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tallyho_83
29 January 2019 14:07:19


 


https://youtu.be/ThuIt2EvrO0?t=1346


 


Originally Posted by: stophe 


 


Well spotted at 22:25 in the video!?


 


Also the fact she never even mentioned the possibility of it turning milder! Given - (No pun intended to Aidan.) but Given the fact the shorter range output suggest a return to less cold or milder conditions - she /the Met as seen in their text forecast are STILL bullish about it potentially turning colder as we head further into Feb. 


 


 


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


tallyho_83
29 January 2019 14:38:32


Sunday 3 Feb - Tuesday 12 Feb

A cold, bright and frosty start to Sunday, but cloud will probably start to edge in from the west, bringing rain, with risk of sleet and hill snow. This will tend to ease before it reaches northern and eastern areas, so here it may remain brighter. Thereafter, the weather is likely to remain changeable with further spells of rain, sleet and snow, interspersed by sunshine and showers. Winds will be brisk at times with gales around the coasts. After a cold start to February, temperatures may temporarily return closer to normal, particularly across the south, whilst northern parts are likely to remain cold. Overnight frosts are still likely to be widespread and towards the end of this period there is a greater chance of it becoming even colder.


Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Tue 29 Jan 2019
 
 

Wednesday 13 Feb - Wednesday 27 Feb

Cold or very cold conditions are often likely to dominate the weather throughout this period, with a greater than average chance of easterly or northeasterly winds becoming established. This would bring an enhanced risk of snow, as well as widespread and occasionally severe frosts, although the exact details remain very uncertain. In this setup, the driest and brightest weather is likely in the north and northwest. Despite the prevalence of cold weather, occasional milder interludes remain possible, most likely in the south, but this poses the risk of significant snow should very cold conditions become established.


Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Tue 29 Jan 2019

Originally Posted by: Arcus 


Met O's Updated text forecast: - A slight change/downgrade...? - It was inevitable anyway.


UK Outlook for Sunday 3 Feb 2019 to Tuesday 12 Feb 2019:


A cold, bright and frosty start to Sunday, but cloud, outbreaks of rain and hill snow may spread in later. Despite this, some areas may remain fine and mainly dry throughout. Thereafter, the weather is often likely to remain changeable with further spells of rain, sleet and snow, interspersed by sunshine and showers. Winds will be brisk at times with gales around exposed coasts and hills. After a cold start to February, temperatures may temporarily return closer to normal, particularly across the south, whilst northern parts are likely to remain cold. Overnight frosts are still likely to be widespread and towards the end of this period there is a greater chance of it becoming even colder.


UK Outlook for Wednesday 13 Feb 2019 to Wednesday 27 Feb 2019:


Generally cold conditions are often likely to dominate the weather through mid to late February with the potential for some periods where winds are coming from the east. In the setup the weather is likely to be mixed with spells of showery rain, sleet and some snow most likely across the south and east, with northern and western parts perhaps more likely to be drier. Despite the prevalence of mainly cold weather, occasional milder interludes remain possible.


Updated: 14:24 on Tue 29 Jan 2019 GMT


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
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Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


tallyho_83
29 January 2019 14:46:43
Met Office afternoon forecast by Alex Burkill: - Notice the met Office also show more wintry/snow showers widespread for tonight into tomorrow over the SW compared with the BBC foreacast?



Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


tallyho_83
29 January 2019 14:48:39


 


Met O's Updated text forecast: - A slight change/downgrade...? - It was inevitable anyway.


UK Outlook for Sunday 3 Feb 2019 to Tuesday 12 Feb 2019:


A cold, bright and frosty start to Sunday, but cloud, outbreaks of rain and hill snow may spread in later. Despite this, some areas may remain fine and mainly dry throughout. Thereafter, the weather is often likely to remain changeable with further spells of rain, sleet and snow, interspersed by sunshine and showers. Winds will be brisk at times with gales around exposed coasts and hills. After a cold start to February, temperatures may temporarily return closer to normal, particularly across the south, whilst northern parts are likely to remain cold. Overnight frosts are still likely to be widespread and towards the end of this period there is a greater chance of it becoming even colder.


UK Outlook for Wednesday 13 Feb 2019 to Wednesday 27 Feb 2019:


Generally cold conditions are often likely to dominate the weather through mid to late February with the potential for some periods where winds are coming from the east. In the setup the weather is likely to be mixed with spells of showery rain, sleet and some snow most likely across the south and east, with northern and western parts perhaps more likely to be drier. Despite the prevalence of mainly cold weather, occasional milder interludes remain possible.


Updated: 14:24 on Tue 29 Jan 2019 GMT


Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


"Generally cold conditions are often likely to dominate the weather through mid to late February" - They are still confident of cold and also no mention of it turning milder in the shorter range  just a " temps temporary return to closer to normal". 


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


David M Porter
29 January 2019 15:08:16


Geez they don’t know when to give up. 😂😂


Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 


If they are not seeing clear & consistent signals that make them change their outlook, why should they change anything?


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Arcus
29 January 2019 15:11:36


 


If they are not seeing clear & consistent signals that make them change their outlook, why should they change anything?


Originally Posted by: David M Porter 


Well they've tweaked the longer range outlook this afternoon (as Tally has posted) from the earlier one  - cold rather than very cold?


Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Gavin D
29 January 2019 15:16:10
Revised 16 to 30 day update

UK Outlook for Wednesday 13 Feb 2019 to Wednesday 27 Feb 2019:

Generally cold conditions are often likely to dominate the weather through mid to late February with the potential for some periods where winds are coming from the east. In the setup the weather is likely to be mixed with spells of showery rain, sleet and some snow most likely across the south and east, with northern and western parts perhaps more likely to be drier. Despite the prevalence of mainly cold weather, occasional milder interludes remain possible.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 
moomin75
29 January 2019 15:24:28


 


Well they've tweaked the longer range outlook this afternoon (as Tally has posted) from the earlier one  - cold rather than very cold?


Originally Posted by: Arcus 

Actually this is quite a backtrack. As I suggested yesterday, the backtrack will be written slowly over a number of days.


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Ally Pally Snowman
29 January 2019 15:27:57

Seems a much more sensible outlook and still good in many ways.


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Gooner
29 January 2019 15:32:46


Seems a much more sensible outlook and still good in many ways.


 


Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 


Yep its still good and covers many options - Easterly winds still in there 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


doctormog
29 January 2019 15:34:51


Actually this is quite a backtrack. As I suggested yesterday, the backtrack will be written slowly over a number of days.


Originally Posted by: moomin75 


It will? What does tomorrow''s update say and how are tomorrow's models looking?


Gooner
29 January 2019 15:36:57

Revised 16 to 30 day update

UK Outlook for Wednesday 13 Feb 2019 to Wednesday 27 Feb 2019:

Generally cold conditions are often likely to dominate the weather through mid to late February with the potential for some periods where winds are coming from the east. In the setup the weather is likely to be mixed with spells of showery rain, sleet and some snow most likely across the south and east, with northern and western parts perhaps more likely to be drier. Despite the prevalence of mainly cold weather, occasional milder interludes remain possible.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


Cold weather to continue into February with the potential for Easterly winds to develop , the cold weather will be mixed with rain and sleet around coastal areas with snow inland , in these set ups Northern and Western areas generally stay drier , there will be the odd milder interlude.


Sums it up nicely 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Solar Cycles
29 January 2019 15:42:13


 


Well they've tweaked the longer range outlook this afternoon (as Tally has posted) from the earlier one  - cold rather than very cold?


Originally Posted by: Arcus 

Yep, slight backtrack but a backtrack nonetheless. I expect the weather to continue much the same for the next two weeks at least short milder spells interspersed with rather cold ones. Standard winter fayre and certainly nothing to write home about. Roll on spring.

moomin75
29 January 2019 15:59:56


 


It will? What does tomorrow''s update say and how are tomorrow's models looking?


Originally Posted by: doctormog 

My hunch is that slowly but surely it will downgrade the extent of cold, downgrade further the winds from the East suggestion and the minions will not see the wood for the trees like weather fanatics like us do.


It is a hunch, but that is my belief of what will transpire over the coming days.


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
tallyho_83
29 January 2019 17:52:11
Interesting video from Gav here explaining the split in models:



Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


Gandalf The White
29 January 2019 19:11:29


Yep, slight backtrack but a backtrack nonetheless. I expect the weather to continue much the same for the next two weeks at least short milder spells interspersed with rather cold ones. Standard winter fayre and certainly nothing to write home about. Roll on spring.


Originally Posted by: Solar Cycles 


I don't see how you label it as a 'backtrack'. Surely all they do is reflect in the written forecast what their long-range ensemble-based models are showing?  The word 'adjustment' describes the process without the judgemental tone implicit in 'backtrack'.


Anyone not wanting cold weather would describe the change as 'a welcome improvement'



Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


UncleAlbert
29 January 2019 22:39:05

IMO, a cold February is still very much on the table.  Granted that the forecasts were wide of the mark for January but crititisms of the METO have been founded on models at 168hrs+ which we all know are on extremely dodgy ground after the SSW.  Surely the outlook is only predictable at this range in strong zonal setups.  Also I hasten to add, the Met bulletins in the last week have included the very crafty caveat: 'and IF very cold conditions were to occur there may be snow at times' or words to that effect.' 


It is easier to see mild coming than it is cold and the Met guys are subject to this truth to some degree as well us amateurs are.  As the models stand at this time I think the main issue is that the threat is from the east rather than from the north east or north as inititually stated.


 


 

Solar Cycles
29 January 2019 23:07:20


 


I don't see how you label it as a 'backtrack'. Surely all they do is reflect in the written forecast what their long-range ensemble-based models are showing?  The word 'adjustment' describes the process without the judgemental tone implicit in 'backtrack'.


Anyone not wanting cold weather would describe the change as 'a welcome improvement'



Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Most of us here are wanting cold though. 😎

tallyho_83
29 January 2019 23:09:09

Matt Taylor has this LP further south showing more of Devon & Even cornwall in the snow even in channel isles! Karl?




Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


David M Porter
29 January 2019 23:10:31


IMO, a cold February is still very much on the table.  Granted that the forecasts were wide of the mark for January but crititisms of the METO have been founded on models at 168hrs+ which we all know are on extremely dodgy ground after the SSW.  Surely the outlook is only predictable at this range in strong zonal setups.  Also I hasten to add, the Met bulletins in the last week have included the very crafty caveat: 'and IF very cold conditions were to occur there may be snow at times' or words to that effect.' 


It is easier to see mild coming than it is cold and the Met guys are subject to this truth to some degree as well us amateurs are.  As the models stand at this time I think the main issue is that the threat is from the east rather than from the north east or north as inititually stated.


 


 


Originally Posted by: UncleAlbert 



Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Lionel Hutz
30 January 2019 09:36:45

https://www.met.ie/forecasts/national-forecast


Tomorrow's situation really is the clichéd "nightmare for forecasters". Yesterday evening, the Irish Met was hedging its bets, forecasting rain, sleet and snow for much of Ireland. First thing this morning, they had more or less written of our chances of snow tomorrow. Now, it's back on again.


Lionel Hutz
Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland
68m ASL



Gavin D
30 January 2019 09:47:21

US to shiver in 'once-in-a-generation' polar vortex


The US will shiver this week in a once-in-a-generation deep freeze, forecasters warn. The most extreme arctic blasts, caused by a spinning pool of cold air known as the polar vortex, could bring temperatures as low as -53C (-64F).


Weather officials in the state of Iowa have warned people to "avoid taking deep breaths, and to minimise talking" if they go outside. At least 55 million people are forecast to experience below zero temperatures.


A state of emergency has been declared in the Midwestern states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Illinois as well as in the normally more clement southern states of Alabama and Mississippi.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-47047089?ns_linkname=news_central&ns_campaign=bbc_weather&ns_source=twitter&ns_mchannel=social

moomin75
30 January 2019 10:03:43


US to shiver in 'once-in-a-generation' polar vortex


The US will shiver this week in a once-in-a-generation deep freeze, forecasters warn. The most extreme arctic blasts, caused by a spinning pool of cold air known as the polar vortex, could bring temperatures as low as -53C (-64F).


Weather officials in the state of Iowa have warned people to "avoid taking deep breaths, and to minimise talking" if they go outside. At least 55 million people are forecast to experience below zero temperatures.


A state of emergency has been declared in the Midwestern states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Illinois as well as in the normally more clement southern states of Alabama and Mississippi.


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-47047089?ns_linkname=news_central&ns_campaign=bbc_weather&ns_source=twitter&ns_mchannel=social


Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

They seem to get a once in a generation polar vortex most years.


Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
Rob K
30 January 2019 10:04:43
It’s really annoying how the extreme cold always seems to hit the US. You only have to look at Trump’s idiotic tweets about global warming to see the effect it has.
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
David M Porter
30 January 2019 10:09:13

It’s really annoying how the extreme cold always seems to hit the US. You only have to look at Trump’s idiotic tweets about global warming to see the effect it has.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 


But I though that global warning was supposed to reduce instances of severe cold occuring in any country, not increase them.


 


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022

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