This is why the met see potential for a very cold outlook

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/runs/2019012612/gfs-2-78.png?12 

Big growly salivating beast waiting in the wings at the end of FI

indeed would be a potent Easterly 

Yes, the good thing is, its only 6 days away, if we can get that chart to t96 things could be fun.

They have been westerly for a few days now, having switched back around the 21st, then after a couple more days of really weak easterlies they went back to westerly for presumably the final time this winter. More importantly, they're ramping up now rather than increasing really slowly.

That's already knocked the reversal down to the 30hPa level and that too ends in a couple of days.

In theory it's after that that the effects work their way down into the troposphere.

If anything, now that the SSW is over it should increase reliability a bit. There are never any gaurantees with the models though!

A rain-to-snow event for those south of the M4 and/or east of Swindon:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs-para/royaume-uni/precipitations/72h.htm

Could be very messy if that comes off.

best type of event, would catch a few people out

Crazy how the NWP cannot get a handle on 5 days ahead, let alone beyond that.

That said, I like the UKMO 12z output at the moment in favour of anything else.

ECM has been rotten of late - hope its 12z follows UKMO.

Big ECM moment tonight, but it has been party pooper of late

Snow row page has been spruced up and now works properly on small screens. 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/snowrow.aspx

UKMO precipitation charts for Friday

00:00                                                                06:00                                                                12:00

ECM has channel low at 72h 

Look at that. Precipitation charts 6 days ahead showing no snow 

Pack it up lads #winterisover 

(I'm not sure why you've posted those Gavin tbh? I get it is a model discussion thread but you've just posted FI charts with no text/point of discussion?)

Tomorrow there will be wintry showers blowing in from the North Sea. Quite dry thereafter due to NW areas being more favoured.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2019012612/ECM1-72.GIF?26-0 

Looks the wrong side of marginal for the south though, IMO.

Thank you... I guess I won't be getting my hopes up then.

The best ones are just the right side of marginal 

It's gonna be a close call isn't it!  

Slightly south of the Channel and following the track predicted by GFSP and UKMO although the timing is slightly different.

By Wedneday noon it's away to the south-east - messy rain/snow mix initially but snow as the colder air is advected west - thickness (500-1,000 hPa) values down into the low 520s for much of the country here.  There's also another potent feaure over the west of Scotland.