This place really confuses me sometimes 😜. I’ve been a member since circa 2003/4. I can vividly remember tracking a toppler northerly, on this website, that gave a good 3/4inches of snow in Sheffield, when I was at University there. Even back then, there was plenty of discussion from the members about the fabled channel low and how rare they were, but how much snow they could give, especially for place like Portsmouth. Now we have one potentially forecast at T72 and there is quite a muted response to it, what gives?! Yes it may not happen, but to have the possibility at T72, surely that’s something to discuss in depth. IT COULD, *COULD* be a classic.....🤣

Originally Posted by: Deep Powder 

This place really confuses me sometimes 😜. I’ve been a member since circa 2003/4. I can vividly remember tracking a toppler northerly, on this website, that gave a good 3/4inches of snow in Sheffield, when I was at University there. Even back then, there was plenty of discussion from the members about the fabled channel low and how rare they were, but how much snow they could give, especially for place like Portsmouth. Now we have one potentially forecast at T72 and there is quite a muted response to it, what gives?! Yes it may not happen, but to have the possibility at T72, surely that’s something to discuss in depth. IT COULD, *COULD* be a classic.....🤣

Originally Posted by: Deep Powder 

This place really confuses me sometimes 😜. I’ve been a member since circa 2003/4. I can vividly remember tracking a toppler northerly, on this website, that gave a good 3/4inches of snow in Sheffield, when I was at University there. Even back then, there was plenty of discussion from the members about the fabled channel low and how rare they were, but how much snow they could give, especially for place like Portsmouth. Now we have one potentially forecast at T72 and there is quite a muted response to it, what gives?! Yes it may not happen, but to have the possibility at T72, surely that’s something to discuss in depth. IT COULD, *COULD* be a classic.....🤣

Originally Posted by: Deep Powder 

This place really confuses me sometimes 😜. I’ve been a member since circa 2003/4. I can vividly remember tracking a toppler northerly, on this website, that gave a good 3/4inches of snow in Sheffield, when I was at University there. Even back then, there was plenty of discussion from the members about the fabled channel low and how rare they were, but how much snow they could give, especially for place like Portsmouth. Now we have one potentially forecast at T72 and there is quite a muted response to it, what gives?! Yes it may not happen, but to have the possibility at T72, surely that’s something to discuss in depth. IT COULD, *COULD* be a classic.....🤣

Originally Posted by: Deep Powder 

Generally more effective when it's colder

Originally Posted by: fairweather 

This place really confuses me sometimes 😜. I’ve been a member since circa 2003/4. I can vividly remember tracking a toppler northerly, on this website, that gave a good 3/4inches of snow in Sheffield, when I was at University there. Even back then, there was plenty of discussion from the members about the fabled channel low and how rare they were, but how much snow they could give, especially for place like Portsmouth. Now we have one potentially forecast at T72 and there is quite a muted response to it, what gives?! Yes it may not happen, but to have the possibility at T72, surely that’s something to discuss in depth. IT COULD, *COULD* be a classic.....🤣

Originally Posted by: Deep Powder 

What you say is quite right. There is potential if the low is reasonably shallow and runs up the channel to deliver maybe as much as 4 to 6 inches  over some areas. 

The difference with past classic channel runners is deeper entrenched cold from east/ north east with deeper channel low, heavier precipitation and after small moderation of upper air temps but still well inside of marginal the deeper cold cuts back in.

Although things look very promising at the moment at three days out the track of the low could change by 100 miles or more with of course large implications to surface weather. By Monday afternoon we should have a good idea of the track although as we know from bitter experience things can change right up to t0.

Further ahead  post t192 and long range things are starting to look very, very interesting finally.

Originally Posted by: DPower 

When it's so finely balanced I agree that this won't be clear until late on Monday and possibly, if it's still finely balanced, Tuesday.  Your point about precipitation intensity is spot on: heavier snow will drive the freezing level towards the surface.  Nirvana is a frontal trough stalling somewhere across the southern counties, keeping the less cold air out of the mix.

The extent to which the Low develops will be a major factor. Shallow lows are more likely to slide away and produce less intensive precipitation.  Those who want a memorable snow event will want a deepening low moving along the south coast and stalling to our SE. A more northerly track brings the threat of rain to the south whilst a more southerly track leaves snow confined to the far southern counties.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

GFS 18z has an alternative scenario for Tuesday. Just rain for the far south coast with western areas further north at risk from coastal snow showers, drier inland.

edit: Thursday brings heavy precipitation for pretty much all of England and Wales, though snow looks more restricted to high ground on this run. Plenty of twists and turns to come.

Originally Posted by: SJV 

GFS 18z has an alternative scenario for Tuesday. Just rain for the far south coast with western areas further north at risk from coastal snow showers, drier inland.

edit: Thursday brings heavy precipitation for pretty much all of England and Wales, though snow looks more restricted to high ground on this run. Plenty of twists and turns to come.

Originally Posted by: SJV