ECM looks very snowy day 9 and 10. It's similar if not as spectacular as the 0z run but good consistency. 

 

 

Just a pity its way out in la la land as those charts could produce copious amounts of snow.  A fascinating week of model watching awaits. 

Hiding-behind-the-sofa-stuff for the" weak-chinned" amongst us.

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Some nice charts knocking around tonight. Given that Trop disruptive response to the SSW is due to maintain itself through all of Feb then the potential (and it's only potential) should remain strong for the rest of winter, and there's a chance that we're only looking at the aperitifs here, never mind the amuse -bouche, starter, main course and dessert.

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Some nice charts knocking around tonight. Given that Trop disruptive response to the SSW is due to maintain itself through all of Feb then the potential (and it's only potential) should remain strong for the rest of winter, and there's a chance that we're only looking at the aperitifs here, never mind the amuse -bouche, starter, main course and dessert.

The dessert would presumably be Baked Alaska.

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I can't recall seeing such marked trough disruption before where all the surrounding air is cold.

 

Yes its definitely unusual could be a memorable event if we get lucky that is.

 

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Brian - could you explain this chart to me as I find it so confusing with the heavy snow to south and many western parts of country yet heavy rain to the north east? and those temps? Thanks

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I know these mean charts have their limitations but the ECM 12z ensemble chart shows that the op run was remarkably close to the mean for the entire duration. This one is for Aberdeen but the others I have checked are similiar:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/ecmwf/graphe_ens3.php?mode=0&x=&y=&run=12&lat=57.125506072874494&lon=-2.264150943396224&runpara=0

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I know these mean charts have their limitations but the ECM 12z ensemble chart shows that the op run was remarkably close to the mean for the entire duration. This one is for Aberdeen but the others I have checked are similiar:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/ecmwf/graphe_ens3.php?mode=0&x=&y=&run=12&lat=57.125506072874494&lon=-2.264150943396224&runpara=0

 

which is a great sign for a cold spell, definitely going the right way

Brian - could you explain this chart to me as I find it so confusing with the heavy snow to south and many western parts of country yet heavy rain to the north east? and those temps? Thanks

It looks to me as if one of those two charts must have somehow failed to update from the previous run, even though the timestamps indicate that they both have. Always assuming that one isn't from the operational run and the other from the parallel run.

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It looks to me as if one of those two charts must have somehow failed to update from the previous run, even though the timestamps indicate that they both have. Always assuming that one isn't from the operational run and the other from the parallel run.

When I look at the corresponding charts on Wetterzentrale, the temperatures are far lower than shown in the chart posted here, ranging from 1C is south Wales and NW England (and below freezing over much of Scotland) to 7C over parts of East Anglia.

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Brian - could you explain this chart to me as I find it so confusing with the heavy snow to south and many western parts of country yet heavy rain to the north east? and those temps? Thanks

i would say that the first charts is showing a low pressure system over the midlands with a very cold NNW airflow behind turning any showers to sleet and snow. Over the mountains of wales the cold air would be undercutting and turning the back edge of the main front to snow. However 29th is a long way off.

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Cfs v2 update 😱😱😱🥶🥶🥶🥶🥶 ❄️ ❄️ ❄️

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/euT2mMonInd1.gif 

it is correct intermixing of a very cold n/w polar air s/e for n/e

 

dew about -8 Fh about 600 M

Brian - could you explain this chart to me as I find it so confusing with the heavy snow to south and many western parts of country yet heavy rain to the north east? and those temps? Thanks

D10 has the cold over the UK

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Brian - could you explain this chart to me as I find it so confusing with the heavy snow to south and many western parts of country yet heavy rain to the north east? and those temps? Thanks

The other answers to your question are all wrong. The reason is simply that the wrong variable was plotted on that chart, the correct values are below. The problem should not occur on the GFS18z which starts in a few minutes.

 

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Cfs v2 update 😱😱😱🥶🥶🥶🥶🥶 ❄️ ❄️ ❄️

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/euT2mMonInd1.gif

The positive anomalies for Iceland, Greenland and Spitzbergen suggests that February is expected to be dominated by easterlies rather than northerlies.

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The other answers to your question are all wrong...

Not all of them. Mine was essentially correct, even though of course I couldn't identify the precise reason for the discrepancy.

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No doubt some newspapers will be excreting scaremongering and nonsensical weather stories this week, so some context;

Left pic: cold air when we had beast from the east
Right pic: cold air end of this week

Cold air at end of this week isn't exceptional - at all. Just colder. pic.twitter.com/kxJK4j0hwA

— Liam Dutton - Weatherman (@liamdutton) January 13, 2019

 

The positive anomalies for Iceland, Greenland and Spitzbergen suggests that February is expected to be dominated by easterlies rather than northerlies.

Yes or else Iceland would be below average in terms of temperatures too. But above for them would suggest easterly..! You're right!

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The other answers to your question are all wrong. The reason is simply that the wrong variable was plotted on that chart, the correct values are below. The problem should not occur on the GFS18z which starts in a few minutes.

 

So for that time period (which of course will change) but as show the precipitation type was correct but the temps were wrong i take it!?

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So for that time period (which of course will change) but as show the precipitation type was correct but the temps were wrong i take it!?

Basically yes. GFS provides tmax2m and tmin2m variables. Both the max and min UK charts on that run were using the tmax2m.  

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