looks like the BBC/Meteogroup are going for some of a north-south split next week with the northern half of the UK being more unsettled, but with the southern half of the UK being warmer, drier and more settled.
I discovered that from looking at the local forecasts for two different cities on the BBC Weather website. The first location which I chose for that was my own home location here in Edinburgh. For here, it showed next Monday to be fine before it then becomes a bit more unsettled from next Tuesday onwards. After that, it then becomes drier again by the following weekend.
The other city which I chose for that was London and for there, it was was shown to dry, warm and fine throughout that entire period. I'm not sure which model the BBC/Meteogroup uses to produce such a forecast. However, my thinking is that if there is such a big discrepancy between the output from the various models for next week with one model showing it to be unsettled whilst another one shows it to be fine and dry throughout that same period of time, we would be more likely to get a blend of those two solutions which then produces something which is somewhere in between them.
For here in the UK, the default set-up tends to be to have high pressure to the south with low pressure to the north which then results in the weather being more unsettled in the north and more settled in the south. Since that also comes somewhere between those two solutions of being completely settled and being generally unsettled, it would appear to me as though this is the line which the BBC/Meteogroup is taking a result.
At the moment, I wouldn't be surprised if that was how this all ended up although as always, it is important to keep a very close eye on things as each different form of model output is just one option which is on the table, and which can potentially end up happening if such an option is only an outlier with little or no chance of that actually happening.
Edited by user
Wednesday, July 10, 2019 9:10:01 AM
|
Reason: Not specified
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.