https://youtu.be/ThuIt2EvrO0?t=1346

Originally Posted by: stophe 

A cold, bright and frosty start to Sunday, but cloud will probably start to edge in from the west, bringing rain, with risk of sleet and hill snow. This will tend to ease before it reaches northern and eastern areas, so here it may remain brighter. Thereafter, the weather is likely to remain changeable with further spells of rain, sleet and snow, interspersed by sunshine and showers. Winds will be brisk at times with gales around the coasts. After a cold start to February, temperatures may temporarily return closer to normal, particularly across the south, whilst northern parts are likely to remain cold. Overnight frosts are still likely to be widespread and towards the end of this period there is a greater chance of it becoming even colder.

Cold or very cold conditions are often likely to dominate the weather throughout this period, with a greater than average chance of easterly or northeasterly winds becoming established. This would bring an enhanced risk of snow, as well as widespread and occasionally severe frosts, although the exact details remain very uncertain. In this setup, the driest and brightest weather is likely in the north and northwest. Despite the prevalence of cold weather, occasional milder interludes remain possible, most likely in the south, but this poses the risk of significant snow should very cold conditions become established.

Originally Posted by: Arcus 

Met O's Updated text forecast: - A slight change/downgrade...? - It was inevitable anyway.

UK Outlook for Sunday 3 Feb 2019 to Tuesday 12 Feb 2019:

A cold, bright and frosty start to Sunday, but cloud, outbreaks of rain and hill snow may spread in later. Despite this, some areas may remain fine and mainly dry throughout. Thereafter, the weather is often likely to remain changeable with further spells of rain, sleet and snow, interspersed by sunshine and showers. Winds will be brisk at times with gales around exposed coasts and hills. After a cold start to February, temperatures may temporarily return closer to normal, particularly across the south, whilst northern parts are likely to remain cold. Overnight frosts are still likely to be widespread and towards the end of this period there is a greater chance of it becoming even colder.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 13 Feb 2019 to Wednesday 27 Feb 2019:

Generally cold conditions are often likely to dominate the weather through mid to late February with the potential for some periods where winds are coming from the east. In the setup the weather is likely to be mixed with spells of showery rain, sleet and some snow most likely across the south and east, with northern and western parts perhaps more likely to be drier. Despite the prevalence of mainly cold weather, occasional milder interludes remain possible.

Updated: 14:24 on Tue 29 Jan 2019 GMT

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

Geez they don’t know when to give up. 😂😂

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

If they are not seeing clear & consistent signals that make them change their outlook, why should they change anything?

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

Well they've tweaked the longer range outlook this afternoon (as Tally has posted) from the earlier one  - cold rather than very cold?

Originally Posted by: Arcus 

Seems a much more sensible outlook and still good in many ways.

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

Actually this is quite a backtrack. As I suggested yesterday, the backtrack will be written slowly over a number of days.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Revised 16 to 30 day update

UK Outlook for Wednesday 13 Feb 2019 to Wednesday 27 Feb 2019:

Generally cold conditions are often likely to dominate the weather through mid to late February with the potential for some periods where winds are coming from the east. In the setup the weather is likely to be mixed with spells of showery rain, sleet and some snow most likely across the south and east, with northern and western parts perhaps more likely to be drier. Despite the prevalence of mainly cold weather, occasional milder interludes remain possible.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

Well they've tweaked the longer range outlook this afternoon (as Tally has posted) from the earlier one  - cold rather than very cold?

Originally Posted by: Arcus 

It will? What does tomorrow''s update say and how are tomorrow's models looking?

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

Yep, slight backtrack but a backtrack nonetheless. I expect the weather to continue much the same for the next two weeks at least short milder spells interspersed with rather cold ones. Standard winter fayre and certainly nothing to write home about. Roll on spring.

Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 

I don't see how you label it as a 'backtrack'. Surely all they do is reflect in the written forecast what their long-range ensemble-based models are showing?  The word 'adjustment' describes the process without the judgemental tone implicit in 'backtrack'.

Anyone not wanting cold weather would describe the change as 'a welcome improvement'

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

IMO, a cold February is still very much on the table.  Granted that the forecasts were wide of the mark for January but crititisms of the METO have been founded on models at 168hrs+ which we all know are on extremely dodgy ground after the SSW.  Surely the outlook is only predictable at this range in strong zonal setups.  Also I hasten to add, the Met bulletins in the last week have included the very crafty caveat: 'and IF very cold conditions were to occur there may be snow at times' or words to that effect.' 

It is easier to see mild coming than it is cold and the Met guys are subject to this truth to some degree as well us amateurs are.  As the models stand at this time I think the main issue is that the threat is from the east rather than from the north east or north as inititually stated.

Originally Posted by: UncleAlbert 

US to shiver in 'once-in-a-generation' polar vortex

The US will shiver this week in a once-in-a-generation deep freeze, forecasters warn. The most extreme arctic blasts, caused by a spinning pool of cold air known as the polar vortex, could bring temperatures as low as -53C (-64F).

Weather officials in the state of Iowa have warned people to "avoid taking deep breaths, and to minimise talking" if they go outside. At least 55 million people are forecast to experience below zero temperatures.

A state of emergency has been declared in the Midwestern states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Illinois as well as in the normally more clement southern states of Alabama and Mississippi.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-47047089?ns_linkname=news_central&ns_campaign=bbc_weather&ns_source=twitter&ns_mchannel=social

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

It’s really annoying how the extreme cold always seems to hit the US. You only have to look at Trump’s idiotic tweets about global warming to see the effect it has.

Originally Posted by: Rob K