A number of runs are beginning to suggest that the changeable and cold pattern could be replaced by a very average one. Could revert but TBH things are now beginning to look disastrous. This winter could still finish Nature 1 : Machines 0.

That is what I am seeing Doc, a very odd comment 

You tell him how it really is, Peter.

The GEFS mean (t850hPa) is still around -5°C at day 10. I would not be surprised if the ECM 12z is around that value too. Anything but below average looks a less likely option. The problem is, for most people, it’s just not quite “cold enough”.

Other than the dropping of the easterly later this week, what happened to the changes you were expecting the MetO to make to their extended forecast during the weekend, Ian?

I'd say reliability in this set-up extends beyond day 4. As for the latter days you call 'cold' I don't really call 5-7C cold in late Jan.

They made them. They dropped the easterly and did a volte face for the end of this week.

it was supposed to be cold today and at 8c I would hardly call that cold? 

Chilly, nippy, a bit parky? 

A couple of points:

I said below the long term average and more importantly I am talking about the average for most locations in the UK looking forward. i.e. the model output.

It was not a report on today’s conditions, which have been a little below the long term average in most locations  anyway https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/current?LANG=en&CONT=euro&LAND=UK&REGION=0003&SORT=2&UD=0&INT=24&TYP=tmax&ART=kartealle&RUBRIK=akt&DATE=--&CEL=C&SI=mph 

White Meadows are the GEFS ensembles not below the long term average for the whole run?

There seems to be little point in posting data and evidence if it is routinely dismissed by opinion.

You need to move away from the south coast. At the nearest station to me, Charlwood in Surrey, which isn't really that far from you, the minimum of the hourly observations was -6.4C at 6 am and the maximum 4.3C at 1 pm. By 5 pm it was back down to 1.3 C. A cold day by anyone's standards/

Fantastic run from ECM - this is what I wanted to see.

Since the actual outcome is invariably the opposite to what ECM is forecasting 8 to 10 days hence, we can all get excited about the proper winter weather due to arrive in that timescale. Hurrah!

Yes, clearly a zonal outlook. These ridiculous emotive posts with no evidence whatsover to back them up are tiresome and amateurish 

12z ECM looks generally cool or cold with further snow opportunities for the NW. 

A brief milder incursion Friday/Saturday.

That’s my best attempt at objective analysis.

Can definitely tell it’s Blue Monday today.  :D 

.

The ECMWF 12z run, has mild air on Thursday second half, Jan. 24th, and mild on Friday, and mild upto Saturday but cold with blustery showers in midday and PM.

Cold for Sunday 26th Jan. Cold, mild again for Monday and then Cold for Tuesday 29th Jan., Mild and Rainy on Wednesday 30th Jan.

Some showers turning wintry on the hills on Saturday and Sunday, Monday less cold in the South and SW, but SE cold at first.

Cold with wintry showers and snow for the hills Tuesday 29th January, Low Pressure, more Low Pressure with heavy rain and less cold on Wednesday.

Active Low Pressure on Saturday, that breaks up a little on Sunday, Monday Low Pressure in the West and North, SE early.

.

It maxed at 3.7c here today, I'd call that a cold day, what with it being 4c below average. Tomorrow will be at similar levels as will the rest of the week until Friday when the milder blips rolls through.

Your reliability comment is, being charitable, baffling. Reliability is not over 4 days when the charts show a cold unsettled flow but when they show a day or so of milder but not excessively mild air in FI they're back to being reliable again? 

The LP that brings the FI milder air on the ECM run brushes the Azores HP aside on it's way to sinking south east through Europe. This is the same pattern we're currently in, just the LP has that bit more mild air in it. There's weak northern blocking showing in the frame too. Now it might go mild from there but it also might well not. I'm guessing not based on the last 10 days or so of charts.

Some of the comments in here about disaster charts are again being charitable, daft. It's a chilly and cold set up with the possibility of milder incursions at times. Fri/Sat being one time and possibly T240 IF ECM op run has managed to 100% accurately work out where a LP that doesn't exist yet will end up and how much milder air it'll have in it.

As Doc mentions it's a bit frustrating if people are just going to ignore what the charts are showing and make exaggerated doom and gloom comments. It also makes this thread borderline pointless for anyone looking at it for an idea of what the models are projecting, one reason why I never read it before I've looked at the GFS ens and ECM run so I can see what's being shown before reading the hyperbole.

Yep. We could do with an alternative thread for objective analysis and a separate rampy/moany one. 

Still some cool weather on offer this week apart from Fridays milder incursion, back to somewhat cooler at the weekend.

It is not surprising though is it Joe? We have been well and truly led up the garden path this season and now ECM is showing classic zonality in 10 days time (the ECM operational, not the GEFS ensemble spread).

The EC46 dayers, Glosea long range, CFS and the rest have been taken for a bunch of chumps by the look of it and taken us along for a ride to nowhere. I really am going to keep out of here for a week now - sick of wasting my time peering into a future which never arrives, unless it is grey with cold rain.

That would be good. Sponsored by Tena.

Anyway, the output to me remains cool to cold in the reliable with a slightly less cold day or so to come, and a signal for increasingly southerly tracking lows longer term. If It's Zonality Jim, It's Not As We Know It.

Yep, might have been 8c right on the coast but I only had 5.9c much closer to the Solent. Expect more of the same this week other than Friday.

.....and one where mild outlooks are banned and no mention of the Azores high but snowmageddon posts at T+240 only! Where GFS = good when cold and = bad when mild !  I find people's judgement of "objective" on here means "agree with me". 

Anyway, based on my own personal reality it still appears like it has done for a week or more except for the much milder three day blip. Then still a lengthly cold spell but no severe cold. 850's are similar but with a different outcome causing them. Despite the many snowfall ramps was it ever much better except for various outlying individual op runs?

It’s always worth keeping an eye on things like this on op runs just in case it is picking up on something (re. the end of the ECM 12z op) and if it appears in two of the next three or four runs or gets backing from the other models on the next run or two it may be a sign of change.

Having said that the 12z ECM t850hPa ensemble mean looks more or less unchanged by day 10 and similiar to the GEFS.