Yes that makes sense.

Easy though to fall into the trap of thinking that 70% of the time this forecast is correct instead. 

Originally Posted by: Stolen Snowman 

Looks like mostly rain tomorrow for Exeter and then a rapid change to snow around 3pm looking at that large white blob as forecast by BBC but by 6pm the precipitation would have already cleared but looks like it may linger in central and south eastern areas: - He said accumulations of 2-5cms even at lower levels. However, It depends how heavy precipitation will be for any evaporative cooling at 1500z.

Looks like the south east is where the snow will be the most significant with cold air to the north from another font colliding with the low coming in from the west moving across all of southern England! So looks like a brief transient snow event in Devon between 1500 and 1800 hours but snow lasting perhaps between 1800 and 12:00 am in many parts of the central southern and south eastern areas.

Looks like the cold air has already under cut that warmer sector as it's already snowing as far south as Plymouth by 1500 when most of N.E Devon and East Devon, south SOmerset and west Dorset still sees rain - I will keep you all updated here in Devon tomorrow as the band of snow (if any) from same frontal system will hit Devon first.

However, BBC graphics (as always) are really poor. So will check Met Office rainfall radar,.

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

The stupidity of some of these forecasters really annoys me. BBC local radio in my area this morning, Bee Tucker comes on and says, we are waking up to no frost today as temperatures are only just below freezing? Say what? Listen to what you are saying!!! Temps below freezing = frost. My window was very iced up on my car. Think before you speak!!!

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

The stupidity of some of these forecasters really annoys me. BBC local radio in my area this morning, Bee Tucker comes on and says, we are waking up to no frost today as temperatures are only just below freezing? Say what? Listen to what you are saying!!! Temps below freezing = frost. My window was very iced up on my car. Think before you speak!!!

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Just because it is below zero doesn’t always mean you will get visible frost. If the air is dry then surfaces still might not reach the dew point and so no frost. (It’s like that here this morning, a tiny bit of white in places on the grass but no frost on cars etc.)

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

New warnings out for Thursday/Friday which at the moment poses a greater risk than this evening and over a wider area.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

So we have gone from "a low chance" to "a greater chance" of easterlies? I'm even more confused now.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

So we have gone from "a low chance" to "a greater chance" of easterlies? I'm even more confused now.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Watch the Met office with Adian McGiven Live:

https://youtu.be/ThuIt2EvrO0

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

Watch the Met office with Adian McGiven Live:

https://youtu.be/ThuIt2EvrO0

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

Did anyone just pick up on what the Met office meteorologist  guest Jenny said? re the longer range weather as we head further into Feb?

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

A cold, bright and frosty start to Sunday, but cloud will probably start to edge in from the west, bringing rain, with risk of sleet and hill snow. This will tend to ease before it reaches northern and eastern areas, so here it may remain brighter. Thereafter, the weather is likely to remain changeable with further spells of rain, sleet and snow, interspersed by sunshine and showers. Winds will be brisk at times with gales around the coasts. After a cold start to February, temperatures may temporarily return closer to normal, particularly across the south, whilst northern parts are likely to remain cold. Overnight frosts are still likely to be widespread and towards the end of this period there is a greater chance of it becoming even colder.

Cold or very cold conditions are often likely to dominate the weather throughout this period, with a greater than average chance of easterly or northeasterly winds becoming established. This would bring an enhanced risk of snow, as well as widespread and occasionally severe frosts, although the exact details remain very uncertain. In this setup, the driest and brightest weather is likely in the north and northwest. Despite the prevalence of cold weather, occasional milder interludes remain possible, most likely in the south, but this poses the risk of significant snow should very cold conditions become established.

Originally Posted by: Arcus