Specifically late January and/or early February.

I think if we are to see changes then it would be around this point as things look very messy. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_141_1.png

Thanks for that - gives me a fighting chance of seeing snow. 

Agreed!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_180_5.png 

Apart from the Alps AND of course mountains parts of Scandinavia - large parts of Europe except the UK being 6-9c or 9-12c by 0600am but large parts of Europe are around or above freezing and you really need to go to central Russia or Siberia to find true cold!!

I think it may be worth quoting the first part of the MetO's forecast to see exactly what they said in today's update:

UK Outlook for Saturday 2 Feb 2019 to Monday 11 Feb 2019:

Rain, and possibly outbreaks of sleet and snow will clear from the southeast on Saturday, whilst the north and west will be brighter with wintry showers. By Sunday the brighter, showery conditions should have become more widespread. Thereafter, it will stay unsettled with further spells of rain, sleet and snow, interspersed by brighter and showery interludes. Snow is possible across most parts of the country at times, with the potential for some occasionally disruptive snow, although there is uncertainty in any detail. It will often be windy with a risk of coastal gales, and staying generally cold with overnight frost and risk of ice. Towards the end of this period there is a low chance that the winds will turn east or northeasterly bringing even colder weather.

They have said quite clearly that there is only a low chance at present of winds becoming easterly/north-easterly before the middle of February, and the forecast for the forst week or so of the month, to my mind anyway, would seem to tie in reasonably well with Matt Taylor's forecast. Matt is clearly not expecting it to be either mild or cold all the time next week.

If you are proved right Kieren and the MetO is proved to be wrong, then hats off to you. However, I think it is a bit early for anyone to be trying to get one over the MetO at the moment by completely dismissing their thoughts for later on.

A reminder CFSv2 temp forecast for Feb:

um... what’s happened to the map? Now looks like a meme from some Egyptian soap opera!

Based on the 12z GFS op shorter range anomaly (the third image)...

What would be amusing would be to see hints of an easterly or NEly in the 18z GFS op FI. Oh wait...

I guess it’s what they would call a low chance.

Far-off FI I know, but as long as charts like this still pop up, then it would be more than a tad premature for anyone to write-off a cold spell for later next month:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=18&time=300&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

I realise this chart is for T+300 on the GFS pub run, but I wonder whether it is charts like this that the MetO are seeing in their forecast guidance for further into Feb that is leading them to issue the updates for the 16-30 day period that they are giving us. What they are saying is certainly based on something and I am pretty damn sure it is not "pie in the sky" thinking.

It's fair to say that this is the problem and beginning to be the story of the winter (at least so far). - yet again post +200 around T+228 we see a deja-vu of whats happening this week with HP building over NW Canada and Canadian Arctic and LP systems diving southwards into the mid western states and then into the NE seaboard and blasting up the jet! - Thus ruining our chances of building HLB.

The LOW pressure over NE USA did this 2 weeks ago after the easterly failure last weekend and is doing it this week and look's like it will do this again next week. The blocking is on the wrong side of the Pole to give us any sustained cold - i.e Canadian Arctic instead of Scandinavian Arctic etc. 

A lot of time to go I remember in winter 2016/2017 we (Exeter) didn;t see any snowflakes falling until 11th February - as that winter was mostly dry and mild when most of central and south eastern Europe including Greece were locked into the freezer for almost 1 month! (Jan 2017).

HOWEVER - IF this sort of pattern continues the best we can get is cold zonality but things could change however this milder theme is a growing trend now:

Yes there is still some hope DAVID but how patient do we have to be? Persistent blocking developing HP over N.Canada will continue to push LP and toughs of bitterly cold weather into the mid western states then into the eastern states, which then develops a trough of LP off the eastern seaboard of the USA and Canada really isn't helping at all!  Nice chart at +300 z but look what's developing of NE of Canada and USA yet again to potentially flatten any HLB and thus ruin our chances of building a block over Iceland/Greenland or even Scandinavia?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPNH18_288_1.png

We see the same old in FI where HP again tries so hard to make it to Scandinavia yet at the same time another LP develops off the eastern seaboard of the USA/Canada @ +360:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPNH18_360_1.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPNH18_372_1.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPNH18_384_1.png

One model one run but if it ruined our chances before many times there is every possible chance it could do it YET AGAIN!

Keeping fingers crossed as there is still potential for cold here but the above time weather pattern in the USA/Canada isn't helping us at all.

Thanks .

Spring is coming. 

So a week of colder than average then up to average by day 7? Ties in well with the Met Office outlook and the models.

I'm glad you said it because I thought that I must be hallucinating or something. 

I have done that, WM. What's your point?

If you have looked at the latter stages of the GFS 18z op run, you will maybe see why it would be a bit unwise at this stage, to say the least, for anyone to say that their forecast of potentially very cold weather for later in February is a definite bust.

They were ultimately proved to be correct with their thoughts last year wrt what they believed would happen towards the end of February. Given that, it would take a rather bold person to go against them this time, no matter what the op runs that we have access to might say.

If the GEFS 18z is to be believed then mild has the upper hand into FI!

The first model out this morning, ICON, shows the mild trend from last night's 12z GFS and ECM suites hasn't gone away.

Incidentally, despite mention of surface high pressure, I find it strange that nobody linked the T2M charts at all yesterday evening! Both GEFS and indeed ECM showed a marked increase in T2Ms to around average or slightly above, a step-change from the 6z and earlier suites. The reason is that in tandem with a pressure rise, a generally westerly flow is forecast - it's as if this weekend's low resets things closer to normal, a more northerly-tracking jet than of late.

Certainly the T2Ms from last night make grim viewing for anyone hoping for a cold week next week!

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=306&y=141&run=18&ville=Londres&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/meteo/eps/ensemble-tt6-london.gif

Gfs op has now has had 2 consecutive runs where significant blocking sets up in the later stages of unreliability...Maybe something to watch...Again!

But the Ensemble continues its milder trend.

It does look less cold to begin February but even the mild boosters have to acknowledge the developing trend back down to cold as we head towards mid-Feb. Will be interesting to see if it gathers pace over the coming days. Hopefully more so after we get these troublesome lows out of the way this week.

You can see why some would have thought cold could/can win out. The shallow lows above Scotland appear to be scuppering our chances again. Hope for mid Feb now - although not given up completely

As it stands the trend towards week 2 is milder despite the last 2 GFS op runs. It must be noted that, although generally in the chocolate teapot category in isolation, the GFS op runs can be useful for spotting trends in the longer term, so keep an eye on any recurring scenarios.