Synoptic charts less convincing on this - warm, but it would overstating to call it a heat wave; even rather cool in the NW

EDIT: now had a look at the Scottish ensembles - dostinctly average temps even for S & E Scotland

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Synoptic charts less convincing on this - warm, but it would overstating to call it a heat wave; even rather cool in the NW

GFS Op is on the cool side of the ENS, but ECM is not looking great either, and UKMO is similar.

Jury remains out on the summer at this point.

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Synoptic charts less convincing on this - warm, but it would overstating to call it a heat wave; even rather cool in the NW

EDIT: now had a look at the Scottish ensembles - dostinctly average temps even for S & E Scotland

 

GFS mean looks good from about 192h , decently high pressure and very warm. Think we will see better GFS later today.

 

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Not scientific but after a shocking start this summer has been getting better and better down here. That trend may well continue IMO. Having said that I was out of country for quite a long time so missed a number of dog days. 

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Not scientific but after a shocking start this summer has been getting better and better down here. That trend may well continue IMO. Having said that I was out of country for quite a long time so missed a number of dog days. 

I was waking home yesterday and was thinking the same.

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yes a lot of very useable pleasant summer weather this past 3 weeks or so without being over hot

 

 

GFS mean looks good from about 192h , decently high pressure and very warm. Think we will see better GFS later today.

 

Hi APS, where can the GFS mean charts be accessed? Thanks.

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Not scientific but after a shocking start this summer has been getting better and better down here. That trend may well continue IMO. Having said that I was out of country for quite a long time so missed a number of dog days. 

 

Agreed. Appreciate that it's possibly locally limited to the south, but we've had day after day of perfectly usable and very pleasant weather. 21-26C most days. Plenty of strong, if not wall to wall sunshine. Probably about 15C minima each night so no problems sleeping. I haven't taken a coat out with me for a good two weeks now. Unspectacular but very pleasant.

If this is the rest of the summer, that works for me. Kind of how I remember them being - with 30C being an occasional exception rather than the almost weekly event of some recent summers.

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Hi APS, where can the GFS mean charts be accessed? Thanks.

 

the new wetterzentrale site has the avg/average for each gfs run every 6hrs.

 

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Agreed. Appreciate that it's possibly locally limited to the south, but we've had day after day of perfectly usable and very pleasant weather. 21-26C most days. Plenty of strong, if not wall to wall sunshine. Probably about 15C minima each night so no problems sleeping. I haven't taken a coat out with me for a good two weeks now. Unspectacular but very pleasant.

If this is the rest of the summer, that works for me. Kind of how I remember them being - with 30C being an occasional exception rather than the almost weekly event of some recent summers.

No it hasn’t been limited to the South.  We only got a couple of days of the ‘end of June heatwave’ but July has been perfect so far with plenty of sunshine, temps 21 - 26c every day and lasting well into the evening.  We’ve had a three nights dropping to high single figures but otherwise low to mid teens which, as you say, is good for sleeping.  As Brian said, it has just kept on improving!  

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the new wetterzentrale site has the avg/average for each gfs run every 6hrs.

 

Thanks Ally, found it!

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The weak high pressure appears to slowly ebb away this week allowing a relatively shallow Atlantic low pressure system to influence things from mid week on-wards.

Nothing too troubling though for the UK and certainly not the train of fronts that have wrecked our most unsettled summers. Indeed the trough is fairly slack with SE England in particular prone to potential hot spells at short notice given the synoptic set up.

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Without wishing to jinx things, there are some seriously hot runs appearing in the GEFS and have been for a couple of days. Some of those looks rather unpleasant for the near continent - a replay of the June heatwave.

Certainly things seem to be gearing up for a switch in the Atlantic pattern from next weekend onwards.

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Poor 12zs with an incresingly signal for low pressure at mid-latitudes, what develops in late July often dictates August so it looks wise to enjoy the next couple of days.

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Indeed some seriously hot runs in the GFS ensembles. GEM also goes full heatwave tonight.  I'd say 50/50 for a significant heatwave starting in about 9 days .

 

 

 

 

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Agree that it could go either way. Alternatively we could see the model runs diluting as the time approaches and the quiet weather continuing to dominate.

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Seems like there's relatively good agreement on a flattening out of the jet stream over then next week or so. The omega pattern looks like being pinched with the Atlantic pushing back in, so wetter for most away from the far SE. The prior trend of keeping LP systems to our NW seems to have been reigned in along with this move to a flat jet profile, with warmer more settled periods for the majority of the UK being mostly transient for now.

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Indeed some seriously hot runs in the GFS ensembles. GEM also goes full heatwave tonight.  I'd say 50/50 for a significant heatwave starting in about 9 days .

 

 

 

 

I'd say a very small chance of a heatwave, and a much higher chance of a very unsettled pattern taking hold.

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I'd say a very small chance of a heatwave, and a much higher chance of a very unsettled pattern taking hold.

I have to agree, upstream patterns don’t look favourable to me for a heatwave and, if anything,  chances are it’s more likely that it could turn very unsettled.

Seems like there's relatively good agreement on a flattening out of the jet stream over then next week or so. The omega pattern looks like being pinched with the Atlantic pushing back in, so wetter for most away from the far SE. The prior trend of keeping LP systems to our NW seems to have been reigned in along with this move to a flat jet profile, with warmer more settled periods for the majority of the UK being mostly transient for now.

Agreed, generally, though I'm a little more optimistic about the weather remaining fairly quiet. Though LP systems are forecast to be steered closer, especially to the NW and around the 27th, there doesn't seem to be a dramatic decline in this morning's charts from the weather we've been having.

Any general declaration of a heatwave needs to look further afield than London GEFS - as I've noted before, warm, but not spectacularly so.

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