Lovely to look at!

Thanks! although I think that chart takes into account the fact that every single snowflake that falls will settle because I doubt 98% of the country will have lying snow by Friday but maybe 40 to 45%. But yes 98% of the country will have had snow falling by next Friday that's more likely! The rest will see sleety rain or heavy wet snow with little or no accumulations - esp for the south! 

I think Salisbury Plain could get a good covering!  - Again depends to the track of that low on Tuesday. 

There's a signal on this run at least for more blocking in FI, with usual spread of cold, average or mild options. The T2M chart shows a lot of scatter from 5th Feb onwards.

Whether it's right not is of course highly debateable - GFS has seemingly toyed with a more blocked FI for weeks now but it doesn't seem to be getting any closer.

February traditionally is a more blocked month so it might be right I 'spose - you'd have to think our current chilly but unsettled regime will fade at some point <shrug>

Has someone hacked your account Neil lol 

😂 maybe just for a few minutes.

I’m as frustrated as many are with the unfulfilled promise thus far and as we enter Feb my thoughts turn to Spring. There is of course plenty of time for things to change but for here it really has to be a decent Easterly to deliver and that synoptic is proving hard to get down to a reliable range.

I’m guessing this doesn’t count 

Why is the GFS P always better than the normal run? Is it just thrown in there to keep us interested

throw evaporative cooling into the mix and possible night time precipitation then I for one wouldn’t want to be a meteorologist predicting this weeks twists and turns 

i am looking forward to the 1cm of snow from the depth charts for Edinburgh... I think there will be a few surprises this coming week.

meanwhile, I still look East for signs of the high pressure backing West.  Signal is coming and going in the ensembles post day 10.

Interesting 12z UKMO

Overall so far this afternoon there’s still not much clarity re. the details but the theme is still cold.

UKMO really isn't interested in deep LP's - snow around if the above verify 

GFS @ 120 Massively different to UKMO

GFS 144

UKMO 144

What a difference 

That really is a stunning chart huge HLB almost out of nowhere. Best UKMO run of the winter.

UKMO looks far more plausible. hopefully the low will keep trending SE

UKMO is 10/10 GFS 7/10 

Apparently the zonal winds at 10hPa are about to return to westerlies as the effects of the SSW fade.  I wonder if that will result in even more uncertainty?

Certainly the 12z output from GFS and UKMO is different to the previous run and different between the two models.  I wonder what the parallel run will produce?

If the UKMO model is correct then there'll be some backing away from the expectation of milder conditions later next week.

UKMO for midday Tuesday and Wednesday, showing quite an intense LP running east across northern France.

Thickness (500-1,000 hPa) values for London around 528dam on Tuesday and 526dam for Wednesday.  For the IoW 530 and 525.