Are there any warnings out for strong winds in the south this morning? Arpege has been flagging it up for days and I can see from the obs that 70mph gusts are being reported in the south west.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/uk-weather-archive-map.aspx

 

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Not sure about central southern England, but we have had gusts up to 63mph down here under a yellow wind warning.

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Not sure about central southern England, but we have had gusts up to 63mph down here under a yellow wind warning.

Just seen the warnings. TBH the new website caught me out and I missed them. 

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Just seen the warnings. TBH the new website caught me out and I missed them. 

 

Yes 70 mph + gusts for an area north of London could be some damage later.

 

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https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2019-03-10&id=7c5e0127-0dd2-40a0-873b-f2f467780ea7&details 

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Met office

Friday 15 Mar - Sunday 24 Mar

Unsettled conditions are set to continue on Friday with strong winds and showers across northern and central areas. Showers will be heaviest in the north, falling as snow over hills, but sunshine is likely between showers. More persistent rain is possible for southern counties on Friday and Saturday. Temperatures are likely to fluctuate around normal but overnight frosts are still likely under clear skies. There are signals for the Atlantic-driven unsettled theme to continue through the following week. We are likely to see further spells of wind and rain, followed by drier, more showery periods. The wettest, windiest weather always most likely in the northwest. Towards the end of the outlook there may be a tendency for the unsettled conditions to be more confined to northern areas.

Monday 25 Mar - Monday 9 Apr

At the start of the extended outlook unsettled weather will likely become more confined to the north and northwest of the UK, with a greater chance of drier, brighter weather across southern and southeastern areas. These more settled conditions may extend across the UK through late March and early April. Temperatures through this period are likely to begin cooler, but trending towards normal or above normal, giving noticeably warmer days, though some overnight frosts remain possible. More changeable spells are likely to be short lived, but there is low confidence as to any timings or detail.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Met office

Saturday 16 Mar - Monday 25 Mar

Cloud and rain are expected to affect the south, and perhaps central parts, of the UK early on Saturday, and will clear with bright and showery weather extending countrywide by the day's end. Showers may be heavy in the north and fall as a mixture of sleet or snow at times. Any strong winds will ease through the day too. Lighter winds and cooler on Sunday. Then there are signals for an Atlantic-driven and unsettled theme through the following week. We are likely to see further spells of wind and rain, followed by drier, more showery periods. The wettest, windiest weather always most likely in the northwest. Towards the end of the outlook there may be a tendency for the unsettled conditions to be more confined to northern areas.

Tuesday 26 Mar - Tuesday 10 Apr

At the start of the extended outlook the existing unsettled weather will likely become more confined to the north and northwest of the UK, with a greater chance of drier, brighter weather across southern and southeastern areas. These more settled, drier conditions may extend across the UK through late March and early April, although some some more changeable spells are still likely, but there is low confidence as to their timing and detail. Temperatures through this period are likely to begin cooler than normal, but then trend towards normal or above normal, giving noticeably warmer days in early April, though some overnight frosts remain possible. 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Met office

Sunday 17 Mar - Tuesday 16 Mar

Sunshine and showers are likely for many on Sunday, with the risk of hail and thunder. Showers in the north may fall as sleet and snow occasionally, especially over higher ground, but it will become drier into Monday. Any strong winds will ease through the day too. It will then stay unsettled through the week, particularly in the north. We are likely to see further spells of wind and rain, followed by drier, more showery periods. The wettest and windiest weather will always be most likely in the northwest, with the driest conditions for the south and southeast. Snow is likely in the north at times, mainly over higher ground. The unsettled conditions will continue to become more confined to the north and northwest by the end of the period.

Wednesday 27 Mar - Wednesday 11 Apr

The existing unsettled weather will likely become more confined to the north and northwest of the UK, with a greater chance of drier, brighter weather across southern and southeastern areas. These more settled and drier conditions may extend more widely across the UK through late March and into early April, although some more changeable spells are still likely, but there is low confidence as to their timing and detail. Temperatures through this period are likely to start near normal, but then trend towards normal or slightly above the seasonal average. This will give noticeably warmer days in early April, though some overnight frosts will still be possible.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Wet, breezy and cool at first, then drier

_________________________________

Saturday 9 March—Sunday 17 March

Wet and windy at times. Variable temperatures.

This weekend will be blustery and unsettled for most. Saturday will see a mixture of sunny spells and showers with a strong westerly wind. The showers will be most frequent in the west and north with some hail mixed-in. Snow showers for the hills of northwest Scotland. Often dry in the southeast, though. More prolonged showers and rain spreading from west to east on Saturday night with snow for upland parts of Scotland and northern England. Sunday will be another very blustery day. Any prolonged rain and upland snow should clear eastwards, leaving a strong and cold westerly wind through the day with showers.

The showers will be most frequent in the west and north-west, some wintry with snow mixed-in, mainly for hills but locally to low levels.
Monday will see a brief respite from the unsettled weather with a high pressure ridge bringing drier and brighter conditions for most for a time. However, further rain and strong winds look set to arrive from the Atlantic later on Monday, or overnight. The rest of next week is likely to remain unsettled with a strong jet stream moving over the UK at times. Further showers and bands of rain are likely to spread from west to east across the UK, occasionally accompanied by strong winds. Temperatures will be variable, alternating either side of the seasonal average.

Monday 18 March—Sunday 24 March

Turning less windy. Drier in the south.

We still expect to see a gradual change in the weather pattern after mid-month thanks to an area of high pressure that should move nearer to the UK. However, the first half of the week is still likely to be breezy at times with some showers or bands of rain moving in from the west. Later in the week, the showers and bands of rain should become less frequent with some lengthier calmer and drier periods of weather, particularly for the southern half of the country. The northern half of the UK could stay breezier and western Scotland is likely to remain quite wet throughout.
A gradual upturn in the temperatures is anticipated as the week progresses with some milder days likely.

Monday 25 March—Sunday 7 April

Mild. Driest and calmest in the south.

The end of March and start of April should see much drier and calmer conditions than recently for the southern half of the UK. We expect rainfall amounts to fall below the seasonal average in the south with an area of high pressure never too far away. For the northern half of the UK, the weather is likely to be more mixed with some fine and dry days but weather fronts from the north-west bringing wetter and breezier conditions at times. Overall, though, drier and less windy than recently. Rather mild or warm conditions are expected over the UK with temperatures often a little above the seasonal average. However, there is some uncertainty over where high pressure will be most often located. There is a slight chance that high pressure remains further to the south-west than expected, which would allow somewhat breezier and cooler conditions to persist. However, we currently anticipate a somewhat calmer and drier end to the month.

Next Update

Next update: It looks as though we will experience a mixed month of weather. We will take another look to see if we can expect a drier and calmer end to this month.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Outlook

Generally settled in south
Changeable in north
Temperatures around average

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/47548462

Met office

Monday 18 Mar - Wednesday 27 Mar

Dry for many on Monday with only isolated showers. Rain and strengthening winds reach the northwest by Tuesday, then spread to other northern and some central areas. Thereafter, the south remains largely dry. It will remain changeable, particularly in the north, with further spells of wind and rain, followed by drier, more showery periods. The wettest and windiest weather will always be most likely in the northwest, with the driest conditions for the south and southeast. Snow is likely in the north at times, mainly over higher ground. The unsettled conditions will become increasingly confined to the north and northwest towards the end of the month. Temperatures often near normal, with any warmer periods more likely in the south, whilst occasionally rather cold in the north.

Monday 18 Mar - Wednesday 27 Mar

Dry for many on Monday with only isolated showers. Rain and strengthening winds reach the northwest by Tuesday, then spread to other northern and some central areas. Thereafter, the south remains largely dry. It will remain changeable, particularly in the north, with further spells of wind and rain, followed by drier, more showery periods. The wettest and windiest weather will always be most likely in the northwest, with the driest conditions for the south and southeast. Snow is likely in the north at times, mainly over higher ground. The unsettled conditions will become increasingly confined to the north and northwest towards the end of the month. Temperatures often near normal, with any warmer periods more likely in the south, whilst occasionally rather cold in the north.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Wet and windy this week, but becoming drier

_________________________________

Wednesday 13 March—Sunday 17 March

Very windy this week with heavy rain in places.

The unsettled, wet and windy weather will continue for most of the rest of this week. It should finally start to settle down later this weekend, but it will become chillier. 'Storm Gareth' will be close enough to the UK on Wednesday to bring strong winds to many areas of the country, with showers and longer spells of rain too. Wednesday evening looks relatively dry, but the next Atlantic weather system will move in from the west on Wednesday night so most areas will have a wet start to Thursday. Thursday itself will see rain clearing to sunny spells and showers in most areas, but it will be another windy day.

There will be another brief respite on Thursday evening before another low pressure system moves in from the west of Friday. There is some uncertainty over the track of this low, but there is the potential for another spell of very wet and very windy weather. Friday's low will slowly move away on Friday night but yet another low is likely to move across the UK on Saturday. Sunday should bring improving conditions though, as a ridge of high pressure starts to build in from the south-west. Whilst it will become much drier and calmer on Sunday weather, it will become colder. Sunday night will be rather chilly and there may be a frost in some areas.

Monday 18 March—Sunday 24 March

Much less wet and windy for all areas.

A chilly start to next week with the chance of a frost on Monday morning and with daytime temperatures a bit below normal too. However, it will be much less windy and wet than it has been over recent days thanks to a ridge of high pressure which is expected to be situated close to or over the south of the UK. This ridge is expected to remain nearby for most of next week, so southern parts of the UK should see a lot more dry and calm weather than of late.

There will be the chance of some rain at times, but there will be a lot more dry weather. Temperatures should recover too, and by mid-week will be near normal for the time of year, perhaps a little above in places. The north of the UK will be furthest from the ridge of high pressure, so will have more changeable weather. Some rain is likely at times and it may become rather breezy, although it will not be as wet and windy as the current week. Temperatures will recover too after a chilly start to the week, returning to near normal for the time of year.

Monday 25 March—Sunday 7 April

Dry and mild in the south, changeable in the north

High pressure is expected to remain near or over the south of the UK during the last week of March. It should bring drier, calmer and slightly milder weather to most of England, Wales. However, Northern Ireland and Scotland will see rainfall and winds nearer normal, as the Atlantic keeps some influence on the weather across the north of the UK. There will be little change as we move into April, with southern areas generally drier, calmer and milder than normal, whilst northern areas see occasional rain.

As always when forecasting the weather at this range, there are alternate scenarios. In this case, the most likely alternative picture is that high pressure will remain a little further west than we expect it too. This would allow cooler, wetter and windier weather to extend from the north at times, with northern and eastern parts of the UK potentially becoming wetter than normal. There is a roughly 25% risk of this happening.

Next Update

Will there be any sign of anything interrupting the spring weather we're expecting at the end of March and start of April?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Met office 10 day trend

Next week

Calming down
Frosts return
Unsettled in north-west

Later next week

Much drier
Less windy
Maybe warming up

 

Outlook

Quieter
Settled in the south
Changeable in the north

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/47563594

Met office

Tuesday 19 Mar - Thursday 28 Mar

Tuesday will see some dry weather across central and southern parts of the UK with sunny spells and light winds. It will be cloudier and windier in the north and northwest with rain at times. Thereafter, the south remains largely dry with some sunny periods. It will remain changeable in the north, with spells of wind and rain, followed by drier, more showery periods. The wettest and windiest weather will always be most likely in the northwest. Snow is likely in the north at times, but mainly over the higher ground. The unsettled conditions will become increasingly confined to the far north and northwest towards the end of the month. Temperatures often near normal, with any warmer periods more likely in the south, whilst occasionally rather cold in the north.

Friday 29 Mar - Friday 13 Apr

The final few days of March will see a continuation of the predominantly settled and dry weather across the south of the UK, with and rain and unsettled spells most likely in the northwest. Overnight frost or fog are a risk in the south, with some chilly nights. As we head into April uncertainty increases but it seems most likely that we will see more changeable conditions become established across the UK, more so for northern parts. Temperatures are likely to start off mostly above average, but with a trend to return towards temperatures more typical for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

Outlook

More settled
High pressure building
Temperatures climbing

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/47577455

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

• Stormy weather subsides


• Drier and warmer spell


• Lingering frost risk

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers*  https://weathertrending.com/2019/03/15/john-hammond-month-ahead-calm-down/

*Subscription is free but you must sign up to view

Met office

Wednesday 20 Mar - Friday 29 Mar

Wednesday will be fine and dry across central and southern parts with sunny spells. Cloudier in the north and northwest with outbreaks of rain or drizzle over hills and a fresh wind for some. Thereafter, the south remains largely dry with some sunny periods. It will remain changeable in the north, with spells of wind and rain, followed by drier, more showery periods. The wettest and windiest weather will always be most likely in the northwest. Snow is likely in the north at times, but mainly over the higher ground. The unsettled conditions will become increasingly confined to the far north and northwest towards the end of the month. Temperatures often near normal, with any warmer periods more likely in the south, whilst occasionally rather cold in the north.

Saturday 30 Mar - Saturday 13 Apr

The final few days of March will see a continuation of the predominantly settled and dry weather across the south of the UK, with and rain and unsettled spells most likely in the northwest. Overnight frost or fog are a risk in the south, with some chilly nights. As we head into April uncertainty increases but it seems most likely that we will see more changeable conditions become established across the UK, more so for northern parts. Temperatures are likely to start off mostly above average, but with a trend to return towards temperatures more typical for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Settling down after a cool, wet, windy weekend

_________________________________

Saturday 16 March—Sunday 24 March

Becoming calmer after a windy weekend

The recent spell of very unsettled, wet and windy weather is about to come to an end, but not until after a deep area of low pressure has moved across the UK on Saturday. A ridge of high pressure will start to build in the south from Sunday, and this ridge will remain across the south of the UK for much of next week.

In more detail, a developing low pressure system will move eastwards across the UK on Saturday. The centre of the system will pass across Northern Ireland first, then move across southern Scotland and northern England. This weather system will bring another spell of wet and windy weather to many areas of the UK. Gales are possible in some areas, coupled with widespread, locally heavy rain. Central and northern Scotland should avoid the worst of the winds, but will be likely to see snow, this potentially down to low levels.

The low pressure system will move away on Saturday night and on Sunday, but it will be slow to do so, so Sunday is expected to be a windy day with sunny spells and heavy, blustery showers. Later on Sunday, a ridge of high pressure will start to build in from the west. This will mark the start of a spell of much calmer weather. The ridge will remain across the south of the UK for most of next week, so it will be much drier and calmer than it has been recently, although with occasional rain for some northern parts of the country. However, there could be a brief spell of unsettled weather next weekend. Sunday and Monday will be chilly days and there may be a frost in some areas each night. Temperatures will return to near normal, perhaps locally above normal, next week.

Monday 25 March—Sunday 31 March

Much less wet and windy for all areas

After the often wet and windy start to the month, March does indeed look likely to 'go out like a lamb'. High pressure is expected to remain nearby throughout the last week of March. It is most likely to be centred close to or over the south of the UK, but it may expand northwards at times. The upshot of this is that the southern half of the UK is likely to remain relatively settled and dry with light winds. The north of the country will also have some calm and dry weather, although there could be occasional spells of rain and it may become rather breezy at times. Temperatures will be near or a little above the average for the time of year.

The main alternative pattern for the end of March is that we could see low pressure areas developing over Scandinavia or the North Sea, moving into Central Europe. This would tend to make it breezier and cool for the UK and Ireland, with a chance of frequent showers in the north, these perhaps wintry on hills. However, there is a relatively low chance of this, with March much more likely to end on a relatively dry and settled note.

Monday 1 April—Sunday 14 April

Drier, calmer and a little warmer than normal

The most likely weather pattern for the start of April has high pressure lingering close to the UK. It looks most likely to be near the west of the country, blocking the usual eastwards progression of Atlantic weather systems. As a result, the first couple of weeks of April are most likely to be both drier and less windy than normal for the time of year, although still with a chance of spells of wetter, breezier weather for Scotland. It also looks a little warmer than usual in most areas.

However, as always when forecasting the weather at this range, we tend to see one or more alternate patterns. The main alternative to our expected picture is for the ridge of high pressure to stay further west, which would allow low pressure systems to move close to or just to the east of the UK. This would mean cooler, wetter and windier weather. There is also a chance that the ridge of high pressure will move to the north-east of the UK. This too would result in cooler and breezier weather, but it would remain relatively dry. There is a roughly 60/40% split between our most likely scenario and our two alternatives.

Next Update

Will high pressure cling on into the second half of April, or will we see some more traditional April showers?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Met office

Thursday 21 Mar Saturday 30 Mar

The south of the UK looks to remain largely dry, and it could perhaps be quite warm in some central and eastern parts of the UK, with sunny periods. However it will remain changeable in the north, with spells of wind, rain, and a risk of gales in places. The weekend may see unsettled weather become more widespread for a time. However, unsettled conditions will become increasingly confined to the far north and northwest towards the end of the month. Temperatures will be around the average for the time of year, although some warmer periods are likely in the south, whilst occasionally in the north it may be rather cold, with a risk of overnight frost, and perhaps some hill snow.

Sunday 31 Mar Sunday 14 Apr

As we head into April, the forecast looks more uncertain, but it seems most likely that we will see changeable conditions across the UK once again, with wet and windy weather interspersed with drier and brighter spells. By the middle of the month, we may see a return of more widely settled weather. Temperatures could potentially start off a little warmer than average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast