depends if the signal for cold pops up again only stronger. They will still simply follow their model and go by this - no one can predict with any confidence. If it disappears then lucky guess

Would be furious if this was the case! - a few miles away from Exeter and they get 5-10cms and Exeter get's cold rain!???

Mind you this is still an upgrade from yesterdays forecast which was for no accumulations of snow at all and this morning they were going for 1-3cms and now Chris Fawkes has gone for 5 to 10cms of snow! Except Exeter? I know it is just how it is in times stamp but would be an almighty failure if most of the country got 5 -10cms when EXETER saw cold rain!?

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We'll soon find out. It's all good fun it doesn't matter if us amateurs get it wrong. I'm going very cold Spring,  very hot summer.

 

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That would do me. As long as it's dry. Cricket last summer was magnificent with just one rained off game in the whole summer. Unheard of in this neck of the woods.

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Until they read it in the Telegraph most of the general public won't even know the MetO issued a monthly outlook     But I agree, some bored hack is sure to point it out next time the news breaks that someone at the MetO gets a pay rise for their excellent, life saving, work cyclone tracking in the eastern pacific.

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Met Office 10 day trend:

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Warnings out for freezing fog tonight across large parts of England.

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So basically, it is going to get milder......The Met Office text forecast will continue to backtrack. Not a chance of an Easterly dominated month, in fact, I doubt we will see much in the way of winds from the East all month. More likely an Atlantic dominated February. Proves how poor the LRFs have been this winter - the winter that never was!

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I have to say that yellow area is very poorly defined up here - the Vale of York has narrowed considerably.

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Part of me has recently been wishing that I had thought to save the daily MetO outlooks from much of February last year. My recollection is that they stuck solidly with the arrival of the Beast at the end of the month even during the few days around mid-month when the GFS and ECM runs were wobbling somewhat.

What I remember the most from that period was one evening in mid-Feb when the GFS 12z brought the atlantic back for the end of the month and Ian Brown said "It'd game over for this easterly". The ECM 12z must have heard him as it then showed the Beast moving in!

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Met 10 day trend..

https://youtu.be/LE4aK5phKTo

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The same met office which were going on about easterly winds for weeks now saying southwesterly winds later next week with no real signs of an easterly

Hmm...

The backtrack continues apace. Watch the written LRF continue to change to milder over the next few days. Game over for February and after Tomorrow that is your lot for much of the country.

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Not the right thread for discussing the models & it is in far off FI anyway, but this chart from the GFS 12z op run earlier this evening would suggest otherwise:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=12&time=360&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

 

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Bring it on - either the LOW is taking more of a southerly track or the rain looks heavier to produce evaporative cooling and turn rain to snow even as far south as Plymouth, south Devon?

 

 

I'll take that any day!  - But law of sods is that we will get a sleety mixture of rain to snow and wet snow with ground too wet for snow to settle!

 

NOW Look at this upgrade for the south on Friday? Additional and more prolonged snow showers across the south - maybe to top up' additional snow cover? - This would be x2 to days snow would be falling in the south if this verifies and this persistent area of snow in the south was not well picked up by models and or any BBC forecast a few days ago! - Plus remember the weather for the week ahead end of last week or was it Sunday? When I asked one member if they knew her name? - Well, it was Alina Jenkins and she said it will most likely turn milder by end of next week (now this week!) - When in fact the milder sector lost the war and the LP is sinking southwards on Thursday night, linger off English channel and heading into France and Bay of Biscay and NOT going northwards!! Below pic demonstrates this well! The Met Office are poor at calling an easterly but well done to the Met office short to medium-range about low's taking southerly tracks into the bay of biscay and as they move northwards at times saying the fact that there could be more significant rain or snow!

If tomorrow does materialise and we are lucky then tomorrow 31st Jan - tomorrow could be the first time the south west has seen significant snow in January since January 2013.  - Since then all we have seen at best are sleet showers, Jan 2016, Jan 2018 but never any significant snow mid winter (Jan). Tomorrow is the last day of mid winter (31st) - can we do this for the first time since Jan 2013?

Pic below as alluded to above? Where did this spell of more prolonged snow come from for the south?

What do you make of this Rob - Hampshire guy?

 

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What is interesting IMO is that the most recent montly outlook issued by the BBC is still going for cold from mid-February. I remember someone saying some weeks ago that of the updates issued by the two forecasters this winter, those written by the BBC/Meteogroup have been nearer the mark in terms of what has actually happened. The BBC, I seem to recall, were somewhat less keen back in late November/early December on early winter cold compared to what was said in the MetO outlooks at the time.

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Didn't know if I shared this but interesting esp his last sentence:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/47006603 

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Prankster dupes BBC weather forecaster by sending in snow picture claiming his name is 'I C Rhodes'

A prankster duped a weather forecaster on the BBC by pretending his name was “I C Rhodes”. BBC Weather’s Simon King was talking to viewers about the UK’s frosty forecast on Tuesday in front of a background which showed a road blanketed in snow in Strathaven.

However, eagle-eyed viewers noticed the picture was sent in by a prankster called “I C Rhodes”. The windup was branded “genius” by some on social media, while another wrote: “A photo of a snowy road has been sent in by ‘I C Rhodes’. I think the BBC have been had here.”

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/prankster-dupes-bbc-weather-forecaster-by-sending-in-snow-picture-claiming-his-name-is-i-c-rhodes/ar-BBSXE8v?li=BBoPWjQ&ocid=ACERDHP17

I can see some backtracking going on. Simon King at 730ish said disruptive snow later today to include London and the south East. At 930ish he is now saying not certain how much snow greater London will get. By the end of the day he may be saying get out your shorts as the temperatures will be at record levels 🙂

Amber warning for heavy snow just issued 🙂

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I think the two posts above now illustrate the issue of having a national weather service but the national TV service getting there data from elsewhere.

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Met office

UK Outlook for Tuesday 5 Feb 2019 to Thursday 14 Feb 2019:

Through the middle and end of next week it will be less cold than we have had recently, but still with frost and ice likely overnight. Weather fronts will bring bands of rain and hill snow from the north and west, which will tend to peter out as they reach southeastern parts of the UK. Between these spells of wet weather there will be drier and brighter periods. The wind will be brisk at times, with gales around exposed coasts and over higher ground. Towards the middle of February, it may become more settled with longer spells of drier weather. However, northwestern areas are still likely to see rain and probably hill snow at times. Temperatures will be around normal for the time of year, with some overnight frosts.

UK Outlook for Friday 15 Feb 2019 to Friday 1 Mar 2019:

Generally cold conditions are often likely to dominate the weather through mid to late February, however confidence is low. The weather is likely to be a mixture of cold days with wintry showers, and more persistently wet days when Atlantic fronts bring rain and milder interludes across the UK. Towards late February there is the possibility of a colder spell brought to the UK by winds from the east, however it is too early to say for sure, and there is also a chance that milder wetter weather will continue to arrive from the Atlantic.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

So the mention of turning colder at the end of the first period has now disappeared, and instead "temperatures will be around normal". The ferret has almost competed its reverse.

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All of this of course has no influence on the weather we'll get for the remainder of the winter, I really don't take any notice of these 30 dayers. (he says typing on the thread discussing them)  

Last years late winter Easterlies were great, so good in fact id swap it this year for an early Spring 

Another measured but very significant change in the Met long ranger today. No criticism intended because I try and call the good and bad! This winter still has 4 weeks to run but it's now possible Dec/Jan/Feb could all be above CET. From recollection I think most of the independent European agencies / forecasters also favoured an average to cold UK winter, so the Met weren't out on a limb by any means. 

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