Thanks for that.

From what I can see there, I can see now that it is looking increasingly likely that my own guess for this month was far too low (I went for this month to be colder than January, but it is starting to look as though that is not likely to be the case) although it will still be interesting nevertheless, to see what actually happens.

It won’t spoil the thread for me though!  At least I’m taking part! 

Needs a very cool last week. !!!!!

On that basis, I'm sure that you would be a very good candidate for a job as a Met Office forecaster.

Doh!

I need a repeat of last year for the final week to get anywhere near my guess then... it won't happen I'm sure! I'll console myself with the thought of a reduced heating bill come March...

I was convinced we'd get a decent cold spell looks like we're getting a decent warm spell instead. 

In any case, it usually turns cold and snowy when we’re going on holiday and we’ve got to drive to the airport to catch a flight that’s then delayed due to snow - as per 1st March last year!  This year we fly on 18th Feb and I’ve booked us into an airport hotel for the night before, just in case!  Maybe our flight won’t be delayed due to snow after all!  

Met Office Hadley      4.4c.    Anomaly    0.1c. Provisional to 10th.

Metcheck                  4.2c     Anomaly    -0.2c

Netweather               5.01c    Anomaly    0.82c

Linford                      5.8c     Anomaly     01.1c

Forest Town Mansfield 4.4c    Anomaly    0.1c

Peasedown St John   6.6c    Anomaly   2.35c

Treviskey Redruth   6.9c  Anomaly  0.27c.

Mean of my 10  5.27c Anomaly  0.72c.     

So, normal service is resumed once again with a return to a milder than average CET average.

The only surprise here is that it took so long for that to actually happen but then, that just shows you how cold this month was to begin with (although that is only a fading and distant memory now).

Met Office Hadley         4.4c.    Anomaly      0.2c. Provisional to 11th.

Metcheck                      4.50c.   Anomaly     0.30c

Netweather                   5.01c    Anomaly     0.82c

Clevedon Weather          6.3c     Anomaly     -0.37c

Linford                          5.5       Anomaly     0.8c

Mount Sorrel                 4.1c      Anomaly     0.45c

Treviskey Redruth          6.6c      Anomaly     0.3c.

4 Stations lower  Mean of 10  5.24c Anomaly  0.69c.     

Exactly Caz. I've gone for 4.5C this month - Now I've gone too low.

Anyway - it's all good fun.

I've gone for just a fraction below 5C. If I could make my prediction again I'd go for half a degree higher, perhaps even a bit more than that. But overall I'm reasonably happy with this. It would only take the upcoming very mild spell to not be quite as mild as expected, folowed by a reasonably cold end to the month (still far too far away to know with any confidence) then my prediction might still be pretty close.

My 5.2c looks 'safer' compared to the surprising number of competitors that have gone lower this month.

My technique is to think of a number and then add 1c. ...simples !

Col, Steve, it certainly looks like you’ll both be closer than me.   

This mild spell will add a few digits, especially if nights are as mild as last night!  It may even exceed all expectations and get higher than anyone predicted.  A late cold spell would have to produce ice days to bring it down to my level and I can’t see that happening!  

My technique is to pluck a number out of thin air.  It obviously doesn’t work!  

I think, my mistake here was in forgetting that a colder than average winter month is usually always asking for too much these days in this modern era of the Great British winter (not that there's usually ever anything all that "Great" about our winters nowadays, anyway). That is something which I have mentioned in a number of other threads on this forum on a number of occasions whilst discussing my own local conditions here in Edinburgh, and that is clearly the case when it comes to the CET as well.

The fact that this month is turning out to be so mild and therefore possibly produce an even higher CET than what anyone had predicted will in the end, show us just how poor this so-called "winter" has been overall, at least in terms of the CET.

Met Office Hadley         4.6c.     Anomaly      0.4c.  provisional to 12th.

Metcheck                      4.80c    Anomaly      0.60c

Netweather                   5.12c    Anomaly      0.93c

Canvey Island                6.1c     Anomaly      0.7c

Clevedon Weather          6.5c     Anomaly       0.57c

Forest Town Mansfield     5.0c     Anomaly       0.7c

Peasedown St John         6.9c     Anomaly       2.65c

Treviskey Redruth           6.9c     Anomaly       0.27c.

Mena of my 10 stations 5.46c.  Anomaly   0.91c.     

The rules state that you can miss no more than two months in a year to stay in the comp.  So if anyone else wants to join in, March is their last chance to be in the annual cometition!  

[edit]  Copied from the January thread:

Missed predictions

If a person participating in the annual CET competition does not make a prediction in any one month (including January) their prediction error for that month will be calculated as follows:

- the upper quartile (75th percentile) of the prediction errors of all the people in the annual competition who did make a prediction for that month will be calculated at the end of the month;

The result of the above calculation will be used as the CET prediction error for any person who misses a prediction in a particular month subject to one further point:

- If, for any person, their average monthly prediction error for all the previous months in the year to date is higher than the 75th percentile of errors (for those that did make a prediction) in the month the person in question made no prediction, then the average prediction error will be substituted instead of the 75th percentile figure. This override is only likely to apply to those people towards the foot of the table who have very made very large errors in previous months.

One final important point. If you want to be included in the year long competition you may not miss more than two predictions during a calendar year. If a third prediction is missed that person will be eliminated from the annual competition (otherwise it would mean 25% or more of the annual error being calculated on non-existent predictions which would reduce the credibility of the competition too much). However, that person can continue to make predictions for the purpose of the monthly competition.

......and on that note, I’m off to Goa at the weekend and won’t be home for the start of the March comp.  I don’t bother with internet on holiday - that gets a holiday too!  So I’d better get my entry in early!  

Thing is snowman, you could easily have been right given the MetO longer outlooks maintained at the end of Jan. And in any case, having a few wildcard options adds to the fun!

Met Office Hadley     4.8c.      Anomaly      0.7c. Provisional to 13th.

Metcheck                  4.86c     Anomaly      0.66c

Netweather               5.36c     Anomaly      1.17c

Clevedon Weather      6.6c       Anomaly       0.67c

Peasedown St John     7.1c      Anomaly       2.85c

Treviskey Redruth       6.9c      Anomaly       0.27c.

Mean of my 10 Stations 5.68c  Anomaly     1.13c.