What is interesting IMO is that the most recent montly outlook issued by the BBC is still going for cold from mid-February. I remember someone saying some weeks ago that of the updates issued by the two forecasters this winter, those written by the BBC/Meteogroup have been nearer the mark in terms of what has actually happened. The BBC, I seem to recall, were somewhat less keen back in late November/early December on early winter cold compared to what was said in the MetO outlooks at the time.

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Didn't know if I shared this but interesting esp his last sentence:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/47006603 

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I can see some backtracking going on. Simon King at 730ish said disruptive snow later today to include London and the south East. At 930ish he is now saying not certain how much snow greater London will get. By the end of the day he may be saying get out your shorts as the temperatures will be at record levels 🙂

Amber warning for heavy snow just issued 🙂

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I think the two posts above now illustrate the issue of having a national weather service but the national TV service getting there data from elsewhere.

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Met office

UK Outlook for Tuesday 5 Feb 2019 to Thursday 14 Feb 2019:

Through the middle and end of next week it will be less cold than we have had recently, but still with frost and ice likely overnight. Weather fronts will bring bands of rain and hill snow from the north and west, which will tend to peter out as they reach southeastern parts of the UK. Between these spells of wet weather there will be drier and brighter periods. The wind will be brisk at times, with gales around exposed coasts and over higher ground. Towards the middle of February, it may become more settled with longer spells of drier weather. However, northwestern areas are still likely to see rain and probably hill snow at times. Temperatures will be around normal for the time of year, with some overnight frosts.

UK Outlook for Friday 15 Feb 2019 to Friday 1 Mar 2019:

Generally cold conditions are often likely to dominate the weather through mid to late February, however confidence is low. The weather is likely to be a mixture of cold days with wintry showers, and more persistently wet days when Atlantic fronts bring rain and milder interludes across the UK. Towards late February there is the possibility of a colder spell brought to the UK by winds from the east, however it is too early to say for sure, and there is also a chance that milder wetter weather will continue to arrive from the Atlantic.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

So the mention of turning colder at the end of the first period has now disappeared, and instead "temperatures will be around normal". The ferret has almost competed its reverse.

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So the mention of turning colder at the end of the first period has now disappeared, and instead "temperatures will be around normal". The ferret has almost competed its reverse.

All of this of course has no influence on the weather we'll get for the remainder of the winter, I really don't take any notice of these 30 dayers. (he says typing on the thread discussing them)  

Last years late winter Easterlies were great, so good in fact id swap it this year for an early Spring 

Another measured but very significant change in the Met long ranger today. No criticism intended because I try and call the good and bad! This winter still has 4 weeks to run but it's now possible Dec/Jan/Feb could all be above CET. From recollection I think most of the independent European agencies / forecasters also favoured an average to cold UK winter, so the Met weren't out on a limb by any means. 

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Another measured but very significant change in the Met long ranger today. No criticism intended because I try and call the good and bad! This winter still has 4 weeks to run but it's now possible Dec/Jan/Feb could all be above CET. From recollection I think most of the independent European agencies / forecasters were also favouring an average to cold UK winter, so the Met weren't out on a limb by any means. 

The writing was on the wall a week ago IMO. Lessons will no doubt be learnt and implemented into future modelling.

The writing was on the wall a week ago IMO. Lessons will no doubt be learnt and implemented into future modelling.

Indeed. One thing I've noticed a lot in the last 12 months is the GEFS has often shown a pattern locking in for 16 days but then "bumps in the road" appear at short notice. It was the same last summer when bursts of warmth (mainly in the south during July and early August) bubbled up. I would put money on the ECM ensembles being very similar and that will be the main reason the Met have doggedly kept the cold outlook until now.  

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Another measured but very significant change in the Met long ranger today. No criticism intended because I try and call the good and bad! This winter still has 4 weeks to run but it's now possible Dec/Jan/Feb could all be above CET. From recollection I think most of the independent European agencies / forecasters also favoured an average to cold UK winter, so the Met weren't out on a limb by any means. 

Not just possible but more likely than not, I would say. The first two weeks of Feb look nailed on to be above average, and I've certainly gone well above average with my Feb guess in the CET competition. The second half of the month could scupper that, but I have a feeling it won't.

 

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Some other events close by for some people over the weekend largely not getting much attention due to tonight's interest. Not seen much evidence of this but my local says....

 

Outlook for Saturday to Monday: Weather becoming less cold but markedly more uncertain. Sunshine and wintry showers Saturday. Sunday starting dry, but rain, sleet and snow possible later. Probably unsettled on Monday. Overnight frosts continuing. Updated: 12:32 on Thu 31 Jan 2019 GMT

 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/mobile/forecast/u12cdh7vk#?date=2019-02-02

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Not just possible but more likely than not, I would say. The first two weeks of Feb look nailed on to be above average, and I've certainly gone well above average with my Feb guess in the CET competition. The second half of the month could scupper that, but I have a feeling it won't.

 

Yes it looks like the Yanks have scuppered our chances of anything severely cold this winter now after the next 24 hours its looking average winter fare with temps average or maybe slightly above.

All very disappointing as it promised so much but has delivered pretty well nothing really in my area of the Midlands.

Next week

Little less cold
Windy at times
Spells of rain
Hill snow in north

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/47081768

Next week

Little less cold
Windy at times
Spells of rain
Hill snow in north

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/47081768

Stav also had a Scandi High at the end and said cold air never too far away so stay tuned. Deeper shades of blue over central and eastern Europe were moving West.....hmmmm

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Met office

UK Outlook for Wednesday 6 Feb 2019 to Friday 15 Feb 2019:

From the middle of next week, it will become less cold than recently, with night frost and ice risk retreating to the north. Weather fronts will bring bands of rain and strong winds to the west, which will tend to peter out as they reach some eastern parts. Any snow will be on Scottish mountains. The wind will be brisk at times, with gales around exposed coasts and over higher ground. Between these spells of wet weather there will be drier and brighter periods. Towards the middle of February, longer spells of drier weather become more likely. However, northwestern areas are still likely to see rain and perhaps hill snow at times. Temperatures will be around normal for the time of year, with some overnight frosts at times.

UK Outlook for Friday 15 Feb 2019 to Friday 1 Mar 2019:

Generally cold conditions are often likely to dominate the weather through mid to late February, however confidence is low. The weather is likely to be a mixture of cold days with wintry showers, and more persistently wet days when Atlantic fronts bring rain and milder interludes across the UK. Towards late February there is the possibility of a colder spell brought to the UK by winds from the east, however it is too early to say for sure, and there is also a chance that milder wetter weather will continue to arrive from the Atlantic.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

That outlook for the longer term wasn't updated, but it has been now:

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Have to laugh at "however it is too early to say for sure" considering they have been saying it for about seven weeks now!

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