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No doubt some newspapers will be excreting scaremongering and nonsensical weather stories this week, so some context;Left pic: cold air when we had beast from the eastRight pic: cold air end of this weekCold air at end of this week isn't exceptional - at all. Just colder. pic.twitter.com/kxJK4j0hwA— Liam Dutton - Weatherman (@liamdutton) January 13, 2019
No doubt some newspapers will be excreting scaremongering and nonsensical weather stories this week, so some context;Left pic: cold air when we had beast from the eastRight pic: cold air end of this weekCold air at end of this week isn't exceptional - at all. Just colder. pic.twitter.com/kxJK4j0hwA
18z doing something horrid with the Azores HP againhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=18&time=180&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref
It is also (yet again) inconsistent with its previous run.
The 18z seems to be reverting to the previous pattern of drawing a chunk of the polar vortex down toward the British Isles
Again by day 4 the GFS 18z is out of line with all the other main models, including the GFSP (which is much more like the UKMO and ECM 12z output).
Yes, the new (Parallel) model looks better in terms of consistency.
At T+96 the 12z and 18z are almost identical.
That is a beautiful chart.
Those living on the east coast better hope and pray that the 250 hrs part of the 18z GFS doesn't end up as being the verified scenario.
Exactly Ian. Shades of '53 there with a deep area of low pressure moving west to east just to the north of Scotland, then SE wards into the North Sea with a considerable storm surge.
This does also happen to co-incide with very high tides on the 23rd/24th, which are bigger than those last week which caused some coastal flooding.
Based on the last few runs I wouldn’t place much faith in the GFS op run in isolation at 50 never mind 250hrs!For what it’s worth at day 6 the 18z GFSP is quite consistent with its previous run and the ECM.
I heard someone say the operational will eventually become the parallel run anyway?
No the parallel (FV3) is due to replace the current GFS in the next few weeks.
You know what I am going to say? But I won't say it!
I think it’s fair to say the models are utterly clueless at the moment. Maybe in a week’s time we might have some clue as to how the cold spell, if any, will shape up. Until then I think it’s pointless looking. (Of course, the Scottish members should see some cold weather before then)
I think 'clueless' is harsh: there's decent agreement now on the pattern for the coming week.
The main issue remains the lack of high latitude blocking on the output. Being reliant on cold zonality and getting the jetstream far enough south without blocking looks precarious. It may well be that the models are still deciphering the signals from the SSW.
At the moment I am still cautious bordering on underwhelmed in terms of this being anything exceptional.
Disappointing Para tonight - before the 12z showed LP sinking southwards pulling in bitter easterly winds from 23rd, allowing HP to build north esp toward Iceland:
18z run brings in SW OR WESTERLY Winds and temps of +9 to 12c with low pressure strengthening to our north esp over Iceland and south of Greenland: - Couldn't be more different even if it tried to!?
Where do we go from here!?
At least the control run keeps our hopes alive:
Could be quite a lot of heavy wet snow or sleet if the below materialises (i doubt it will of course but if).
18z ensembles disappointing but at least it will be cold
I can't get the ensembles chart up or any members - it still shows Saturday? Anyone else have this issue?
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49987&model=gfs&var=2&run=18&lid=ENS&bw=