 

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GFS Op temperature forecasts have been short of the mark this week. I often read about how this output 'undercooks' the temperatures; they are regularly 2-3C out of late. Not complaining- every afternoon is a nice surprise. I think the erratic boundary of the warmer uppers and fluctuating thickness forecasts aren't helping: these appear quite marginal in the south at times it seems.

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GFS 12z is a beauty long term. Just some hints now of a heatwave later in July one to watch.

 

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Let’s hope so as currently the weather has been grey and gloomy in London ! Possibly the models are on to something ?

 

Its always glorious on the south coast

absolutely! There are plenty of advantages  living  down here...weather wise...when it comes to the autumn, spring and summer, possibly less so in the winter 😛😛

Let’s hope so as currently the weather has been grey and gloomy in London ! Possibly the models are on to something ?

Its very stagnant isn’t it. Although today was pretty warm given the cloud amounts 

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Some interest in the models as to whether the development of a depression in mid-Atlantic could disturb the present 'stagnant' situation. GFS has some development around the 21st but it fades again; ECM actually brings it across the UK (and quite cold) on the 19th; BBC weather toying with the idea that it will stand off 'in the middle of next week' i.e. 17th bringing up warm air and thunderstorms up from the south. Certainly GEFS  ensemble rainfall spikes become more noticeable from about those dates.

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There’s a continuing split between ECM and other models over what happens from mid next week onwards. ECM unsettled, GFS/GEM/UKMO (latter to an extent) settled and warming up. That difference has been clear for the last day or so of runs.

This is the critical point in the season. I hope ECM is wrong. The difference seems to be the degree to which the models collapse the current negative AO and reduce pressure over Greenland. ECM is more tenacious with the Greenland high.

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There’s a continuing split between ECM and other models over what happens from mid next week onwards. ECM unsettled, GFS/GEM/UKMO (latter to an extent) settled and warming up. That difference has been clear for the last day or so of runs.

This is the critical point in the season. I hope ECM is wrong. The difference seems to be the degree to which the models collapse the current negative AO and reduce pressure over Greenland. ECM is more tenacious with the Greenland high.

You've summed things up pretty well there, Tim. As you say, it seems to be a case of three models against one at the moment. I have been watching the UKMO runs over the last couple of days or so and it for one seems to have been fairly consistent with its idea of the LP in the atlantic next week moving in the direction of Iceland/Greenland instead of moving towards the UK. Let's hope it is the latter solution that comes to pass.

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looks like the BBC/Meteogroup are going for some of a north-south split next week with the northern half of the UK being more unsettled, but with the southern half of the UK being warmer, drier and more settled.

I discovered that from looking at the local forecasts for two different cities on the BBC Weather website. The first location which I chose for that was my own home location here in Edinburgh. For here, it showed next Monday to be fine before it then becomes a bit more unsettled from next Tuesday onwards. After that, it then becomes drier again by the following weekend.

The other city which I chose for that was London and for there, it was was shown to dry, warm and fine throughout that entire period. I'm not sure which model the BBC/Meteogroup uses to produce such a forecast. However, my thinking is that if there is such a big discrepancy between the output from the various models for next week with one model showing it to be unsettled whilst another one shows it to be fine and dry throughout that same period of time, we would be more likely to get a blend of those two solutions which then produces something which is somewhere in between them.

For here in the UK, the default set-up tends to be to have high pressure to the south with low pressure to the north which then results in the weather being more unsettled in the north and more settled in the south. Since that also comes somewhere between those two solutions of being completely settled and being generally unsettled, it would appear to me as though this is the line which the BBC/Meteogroup is taking a result.

At the moment, I wouldn't be surprised if that was how this all ended up although as always, it is important to keep a very close eye on things as each different form of model output is just one option which is on the table, and which can potentially end up happening if such an option is only an outlier with little or no chance of that actually happening.

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This mornings Gfs run puts us on Mercury:

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png 

Models still differ on treatment of LP mid to late next week, GFS brushing it past, ECM more direct (though less so than yesterday). Some ensemble rainfall spikes around that time. 

Extended outlook into FI suggests only a temporary interlude with warm/hot air returning, maybe becoming thundery in the south a couple of weeks from now?

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Heatwave bulge still there this morning starting about the 21st.

 

 

 

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