Can anyone confirm which model do xcweather use ? Thanks Andy

according to this website, my town gets 9.8cm on Tuesday evening!? I don’t actually believe it 

It's the GFS op run.

The 06z ICON which is currently coming out has Tuesday’s feature further south

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/run/icon-0-54.png?27-06

Correct from my experience. 7cms of snow Wednesday morning round here had disappeared to nowt by 6pm Friday.

Sounds possible IMO

So, in a nutshell, little change overnight. A very messy, marginal situation for the week ahead. Plenty of precipitation around; marginal uppers.  I’d be amazed if some places didn’t get a reasonable snowfall but it’s not - and never has been - a big freeze, so it’s unlikely to hang around on the ground for days.

If I were a forecaster I think I’d be booking the week off because it’s going to be very tricky to get right.

I wonder if a drive back from Bristol Tuesday evening would be best avoided.. 

It’s difficult to make any travel plans, the models are not really being much help in the traditional ‘reliable’ period 

Perhaps but given the timescales I would watch each model’s output to look for a trend. The GFS 06z run will be out soon. 

We will have to wait until this evening for the next ECM update.

At least up here the mostly dry and cold/very cold week looks a bit more certain with precipitation harder to come by. In the south it’s a big risk for a big reward potential scenario and not one I’d like to call at this range.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=0&time=216&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref 

Looks like a shift downwards in temperatures from both the 6z UKV and the 0z EPS, at least down here.

The former now has a much stronger snow (rather than sleet) signal for the early hours on Wednesday, while the EPS now has mean maxima for London of 3C from Wednesday to Saturday inclusive, with 4C for Sunday. The 12z suite had 4C for Wednesday, 5C from Thursday to Saturday and 4C for Sunday.

One or two degrees may not seem like much, but it makes a heck of a difference when you're in such a marginal situation.

PS - the op ECM was not well supported by day 10; its afternoon London high of 8.5C compares with a mean maximum of 3.6 (and a 90th percentile of 6.9C.)

https://weather.us/forecast/2643743-london/ensemble/euro

EDIT: By the weekend the 10th percentile snow depth for London is 1cm. The statisticians amongst you will know what that means.

Unfortunately 24hrs after that it has unsprung again http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2019012700/ECU0-240.GIF?27-12 

Yesterday it was looking very good for our patch. Today still ok but Irish Sea convection opportunities have become more limited.

Beware low pressure systems/disturbances popping up in the south of England - they will probably not get this far north, and they cut off our opportunity for snow showers.

Note that Wednesday is now looking completely dry here. 

The 06z GFS op seems largely unchanged for Tuesday compared with the previous op run 

Both Beeb and Met O forecasts have indeed gone colder snowier this week. Imby both have significant snow event Wednesday morning. forecasts will change but highlights the possibilities 

Seems clear to me that things are trending milder or at least less cold and this has been consistent now for several days!

 But the LR Models and Met Office say NO!

LP later in the week pushing snow in

Crikey. thursday,s slider looks v interesting.

Countryfile forecast will be on the fence.  Could be rain, could be snow. At least it wont be dry

Weather warnings now out 

www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2019-01-29

Taking another look. Uppers not condusive for snow so need to rely on intensity and heights for snowfall

The GFS doesn't have it as a slider - it gets up to Central Scotland !

Looking further ahead, no strong signals this morning but pressure is rising to the South and much of the cold is being lifted out of Central Europe.