What odds on a Scandi developing from here?

Ziluch giving our luck this winter! Maybe we could be in for a surprise - certainly a quieter spell in the N. Atlantic  at that time and that LP to our west at 240z looks like stalling and weakening all the time!.

Channel sliders just aren't that trendy anymore.... 

#beastfromtheeastisgettingoldtoonow

Skipping all the short term drama of will it wont it 

Ive been watching the far reaches of FI for the last few runs , interesting developments , worth keeping an eye on

Yes was thinking the same as if they had just changed the time at the top.

ON the 18z OP run the Azores HP tries to make it to Iceland & even Greenland finally! (where it should be!)

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_348_1.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_360_1.png

There's something I've not seen before for MBY... a "three snowflake" symbol on xcweather. ECM is much less snowy, although that does show some snow Tuesday into Wednesday. Both models currently have Thursday's event as rain here, with snow further north (the Midlands).

All looked a bit meh this morning until the ECM produced a stunningly cold.run . With the major low going SE . 

Stunningly cold? I must be looking at a different run to you - I would describe "stunningly cold" as equalling the -2 and -3 daytime highs we saw last February. Instead it's a couple to a few degrees above zero generally, with milder weather into the south over the weekend.

Here are the 2M temperatures for Wednesday afternoon, for example:

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/temperature/20190130-1500z.html

OK not stunningly cold , but its the best run this morning by quite along way. I think we can forget the first low next week thats going into France its the larger one after that could be the major snow maker. 

Hmm, I guess it depends where you are. For exmaple:

• I won't be forgetting the first low next week, as it's been showing a period of snow down here on Tuesday night into Wednesday consistently since Friday's 6z GFS. It may correct southwards, of course, but the models have been unusually consistent with its snow-bringing potential.
• The GFS, compared to ECM, is much snowier this morning - with snow around next weekend. ECM just has a not-very-cold northerly instead, with rain showers clipping the east: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/significant-weather/20190203-0600z.html

Have to say its looking incredibly complex next week regarding snow. Forecasters nightmare . Wouldnt believe any forecast its a nowcast situation

Fair enough , as I say its an incredibly messy set up next week . Its a now cast job. 

Beast from the East sitting growling over far eastern Europe but needs someone from synoptics to come along and let it off the leash

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4

In the meantime, a succession of cold Atlantic lows promise marginal snow for some (tricky to forecast, as has been said), but even that on a 'here today, gone tomorrow' basis.

It is indeed. At least the good news for snow fans is that with all these fronts around the risk of widespread snow (if it's cold enough!) is higher than it'd normally be - and I'd say as it stands you'd have to be very unlucky not to have seen some snow falling by this time next week.

The T+72 "fax" chart shows this well:

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2.gif

GEFS continues to be at odds with the MetO extended outlook. You'd expect one to buckle sooner rather than later.

Many models show a band of snow on Tue night crossing most of England. Not the low as such but associated trough.  So whilst the actual low does look like going south there are still snow opportunities across a wider area Tue night. 

The colder than average conditions certainly don’t look like a “here today, gone tomorrow” situation generally in the U.K. and more specifically in the north (a sub -2°C mean temperature over the next week in parts). The cold anomalies (Russia excepted) are across Western Europe, with much of Scotland colder than much of Poland on average over the next week.

For information, these observations and the link above are based solely on the GFS 00z operational run and other models are available. 

With extremely cold air over Canada the model seems to want to intensify the jet whilst allowing the Azores to ridge into Europe creating spring like temperatures but with cloud and drizzle.

A lot of scatter at the end of ECM ENS.

Likewise for Banbury but for Thursday I have Snow ( 3cm) with a return to drizzle , will be an interesting week for sure 

I haven't spotted the 'parts' where the -2C mean applies, but a review of several forecasts suggests temps in populated parts of Scotland to be 5C/-2C (day/night) down to southern England 7c/1c. Below average, sure, and snow quite possible, but then melting again except at altitude - and the synoptic charts (GFS and ECM) repeatedly bring in a cold low from the NW followed by less cold weather for a day or so (not to say that I'm not watching the unpredictable channel low on Tue with interest)

There are indeed small cold anomalies across western Europe, but the BIG cold anomalies referred to in my original post are those, as you say, in Russia. Until that source of air reaches us, any snow outside mountainous regions will be wet and inclined to thaw, not 'deep and crisp and even'.

Have a look in the top image, the “parts” are a about half of Scottish mainland, easy to miss I know but look a little north of the Watford Gap if you can it may help. 

As for a forecast of 5°C through the week here? It is unlikely to reach that here today and the rest of the week is forecast to be colder. 

So yes a colder than average outlook across much of W Europe and notably cold across much of Scotland based on the chart you linked to. I’m not sure why you felt the need to start talking about forecasts based on other data when my comments were based on hose charts and I made that explicitly clear.