Not just Trump though, many many Americans on my FB often comment with the "Got another dose of GW last night lol"

 

 

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BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Staying unsettled and cold at times

Wednesday 30 January—Sunday 3 February

A cold end to the week with a chance of snow

The weather will remain chilly and changeable for the rest of this week. On Wednesday, many areas of the UK will be dry with some winter sunshine, although there will be wintry showers for north-west Scotland. Wintry showers could also affect parts of Wales, Northern Ireland and a few showers are possible in some western counties of England. It will be a cool day despite any sunshine. Wednesday night will be a cold night with a widespread frost.

Thursday will see a weather system moving in from the Atlantic. There is some uncertainty over the exact details, but there will be a chance of snow as this system pushes bands of rain into the cold air lying over the UK. Central and southern parts of the UK are most likely to see snow, this mainly on Thursday afternoon, evening and night. Other parts of the country will be relatively dry and chilly.

Friday could see further rain and snow affecting the country as Thursday's low lingers. The best chance of dry and bright weather will be in the west. It will be a cold start to the coming weekend, with some showers likely on Saturday but with some sunshine too. We should see Atlantic weather systems moving in from the west later in the weekend, although Sunday looks to be largely dry. Sunday night will be cloudier and so doesn't look as cold but could still see a frost in some northern and eastern areas. Chance of rain in the west.

Monday 4 February—Sunday 10 February

A little less cold but staying unsettled

The weather will remain changeable next week as we continue to see weather systems moving in from the Atlantic. These systems will bring showers and more widespread rain to many areas of the country, although there will be some drier and calmer spells of weather too. The start of next week is likely to be chilly, although it should be less cold than this week. The trend for next week is for temperatures to rise a little to near or perhaps locally a little above normal for the time of year. This is mainly due to broadly westerly winds, which should replace the north-westerly winds we've seen so often in recent weeks.

Although we expect our weather to be coming in from the west, we will be watching developments over north-eastern and eastern Europe very closely. There is a chance that there will be an intensification of the area of high pressure currently sitting over north-eastern Scandinavia and Russia. This could have two effects on our weather. It would slow the progress of Atlantic weather systems, making it colder but probably drier and less windy for the UK. It could also generate easterly winds across eastern and central Europe, sending cold air towards western Europe. Although we think there is a slight chance of this happening this early in February, it is more likely to occur around the middle of the month.

Monday 11 February—Sunday 24 February

Chance of colder weather setting in

There is an increasing risk of significant cold weather as we move through the middle of February. This is because we expect the high pressure currently situated over Scandinavia to shift westwards towards north-west Europe. The effects of this are similar to those described for the first full week of February i.e. reduced 'mild' westerly winds from the Atlantic, and an increasing chance of cold east or north-easterly winds reaching the UK. If this happens there will be an increased risk of snow and ice affecting the UK.

Although the risk of cold weather has increased, it is by no means certain. There is a chance that the Scandinavian high pressure area will remain less of a feature, leaving the UK in a cool and unsettled pattern with winds coming in from the west or north-west. There is a roughly 30% chance of this, underlining that the forecast for this period of the winter remain rather uncertain.

Next Update

The chances of cold weather for the middle and end of February should be a little clearer.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

“There is an increasing risk of significant cold weather as we move through the middle of February.“

That would suggest forecasters are becoming more, not less, confident about cold weather for late February, contrary to the imminent “climb-down” expected by some.

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'Don't breathe or go outside': Americans told as polar vortex freezes US

Americans are being told to limit their breathing and the amount of time they spend outside as temperatures in parts of the country are forecast to drop as low as -70C (-94F).

In Minnesota, where temperatures could drop as low as -70C (-94F) because of wind chills, the local National Weather Service office (NWS) tweeted an ominous warning.

"These are VERY DANGEROUS conditions and can lead to frostbite on exposed skin in as little as five minutes where wind chill values are below

https://news.sky.com/story/dont-breathe-or-go-outside-americans-told-as-polar-vortex-freezes-us-11622160

 

I wish the media would learn the difference between temperature and windchill. It will not be getting anywhere close to -70C. The record low for the contiguous USA is -57C. Even Alaska hasn't ever got below -62C.

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I can just see thousands of fat Americans sat inside their centrally heated homes holding their breath so they don't die ..... 

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You can see inside the Whitehouse?

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Met office

UK Outlook for Monday 4 Feb 2019 to Wednesday 13 Feb 2019:

Rain and hill snow will clear later on Monday, however further rain, sleet and snow will possibly arrive from the west on Tuesday. It will stay mostly cold, with frost and ice likely overnight. Thereafter, it is likely to stay changeable, with further spells of rain, sleet and snow interspersed by sunshine and showers. The wind will be brisk at times, with gales around exposed coasts and over higher ground. After a cold start to February, temperatures may temporarily return closer to normal, although further colder interludes are still possible. Overnight frosts are still likely to be widespread and towards the end of this period there is a greater chance of it becoming even colder.

UK Outlook for Thursday 14 Feb 2019 to Thursday 28 Feb 2019:

Generally cold conditions are often likely to dominate the weather through mid to late February, however confidence is low. The weather is likely to be a mixture of cold wintry, showery days and more mobile days with Atlantic fronts bringing rain across the UK, and occasional milder interludes remain possible. Towards late February there is the possibility of a colder, more easterly flow developing, though the signal for this has decreased in recent days.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

So, the climbdown many expected yesterday has arrived today instead. Better late than never!

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they voted him in!

A measured but notable and significant shift in the Met long ranger today.  

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It will no doubt turn considerably colder now they've launched that update ...

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In Line with Met Office .

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Finally the Met Office have woken up ha! I am not bothered about the 2nd part of text anymore as it's too far out and we have plenty of wintry weather between now and day 15.  THE good news is that it will stay cold with less cold interludes and they stress above 'towards the end of the period there is a greater chance of it becoming even colder' - that takes us up until 13th February.

 

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Its about time the MetO smelt the coffee, back to the drawing board for GLOSEA.😁

Met Office: Re Thursday's snow:

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Local Beeb forecast was more bullish about tomorrow night. Suggested 3 to 7cms possible. Compare that to the national, which is trending probably worse than last night's IMO, with next to nothing turning up. 

Think it's going to be one of those winters again!

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As I said. They will gradually water this down, slowly but surely, so they avoid being ridiculed by most of the general public. This climbdown has been long in arriving but will slowly but surely gather pace and drop the cold ideas. This time next week it will be all but gone.

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Let's hope for an early spring to erase the memory of the Winter That Could Have Been. I've gone mild for the CET competition for Feb 

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I'm not in it but if I were I'd go mild to very mild too. My next hope, and it is only hope, is that 2019 will be another belter of  summer. With the dryish winter we are having I am hoping that 2018/2019 will match the summers of 1975/1976 and give us back to back belters. Knowing our miserable climate though this summer will probably be like the one that followed 2006 and be a 2007 style washout. Let's hope not!!

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If you are proved correct, then hats off to you.

However, if come the end of February you have been proved wrong, then you better be ready for a backlash Kieren!

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You know me David. I would LOVE to be wrong and face a backlash. I'll go and get my tin hat ready just in case.

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My hunch is that the Met update will actually flip cold again very soon looking at the ECM and GFS ensembles its odds on a decent Scandi high in the next 10 to 15 days. I'd punt for a sub 2.5c cet.

 

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Hope you are right but I doubt it very much.

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Most here have said for weeks that the MetO long rangers were completely out of synch with what the short terms models were showing post 7-10 days. It’s been an abysmal fail and highlights all too well the follies of forecasting beyond seven days. At the end of the day beyond the seven day timeframe they’re no bettter than most in here and that’s not a dig at them but how long range forecasting in general is a crock of sh*t.