If they are not seeing clear & consistent signals that make them change their outlook, why should they change anything?

Well they've tweaked the longer range outlook this afternoon (as Tally has posted) from the earlier one  - cold rather than very cold?

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Revised 16 to 30 day update

UK Outlook for Wednesday 13 Feb 2019 to Wednesday 27 Feb 2019:

Generally cold conditions are often likely to dominate the weather through mid to late February with the potential for some periods where winds are coming from the east. In the setup the weather is likely to be mixed with spells of showery rain, sleet and some snow most likely across the south and east, with northern and western parts perhaps more likely to be drier. Despite the prevalence of mainly cold weather, occasional milder interludes remain possible.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 

 

Well they've tweaked the longer range outlook this afternoon (as Tally has posted) from the earlier one  - cold rather than very cold?

Actually this is quite a backtrack. As I suggested yesterday, the backtrack will be written slowly over a number of days.

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Seems a much more sensible outlook and still good in many ways.

 

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Seems a much more sensible outlook and still good in many ways.

 

Yep its still good and covers many options - Easterly winds still in there 

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Actually this is quite a backtrack. As I suggested yesterday, the backtrack will be written slowly over a number of days.

It will? What does tomorrow''s update say and how are tomorrow's models looking?

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Revised 16 to 30 day update

UK Outlook for Wednesday 13 Feb 2019 to Wednesday 27 Feb 2019:

Generally cold conditions are often likely to dominate the weather through mid to late February with the potential for some periods where winds are coming from the east. In the setup the weather is likely to be mixed with spells of showery rain, sleet and some snow most likely across the south and east, with northern and western parts perhaps more likely to be drier. Despite the prevalence of mainly cold weather, occasional milder interludes remain possible.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Cold weather to continue into February with the potential for Easterly winds to develop , the cold weather will be mixed with rain and sleet around coastal areas with snow inland , in these set ups Northern and Western areas generally stay drier , there will be the odd milder interlude.

Sums it up nicely 

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Well they've tweaked the longer range outlook this afternoon (as Tally has posted) from the earlier one  - cold rather than very cold?

Yep, slight backtrack but a backtrack nonetheless. I expect the weather to continue much the same for the next two weeks at least short milder spells interspersed with rather cold ones. Standard winter fayre and certainly nothing to write home about. Roll on spring.

 

It will? What does tomorrow''s update say and how are tomorrow's models looking?

My hunch is that slowly but surely it will downgrade the extent of cold, downgrade further the winds from the East suggestion and the minions will not see the wood for the trees like weather fanatics like us do.

It is a hunch, but that is my belief of what will transpire over the coming days.

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Interesting video from Gav here explaining the split in models:

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Yep, slight backtrack but a backtrack nonetheless. I expect the weather to continue much the same for the next two weeks at least short milder spells interspersed with rather cold ones. Standard winter fayre and certainly nothing to write home about. Roll on spring.

I don't see how you label it as a 'backtrack'. Surely all they do is reflect in the written forecast what their long-range ensemble-based models are showing?  The word 'adjustment' describes the process without the judgemental tone implicit in 'backtrack'.

Anyone not wanting cold weather would describe the change as 'a welcome improvement'

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IMO, a cold February is still very much on the table.  Granted that the forecasts were wide of the mark for January but crititisms of the METO have been founded on models at 168hrs+ which we all know are on extremely dodgy ground after the SSW.  Surely the outlook is only predictable at this range in strong zonal setups.  Also I hasten to add, the Met bulletins in the last week have included the very crafty caveat: 'and IF very cold conditions were to occur there may be snow at times' or words to that effect.' 

It is easier to see mild coming than it is cold and the Met guys are subject to this truth to some degree as well us amateurs are.  As the models stand at this time I think the main issue is that the threat is from the east rather than from the north east or north as inititually stated.

 

 

 

I don't see how you label it as a 'backtrack'. Surely all they do is reflect in the written forecast what their long-range ensemble-based models are showing?  The word 'adjustment' describes the process without the judgemental tone implicit in 'backtrack'.

Anyone not wanting cold weather would describe the change as 'a welcome improvement'

Most of us here are wanting cold though. 😎

Matt Taylor has this LP further south showing more of Devon & Even cornwall in the snow even in channel isles! Karl?

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IMO, a cold February is still very much on the table.  Granted that the forecasts were wide of the mark for January but crititisms of the METO have been founded on models at 168hrs+ which we all know are on extremely dodgy ground after the SSW.  Surely the outlook is only predictable at this range in strong zonal setups.  Also I hasten to add, the Met bulletins in the last week have included the very crafty caveat: 'and IF very cold conditions were to occur there may be snow at times' or words to that effect.' 

It is easier to see mild coming than it is cold and the Met guys are subject to this truth to some degree as well us amateurs are.  As the models stand at this time I think the main issue is that the threat is from the east rather than from the north east or north as inititually stated.

 

 

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https://www.met.ie/forecasts/national-forecast

Tomorrow's situation really is the clichéd "nightmare for forecasters". Yesterday evening, the Irish Met was hedging its bets, forecasting rain, sleet and snow for much of Ireland. First thing this morning, they had more or less written of our chances of snow tomorrow. Now, it's back on again.

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US to shiver in 'once-in-a-generation' polar vortex

The US will shiver this week in a once-in-a-generation deep freeze, forecasters warn. The most extreme arctic blasts, caused by a spinning pool of cold air known as the polar vortex, could bring temperatures as low as -53C (-64F).

Weather officials in the state of Iowa have warned people to "avoid taking deep breaths, and to minimise talking" if they go outside. At least 55 million people are forecast to experience below zero temperatures.

A state of emergency has been declared in the Midwestern states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Illinois as well as in the normally more clement southern states of Alabama and Mississippi.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-47047089?ns_linkname=news_central&ns_campaign=bbc_weather&ns_source=twitter&ns_mchannel=social

US to shiver in 'once-in-a-generation' polar vortex

The US will shiver this week in a once-in-a-generation deep freeze, forecasters warn. The most extreme arctic blasts, caused by a spinning pool of cold air known as the polar vortex, could bring temperatures as low as -53C (-64F).

Weather officials in the state of Iowa have warned people to "avoid taking deep breaths, and to minimise talking" if they go outside. At least 55 million people are forecast to experience below zero temperatures.

A state of emergency has been declared in the Midwestern states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Illinois as well as in the normally more clement southern states of Alabama and Mississippi.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-47047089?ns_linkname=news_central&ns_campaign=bbc_weather&ns_source=twitter&ns_mchannel=social

They seem to get a once in a generation polar vortex most years.

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It’s really annoying how the extreme cold always seems to hit the US. You only have to look at Trump’s idiotic tweets about global warming to see the effect it has.

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It’s really annoying how the extreme cold always seems to hit the US. You only have to look at Trump’s idiotic tweets about global warming to see the effect it has.

But I though that global warning was supposed to reduce instances of severe cold occuring in any country, not increase them.

 

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